In recent years, with the continuous and rapid development of the new energy automotive industry, the battery industry has also been on the rise. In 2017, the number of new energy vehicles maintained a relatively high growth rate with sales of 777,000 units, exceeding the expectation of 700,000 units, an increase of 53.3% %. In the background of such a huge sales data, in addition to policy dividends, power battery technology boost plus points.
At the same time, the structural overcapacity and sharp drop in the number of Li-ion enterprises have become lingering 'worries' in the industry.Data show that the domestic battery capacity will reach around 200 GWh by the end of 2017, but the actual demand in 2018 is only 50 GWh, 70 % -75% of capacity will be unable to digest, insiders predict that the size of the excess capacity of power batteries will peak in 2018; the same time, the data show that in 2016 there are a total of 116 companies in the market shipments, but from In 2017, among the top 10 promotion catalogs, only 85 enterprises and 31 enterprises were "disappeared". Experts predict that in 2018, the power battery enterprises will be further reduced from less than 100 to less than 50 in 2018.
From more than 400 in 2015 to less than a quarter now, it may indicate that the large-scale knock-out of the lithium battery industry has intensified.
Out or being merged, has become the fate of most power battery companies have to face.
So, what will all this change for the industry? What is behind the mystery?
New Energy Vehicle Network try to analyze the above proposition, for the industry judge.
The survival of the fittest staged ahead of the 'knockout'
In recent years, along with the sustained and rapid development of the new energy automotive industry, the power battery industry has also been on the rise. With huge market space and profit prospects, various types of capital have been brought to the forefront. In 2015, the number of power battery practitioners reached more than 400.
In the meantime, the problem of structural excess in low-end production has become increasingly prominent.
Statistics show that in the first half of 2017 alone, there were 52 investment projects in China's power battery industry with a total investment amounting to 91.996 billion yuan, of which 30 were power lithium battery projects with a total investment of 67.627 billion yuan, and positive and negative materials There are 16 projects with a total investment of 18.319 billion yuan, 6 electrolytes and membranes with a total investment of 6.05 billion yuan. In this context, Forbes News recently said that it is estimated that by 2020, Power battery market share will be more than 70%, then China will dominate the world's power battery industry.
Since 2017, driven by the pressure of upstream raw material prices and the pressure on downstream automakers, power battery makers have experienced 'Ice Age' and the first three quarters of 2017 released by power battery listed companies shows this.
Fluoride (SZ.002407) Soaring Share Price from Battery Materials to Power Batteries and New Energy Vehicles in FY2017 According to the earnings report released on October 23, 2017, the total revenue of the first three quarters of 2017 was RMB2.48 billion, up An increase of 17.4%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies 208 million yuan, down 45.02%.
On October 26, 2017, Guoxuan Tech Co., Ltd. released a report that from January to September 2017, its operating income was 3.755 billion yuan, an increase of 9.7% over the same period of last year. Net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 640 million yuan, down 13.27% over the same period of last year.
On 30 October 2017, China National Li-ion parent company Chengdu Int'l (002190) released its 2017 third quarterly report. The company achieved a revenue of RMB1,001 million from January to September 2017, representing a decrease of 21.19% as compared to the same period of last year. Net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company 60.84 million yuan, down 99.32%.
Not only that, the data show that 'the domestic production of battery power 200GWh by the end of 2017, the actual demand is expected to be only 50GWh in 2018, which means that 70% -75% of production capacity will not be digested.An analysis pointed out that even if China's new energy vehicles in 2020 production reached 200 million, China's power lithium battery demand is only 170Gwh.
Under the multiple pressures of subsidy adjustment, price hikes of upstream raw materials and price hikes of downstream auto companies, the number of power battery manufacturers drastically dropped. In 2016, a total of 116 enterprises had shipments in the market, but from 2017 In the first 10 installment catalogs, only 85 enterprises and 31 enterprises have disappeared. Experts predict that in 2018, the number of power battery enterprises will be further reduced from less than 100 to less than 50 by 2018.
Former Guo Xuan Gaoke, National Science and Technology Achievement Fund New Energy Vehicle Venture Capital Sub-Fund Executive Partner and President Fang Jianhua told the media that this is just the beginning of the adjustment, the next knockout speed will be faster.
On February 13, 2018, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology and the NDRC released the Notice on Adjusting and Improving the Policy of Financial Subsidy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles. In addition to driving range, the energy density and energy consumption of batteries were also stratified Subsidy.Industry estimates, the upper and lower limits of the new subsidy policy is life, battery energy density, energy consumption of the three dimensions of the product, that is, the upper limit of the theoretical value of 5 × 1.2 × 1.1 = 66000 yuan, the lower limit of the theoretical value of 1 × 0.6 × 0.5 = 3000 yuan.
Can be seen, after experiencing 'mixed fishing' stage, the power battery business really 'winning' is up.
Strong Hengqiang leading enterprise market momentum is healthy
In the ebb and flow of sand, the survival of the fittest in the contest, along with the rapid disappearance of most of the weak enterprises, leading enterprises market momentum is healthy.
