March is the traditional peak season of plastic film production, coupled with the previous price continued to decline, there is some stimulus to demand, demand is expected to improve the most basic late market, the market has some basis for the rise.Global monetary policy is still tight, China's economic policy They are also following the market adjustment. The macro economy should not be overly optimistic or limit the increase.
In February 2018, a sudden turmoil in the US stock market hit the world financial markets, with the global stock market declining again on February 5, with the largest decline in the U.S. stocks after the global stock market crash on February 2. The S & P500 index The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit the largest one-day percentage decline since August 2011, successfully erasing the gains since 2018. Affected by the plunge in the stock market, the domestic linear futures and spot stocks dropped sharply consecutively, ending up a narrow range of 4 months Shock pattern.At the same time, the Spring Festival small holiday approaching, the market actively markdowns, the Spring Festival holidays return, stocks rise all stocks, the market continued weakness, as of press time, linear 9300-9650 yuan / ton.
For the latter part of the market, the expected improvement in demand is the most basic positive, from the practice, in December, January, February and March are the main film production peak, from December to February month, the peak demand has not been reflected .March production in the traditional peak season in March, the early film mulch slow, this month or relatively concentrated production of raw materials inventory is not high, at any time to find a small amount of replenishment-based film demand in the off-season, the Northeast has a spring shed Membrane demand, the large-scale enterprises in the northern greenhouse have a certain film production, production of other small sparse plants, raw material demand is limited.In addition, from a mentality point of view, February prices continued to decline, there is some stimulus to demand.
High oil shocks, the cost of the face of market support into the March, the oil demand is still in the off-season, the refinery started down and the rise in the United States crude oil stocks made the main tone back.But Cushing area stocks fell for 9 weeks, WTI Nearly the end of the price remains strong, which also limits the space for oil prices down.In addition, this year, the United States remained strong oil product consumption, which also support the oil market too much atmosphere.Therefore, the fundamentals, the short-term oil prices or high wide The main shock amplitude.
Overall, the late market has the basis for the rise, the rate by the macro-surface and inventory digestion conditions.Finally, the inventory of petrochemical stocks increased, the port inventory has increased, the middle part of the stock is too high, the overall social inventory high .In March global will enter Canada If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it will not rule out the asymmetric interest rate hike by China's central bank to raise the benchmark interest rate for deposits. Key domestic policies in the two sessions in March will have some impact on the structural market. The global monetary policy is still in the midst of a downward trend Tight trend, China's economic policy is also following the market adjustment, the macroeconomic should not be overly optimistic.