In the recent years, PV companies are conducting production competitions, but in recent years, there has been an endless stream of warnings on overcapacity of photovoltaic power plants. However, Enterprises in the context of overcapacity, enterprises are still accelerating capacity expansion in this context, the PV industry opportunities and challenges of the future development of both.
Frequency expansion capacity
Photovoltaic market continued boom, so that the sun began to expand aggressively.After the end of last year announced plans to expand the production of 8 billion yuan, a new round of 2 billion yuan agreement has been signed.Organ Nissin recently announced that the company as the Party B and Yiwu Information Photoelectric High-tech Industry Park Management Committee signed on February 21 "5GW solar module production base project investment framework agreement", the project plans a total investment of 2 billion yuan, about 350 acres of land, the project is divided into two phases, the construction period of two years This is the second large-scale expansion project of Dongsheng Risheng in 3 months after the construction of 5GW photovoltaic cell and 5GW PV module base after Jiangsu Jintan invested 8 billion yuan.
In December 2017, the company announced an agreement with the People's Government of Jintan District, Changzhou, Jiangsu Province, to invest a total of 8.0 billion yuan to build a 5GW photovoltaic cell and 5GW PV module manufacturing base in Jintan, Jiangsu Province, The base has been quickly put on the construction schedule, 5GW double efficient PERC polycrystalline photovoltaic cells and components manufacturing plant is being prepared, is expected to soon Changzhou Jintan straight Town Industrial Park officially opened.If the framework agreement goes smoothly The implementation will further enhance the Company's production capacity of photovoltaic modules and related products and enhance the core competitiveness of the Company in terms of technology, automation, cost control and international brand image manufacturing of photovoltaic modules and related products, and expand the share of the Company's photovoltaic products in the global market , The company's performance has a certain positive impact.
In 2017, the shipment volume of Oriental Sunrise Component increased significantly, and it is estimated that Oriental Sunrise will be ranked No. 6 in domestic component shipments in 2017. As of 2016, Oriental Sunrise's solar cell production capacity is 1.5GW, module production capacity But 3.1GW. However, only a year to grow several times, the scale has reached tens of billions of dollars into the future rising sun PV module production capacity will rapidly soar to 13.1GW, will become China's front-line component companies in the leader. Zhuang Yinghong, director of Risen's global market, said that this capacity expansion may bring about a new round of industry consolidation, but the integration is mainly based on high and inefficient production capacity or enterprises.
In recent years, the global PV market continued to grow, the national policy continued positive, China's PV market continued rapid growth, higher than the industry expected new domestic installed capacity and cumulative installed capacity continued to occupy the global high ground.Data show that in 2017, China's solar cell Output was 68GW, an increase of 33.3%; component output was 76GW, an increase of 43.3%. Chain production in all parts of the world accounted for more than 50% of the world, continue to maintain the world's first. At the same time, the PV industry chain is constantly improving, the PV market In constant standardization, all major enterprises are seeing opportunities to upgrade their technologies and expand production capacity in order to gain greater market share.
Excess warning
In fact, the expansion of domestic PV companies at the same time, early warning of overcapacity in the industry has already appeared.Data show that in 2009-2011, in the global PV market, especially the European PV market driven by the further rapid expansion of China's photovoltaic capacity, However, due to the market growth rate of more than 70%, the imbalance between supply and demand in industry has not yet highlighted .In 2012, the global PV market growth rate of only 6%, the global polysilicon production capacity of more than 400,000 tons, while the actual output and demand is only 236,000 tons and 230,000 tons, much lower than the production capacity.
Affected by this, 90% of polysilicon enterprises in our country were forced to stop production in 2012. In 2011, 262 PV enterprises in China had dropped to 112 in 2012. Even so, the production capacity of PV modules in China reached 45GW in 2012, Compared with an increase of 700% in the case of a sudden slowdown in the market, the problem of overcapacity concentrated outbreak, product prices fell sharply, serious shortage of capacity utilization, production and operation of enterprises difficulties.
In February this year, Tongwei executives said in an institutional survey, in early February, polysilicon solar cell prices have stabilized and rebounded in early January 1.7 yuan / W dropped to 1.3 yuan / W has risen to 1.35 yuan / W. Monocrystalline Cell prices have not dropped much since January down from around 1.7 yuan / W to about 1.6 yuan / W. 'Many cell makers have begun to make losses, such as Taiwanese manufacturers, which have started to lose cash flow status.'
At the same time, Longji shares warned in a bulletin that with the rapid development of photovoltaic industry, some SMEs that were originally facing the market phase-out started to resume production, resulting in the elimination of excess capacity. On the other hand, the backbone enterprises in the industry, by virtue of their scale The advantages also have to expand production capacity, backward production capacity recovery and new production capacity will exacerbate disorderly competition in the industry, the photovoltaic industry may once again face the risk of changes in the market environment caused by overcapacity Zhuang Yinghong said that the photovoltaic industry overcapacity roots or Technological innovation and industrial policy issues related to the lack of innovation capacity is the core issue of overcapacity.As the progress of photovoltaic technology is more moderate, can not effectively replace the original capacity to eliminate the old capacity.
The industry believes that the rapid growth of photovoltaic capacity in our country, affected by both internal and external parts of the larger.First, the PV industry invested large, more labor, both to create GDP, but also to promote employment.Many local governments have PV as a key industry to develop In addition, there is a typical economies of scale in the PV manufacturing industry, and only by expanding the scale can we effectively reduce costs, meanwhile, the enterprises themselves have the will to squeeze their competitors by further expanding their production capacity and market share, which will also lead to overcapacity.
Dilemma and opportunity
China's production capacity beyond the market demand for more than 25% of the industry defined as overcapacity industries.Data show that the PV industry capacity utilization in 2015 was only about 60% market economy, the modest overcapacity is conducive to play the role of competition mechanism, However, overcapacity in some sectors of our country at this stage has gone beyond the normal market tolerance and will seriously affect the economic growth and smooth operation.
In the first round of production capacity competition that appeared ten years ago, the photovoltaic enterprises backed by local governments scrambled for radical expansion, resulting in serious overcapacity in the industry. After the debts of tens of billions of the debts of Jiangxi LDK and Wuxi Suntech collapsed, The industry continues to rise, the current Granville, GCL, Central, Long Ji and other giants are accelerating the expansion of production capacity, such as Granville last year announced an investment plan exceeding 30 billion yuan in January this year, Longji announced a three-year expansion plan in Based on the 15GW wafer capacity by the end of 2017, the company will strive to achieve a production capacity of 28GW at the end of 2018 and 45GW by the end of 2020.
For the photovoltaic industry under warning of overcapacity, Zhuang Yinghong said that currently the predicament faced by the photovoltaic industry is mainly the double anti-policy of overseas photovoltaic markets such as the United States and India, which makes these overseas photovoltaic enterprises in China However, the dilemma is also an opportunity for overseas emerging markets and cities along the Belt and Road to gradually enter the domestic PV companies' sight and a new development has been made in the strategy of "going global." In addition, Industry overcapacity, product price decline is now a major problem, but also because of this situation, companies began to expand new technology capacity, research and development of cost-effective products, and strive to PV parity as soon as possible online.
In addition, the industry said that as the current PV market is still in its early stages of development, the future for a considerable period of time will continue to grow, so the current overcapacity does not mean that the future will be surplus.At the same time, China's PV industry in the global market has Strong competitive advantage, accounting for more than 70% of the global market, so China's photovoltaic capacity corresponds to the global market, from the annual global installed capacity of the PV capacity and our comparison, the PV overcapacity problem is not obvious.