(Source: High-tech Research Institute)
The data show that the top ten companies with total installed capacity of power battery in 2017 are Ningde Times, BYD, Watma, Guoxuan Tech, BAK Battery, Lishen, Funeng Technology, Li Wei Lithium Battery, Chi Hang New Energy in 2017 total installed capacity of 36.24Gwh battery, the Ningde era with 10.4Gwh installed capacity successfully won the domestic power battery market share of 1/3; BYD ranked second, the total installed capacity of battery For 5.43Gwh, accounting for 15% of the domestic power battery market share.Statistics show that in 2017 China's total installed capacity of new energy passenger car battery installed capacity of about 13.71GWh, an increase of 50% .Among them, the total installed capacity of the top 20 power battery companies Accounting for 96% of the whole, of which 4.112GWh in Ningde and 2.904GWh in BYD. The total installed capacity of these two enterprises accounted for more than 50% of the total, while the remaining 18 were all less than 1GWh. In 2017, China's new Total installed capacity of energy bus batteries was 14.31GWh, down 10% YoY, of which, the top 20 installed power companies totaled 14.08GWh, accounting for 98% of the total, of which 5.518GWh in Ningde and 2.542GWh in BYD special Ma 1.382GWh, the total installed capacity of the three companies accounted for more than 50% of the overall, the remaining 17 were not more than 1GWh.
Thus, as the first camp Ningde era and BYD's market share and total installed capacity as a whole accounted for nearly 50% of the total, the top 20 power battery enterprises installed capacity accounted for more than 96% of the total power, the new pattern of the industry settled, the industry concentration Increased degree unprecedented.
In the power battery industry, BYD has always insisted on the layout of the entire industrial chain, from the upstream lithium resources to the development of major raw materials, and then batteries, modules, BMS, including electronic systems, recycling, etc. one hundred percent coverage. BYD disclosed in November 2017 data Yes BYD battery production capacity of 16Gwh by the end of 2017, respectively, 6Gwh ternary battery capacity and 10Gwh lithium iron phosphate battery capacity is expected to add 10Gwh ternary battery capacity by 2018, total production capacity rose to 26Gwh. According to BYD Planning, by 2020 planned production capacity reached 39Gwh.
As the battery capacity continues to rise, BYD will also see this business as a new profit growth point.In accordance with the state's "13th Five-Year" development plan, by 2020 the new energy vehicles to achieve that year production and marketing more than 2000000 vehicles, the cumulative production and marketing more than 500 million, the future market for the rapid growth in demand for battery power has been difficult to change the trend.In the face of such market opportunities, starting with the battery business, and by virtue of independent research and development to become 'battery king' Wang Chuanfu, apparently the battery block The potential to play to the extreme.
Since May 2017, BYD's battery business has been split and operated independently. By this way, BYD has broken the original vertically integrated production and operation mode and supplied power battery modules with core technologies to the entire new energy vehicle market, which means Recently BYD shares (01211.HK) investor relations activity record shows that with the company gradually opening up the supply chain system, the future of the company will sell batteries abroad, has now been And many OEMs talk about, as soon as 2018 there will be some external battery sales.It is reported that in the next few years, BYD will gradually increase battery sales overseas.
If BYD to power battery-based, opened in the new energy industry chain depth layout, toward the trillion yuan revenue scale of the new journey, then focus on the field of lithium electricity deep plowing Ningde era, in the quality and cost reduction and Variety of market strategy performance eye-catching.
Undoubtedly, the new energy passenger car is the growth leader, to seize the passenger car customers to achieve great development.Ningde Times prospectus shows that its major customers from passenger cars to passenger cars.In the first half of 2017, its largest customer Has changed from Yutong to Geely Holding, Xiamen Golden Dragon, the fifth largest customer, was replaced by Dongfeng Motor Co., Ltd. The timely capture of the passenger car market made the average price of the power battery system in Ningde era drop from 2.06 yuan in 2016 to 2017 In the first half of the year 1.52 yuan, the gross profit margin remained at 37.1% .At the same time, and SAIC and Dongfeng Motor and other vehicle manufacturers to build factories, also become the Ningde era of lithium battery companies such as the bigger and stronger new road through.
Faced with a centralized power battery market, Watermar Battery has won a total of over $ 10.3 billion in orders since 2017 with the collaboration of its members on the Watermark Innovation Alliance platform.
In summary, the new energy car network 'xnyauto' analysis that with the intensification of the trade-offs, the battery industry has emerged 'Oligopolistic' clues, and the stronger the stronger Matthew effect will become increasingly evident Needless to say, in the next three to five years, China's lithium industry will deeply reshuffle, more than 90% of lithium battery companies will be mergers, reorganizations or bankruptcy, the number of truly able to enter the vehicle supply system will not exceed 20 , And production capacity will be highly concentrated in the hands of the top few.
Undoubtedly, experiencing pain, confusion, frustration of the lithium industry is deducing the wonderful and helpless, also facing the hope and light.
