The harvest machinery market in China experienced an unprecedented downturn in 2017. From the entire harvester machinery market to the United Harvest Machinery market, from the cereal combine harvester market to the corn combine harvester market, the scope of the decline has been wide and the intensity is extremely strong, which can be described as many years Market research shows that in 2017, China sold a total of 529,000 harvesters of various harvestings, down 9.51% over the same period of last year, of which 239,900 units of combined harvesters were sold, down 17.2% over the same period of last year.
Structural adjustment, combine harvester market opened a new mode of transformation
2017 combine harvester market area sales map
In 2017, the combine harvester market in our country opened a new mode of structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading, highlighting the distinctive features of the traditional hot markets that experienced the rapid rise of the Waterloo and the newborn markets.Market surveys show that as of the end of November 2017, Type combine harvester, cereal track self-propelled combine harvester, corn harvester sales while diving, decreased by 35.39%, 21.92% and 36.46% respectively.
In stark contrast to the sharp decline in the market of the three major grain crop harvesters, the other combine harvesters saw a substantial increase in the market. As of the end of November 2017, the accumulated sales of more than 90,000 units increased by 14.39% from the previous year, Accounting for 37.78% of the total, up 10.43% over the same period in 2016, forming a market demand pattern of one-third of the world, including livestock harvesting machines such as green forage harvesters, balers, rakes and silages, Crop harvesters and other integrated harvesters become the new darling of the market, is an unprecedented strength and speed to reshape the combined harvester market, the new pattern.And we can conclude that: the combine harvester market transformation curtain has been opened This is no longer a theory of inference or prediction, but a living reality.
It is no coincidence that the larger decline in the harvesting machine market in 2017 is due to the interaction of multiple negative factors.
First of all, the market is in the transition from small to large.From the entire harvester market, in the annual demand of more than 500,000, nearly 70% of the demand by the small, low-end harvester market support.In recent years, market demand Gradually to large-scale high-end transition, the decreasing demand has become the inevitable trend of the market.
Second, the market is in the "windowless window period" transforming from the traditional hot market to other markets.With the traditional hot market of three major grain crops harvesters such as wheat, corn and rice, as the mechanization level increases year by year, the rigid demand drops sharply, and the combine harvester The market loses its strong support, while other harvesters such as economy and livestock husbandry are in their initial stage of development and the market has become an 'empty window', causing the market to decline.
Second, the hot market collective 'diving' is closely related to the multiple unfavorable factors such as the adjustment of agricultural planting structure, demand saturation and cyclical changes in market demand in recent years, for example, the decline of wheat harvesters comes from the market saturation and the rigid demand declines. The major factors come from the cyclical changes in the market.Reforming agricultural planting structure such as grain reforming, grain reforming and converting rice to beans has formed a strong impact on the corn harvester market.
Fourth, food prices down, consumer purchasing power decline in recent years, China's three major grain prices have declined, a direct impact on consumers' pocketbook, purchasing power fell.At the same time, food prices downstream farmers enthusiasm for grain has also formed a greater impact, Scarcity in some areas has had a major impact on the harvester market.
Fifth, the decline in investment income as a combined demand for the recovery of the machine market, the return on investment needs will have a fundamental impact.As we all know, the hot market saturation means that the combination of a sharp increase in the market share of holdings, operating price competition more The more intense, a direct impact on investment income, have a greater impact on potential investors.
Sixthly, the renewal period is lengthened, which directly affects the renewal cycle of harvesters due to the decrease of purchasing power and stimulates the development of second-hand agricultural machinery market, which has a greater negative impact on market increment.
Finally, the subsidy for farm machinery has been reduced by a single subsidy. Drought in some regions and uncertainties associated with the land transfer have also had some impact on the harvester market.
Ice fire with the furnace, the mainstream area accounted for a strong rise
China's main harvester regional markets are mainly concentrated in the northeast, Inner Mongolia and Huang-Huai-Hai areas, in recent years, Hubei market squeezed into the mainstream demand for Taiwan's regional 'club.'
