New production line capacity to become the key to overcapacity
With the commissioning of new production lines for television LCD panels and the upgrading or renovation of existing production lines, the production capacity of TV LCD panels has been continuously increased and the market supply capacity has been gradually enhanced. However, the television market has been steadily declining with slight declines in sales volume , LCD TV overcapacity will appear overcapacity.Polylady Peng, chairman of AU Optronics believes that the panel production capacity in mainland China has surpassed Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, the excess supply of LCD TVs will become the "new normal."
In particular, the production of a 10.5-generation line and two 8.6-generation lines in 2018 will directly bring about an increase in the production capacity of TV LCD panels, which may become the key to affecting the original supply-demand relationship.
TV LCD panel production capacity increased year by year is very obvious, indicating that the industry seems to have reached a consensus.China Optics and Optoelectronics Industry Association LCD Branch Deputy Secretary-General Hu Chunming pointed out that the transformation or upgrading of the old production line will increase about 4% of capacity, new production capacity line May increase about 3%, 2018 TV LCD panel may increase production capacity of 7% .This and AU Optronics General Manager Cai Guo new forecast data coincide, Cai believes that 2018 TV LCD panel production capacity will increase 6 ~ 8%.
However, the demand for TV LCD panel was mixed with disagreement among panel makers, which were optimistic. According to Cai Guo-xin, large-size TV shipments will increase significantly with the start of a large number of international sports events in mid-2018. Plus more and more applications for large-size panels for consumer and commercial markets will result in a 6 to 8% increase in panel demand in the global market, while display industry watchers are very conservative and Li Yaqin, deputy general manager of Qunzhi Consulting, The TV market is unlikely to experience substantial growth, up 2.5% in 2018, if the market is not likely to decline as it did in 2017. Hu Chunming also said that if demand for LCD TVs is more optimistic, there may be a 3 to 5% increase.
According to the panel makers, TV LCD panels will achieve a supply-demand balance by 2018. According to industry observers, oversupply may occur in 2018. The increase in production capacity of new production lines will become the key to over-supply, as China Optics Optoelectronics Industry Association LCD Branch provided data, if there is no new production capacity of the production line, in 2018 new capacity growth of about 4%, while market demand can increase 3 ~ 5%, the basic TV LCD panels to achieve supply and demand balance.
Production capacity of new lines like overcapacity valve, the size of the valve to determine the actual extent of excess capacity.IHS large panel chief analyst Wu Rongbing pointed out that in theory, people will be overcapacity in 2018. However, the new production line Yield will be a variable, if the yield is high, the phenomenon of panel oversupply will be more serious. If the yield increase period is longer and the new capacity is not big, the market pressure will be smaller.
Whether to enter a new round of down cycle remains to be seen
At present, the prices of TV LCD panels are continuing to decline, due to weak demand in the first quarter of 2018. There has been oversupply in the first quarter of 2018. Li Yaqin pointed out that the first quarter of 65-inch and 32-inch LCD TV prices oversupply, the price pressure is relatively large.
If the new production capacity into the market, may lead to deterioration in the supply relationship, the panel prices fell further, it may lead to the TV LCD panel industry into a new round of down cycle.Hu Chun-ming pointed out that the last round of LCD TV downlink cycle Starting from the second half of 2015 and ending in the second half of 2016. Whether the new round of down cycle will be observed from the second half of 2018 will also be observed.
It is noteworthy that at present, 55-inch TV market penetration has been some improvement, the TV manufacturers are turning their focus to the 65-inch TV market.The new line capacity mainly concentrated in the 55-inch size segment market, especially the 65-inch panel market.
Review of the past few years, the 8.5-generation large-scale rise of the line to promote the popularity of 55-inch TV, and now 55-inch TV has become almost standard living room. Li Yaqin said that in 2017 China's 55-inch TV market share has more than 25% Has also accounted for more than 15%.
2018 TV LCD panel will usher in a new starting point, in particular, a number of 10.5 on behalf of the production line will be gradually mass production of 65-inch TV market to promote the popularity stage.Li Yaqin explained that 8.5 generations of lines through the cutting technology can also be cut out 65-inch panel, but the overcutting technology is more difficult and less efficient than cutting a 55-inch panel. As a result, the 8.5-generation line can only boost the 55-inch TV market, while the 65-inch TV market is far from adequate. The 10.5-generation line can economically cut 65-inch panels, high cutting efficiency of 96%, can afford to popularize the 65-inch TV market.
In other words, the new production capacity is not repeat 8.5 generation of 55-inch capacity, along with the size of the structure adjustment or upgrade to meet the downstream TV manufacturers on the 65-inch panel in large demand, the second half of 2018 may also occur Smooth transition, will not enter a new round of down cycle.
In the second half of 2018, LCD TV will not finally enter the new round of down cycle, which is ultimately determined by the operation of the new production line and the relationship between supply and demand.If the new production line runs smoothly, the production capacity will increase excessively and the supply-demand relationship will change May result in the panel price decline, to promote the TV LCD panel into a new round of downward cycle, on the contrary, it will be a smooth transition.