The regional market of harvester in 2017 showed two outstanding features: First, the regional concentration increased. There were 9 sales areas with more than 90,000 units and a total of 180,700 units of combine harvesters were sold, a slight decrease of 4.39% as compared with that of the same period last year. Proportion 75.35%, up 10.09 percentage points from the same period of 2016. Second, ICE, with 3 to 5 In the top 9 regional markets, only the major markets of Henan, Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang have risen sharply, Respectively sold 38,200 units, 10,600 units and 10,300 units, representing an increase of 8.52%, 41.33% and 39.19% respectively over the same period of previous year, accounting for 15.93%, 4.42% and 4.3% respectively, up 3.78, 1.83 and 1.74 percentage points from the same period of last year. Although the sales volume in Shandong reached 30,000 units in 2017, it dropped slightly by 3.38% from the same period of last year, while the diving in Anhui market saw a sales volume of 21,700 units, a sharp decline of 36.55% over the same period of previous year.
Increased competition, concentration is gradually dispersed
In 2017, the competition in the market of harvester in our country is complicated and chaotic. On the one hand, the mainstream brands' competitive advantages are weakened and collectives' diving '; on the other hand, the small brands contrarian and gain market share.
In the transition period, the market competition of harvesters presents new characteristics: First, intensified market competition and further decentralization.With the rise of livestock husbandry machines and economic harvesters, some small-scale enterprises that have experienced rapid transformation and newly-incorporated enterprises Speed up the snatch of market share in the footsteps of the three major grain crops as the center of the traditional strong brand in the combined harvester market share continued to decline, directly led to further dispersion of market concentration Second, the brand has weakened competitive advantage Consumption The declining purchasing power of the harvester market competition to form the biggest impact than the price sensitivity, some small brands is the use of price advantage, to seize market share, market competition more complex and diverse.Third, the product 'performance stability + low price + Quality service 'has become the three profit-making arrow in the harvester market competition over the past year, temporarily overwhelming the advantages of high-end, high-priced, high-quality and advanced functions, leading to collective' diving 'in the mainstream brand sales.
According to market research, as of the end of November 2017, the total sales of various harvesters for the six major brands totaled 111,200 units, representing a decrease of 19.75% from the same period of last year, accounting for 46.39%, down 1.48% from the same period in 2016. From the performance of each brand, Compared with the same period of last year, the performance of '4 under 2' was the same, with Jiangsu Wode, Xingguang Agricultural Machinery increasing by 2.92% and 20.99% respectively, while other brands showed significant declines in varying degrees.
Exports have risen sharply while imports have dropped slightly
In the domestic harvester market collective 'diving', the export market has soared contrarian.Statistics show that as of the end of November 2017, China exported a total of 34,400 harvesters of various kinds to achieve the export volume of 338 million US dollars, respectively year on year An increase of 9.12% and 59.32%.
January ~ November 2017 Export List of Harvester Unit: Million USD
Statistics show that as of the end of November 2017, sugar cane and cotton harvester exported 63 sets and 1345 sets respectively, up 23.53% and 196.91% over the same period of the previous year, respectively, with the export volume of 12,243,600 yuan US $ 98,707,400, surging 298.88% and 250.07% respectively over the same period of last year.
At the end of November 2017, China exported a total of 14,900 combine harvesters and exported 220 million U.S. dollars, up by -5.19% and 26.72% respectively over the same period of last year.
The main battlefield for the export of combine harvesters in our country is concentrated in Asia, accounting for more than 90% of all exports. Combine harvesters exported to various countries in the first 11 months of 2017 are mainly concentrated in the top 11 countries with a total export volume of 13845 units, 199,900,600 U.S. dollars, up -7.06% and 25.92% respectively compared with the same period of last year. The concentration of export areas has declined. As of the end of November 2017, the export volume and export volume accounted for 92.76% and 91.01% respectively, Down 1.87 percentage points and 0.58 percentage points.
Analyzed by the exporting countries, Indonesia ranked the first exporter with a total export volume of 5,838 sets and an export volume of 70,639,700 U.S. dollars, up -29.25% and 37.4% respectively over the same period of previous year, accounting for 39.1% and 32.16% respectively, representing a year-on-year increase An increase of -13.29 and 2.5 percentage points, the trend of large-scale export is very prominent. Large export volume and exports, while the three-digit increase in both Iran and the Philippines, exports reached 243.73% year on year and 162.25% respectively, exports Representing an increase of 243.45% and 211.12% over the same period of the previous year respectively, representing a more substantial increase over the same period of 2016.
The increase in export volume has been mainly due to two important reasons. First, in 2017, with the recovery of the world economy, especially in the Asian economy, the purchasing power of foreign countries has risen and has become a strong support for the export market of harvesters ; Second, after years of development, China's harvester products have greatly improved the quality of their products. In addition, the international competitiveness has been greatly enhanced by the price advantage, which has solidified the product base of exports.
The import volume of harvesters both decreased, with customs statistics showing that as of the end of November 2017, a total of 1119 harvesters were imported, bringing the import volume to 136 million U.S. dollars, down 28.64% and 1.47% respectively over the same period of last year.
January ~ November 2017 Harvest Machine Import Amount List Unit: million US dollars
In terms of the quantity imported, the import categories are mainly concentrated in two broad categories of other harvesters and combine harvesters. As of the end of November 2017, 560 and 377 units were imported respectively, representing a year-on-year decrease of 50.39% and 11.53% respectively. The share of combine harvesters dropped 14.78 percentage points, the proportion of other harvesters rose 9.67 percentage points.
It is noteworthy that the export volume and export volume of rhizomes or tubers and cotton harvesters all showed different degrees of increase. Customs statistics show that as of the end of November 2017, imports were 131 and 47 respectively, up 2.34% and 291.67% of the total imports; the realized imports were respectively USD16,193,800 and USD21,942,200, up 29.56% and 280.43% respectively over the same period of last year.
Import decline mainly due to China's harvesting machine products, especially in the low-end products are more mature, the world's major brands are basically settled in China, from the low-end and high-end two aspects, basically able to meet the domestic market demand. Or will become the norm in the future.
The market bottomed out, consolidating the harvester market or showing a recovery growth
Market Trend of Harvesting Machinery Sales and Market Forecasts for 2017-2016
Undoubtedly, China's harvester market is in the turning point of rapid transformation and upgrading, the large-scale into the next few years, the basic trend of development, followed by demand reduction.Real harvester market is facing the biggest reality: First, the mainstream market Saturated, rigid demand is insufficient; Second, the market holds a huge amount of updates to become the main driving force of the market.
Thus, two results are bound to result: first, the structure is gradually optimized; secondly, the stock is decreasing year by year.
Judging from this, in 2018, harvesting machine market will continue to decline in demand around 500,000 units, down 10% down.
The combined harvester market bottomed out in 2017 after diving in 2017 or will be the main theme of the market in 2018. Analyzing the environment faced by the combine harvester in 2018 is still positive.
First, the three major grain crop harvester market collective 'diving', some markets have been more than 3 consecutive years of significant landslide, such as corn harvester market, it is not difficult to see that the market has bottomed out, rebound or in 2018 occur;
Second, after two years of adjustment in the planting institutions, the planting area was relatively stable, and the grain prices also showed some signs of recovery after the decline.
Third, the quota of agricultural machinery remained stable at 18.6 billion yuan, and the policy dividend will still play a larger supporting role in the market.
Fourth, the rapid transfer of land to agricultural growers, family farms and the rapid rise of specialized agricultural machinery will push the pace of small and medium-sized agricultural machinery renewal. The large agricultural machinery market will exert its force once again.
Fifthly, markets such as corn harvesters, silage machines and cash crop harvesters may show various degrees of growth, which will drive the entire market.
At the same time, we must also understand that the window period of the harvester market will still affect the agricultural machinery market in 2018, and the continued downturn in traditional hot markets will become the norm. The decline in rigid demand and purchasing power will once again increase the downward pressure on the market. These negative factors determine the 2018 harvester market will not show substantial growth.
Based on this, we judge that the harvesting machine market in 2018 may show a small and recovering growth. The annual demand is expected to hover around 270,000 units, an increase of 12%.