In one of the world's biggest mergers and acquisitions for the semiconductor industry, Qualcomm is more than Qualcomm for two teaser shows, and for the moment it seems that Tripod kicked the ball to the other side.
The first leg, raised the offer to acquire NXP mergers and acquisitions to 44 billion US dollars.
This is a multi-bird operation that can soothe the latter investors, show confidence in strategic transformation and independent development, to a certain extent, stabilize the morale, and a stable Qualcomm can unite the board consensus and enhance Broadcom's powerful acquisition and the difficulty Uncertainty.
The second leg, for the first time Botong proposed 160 billion US dollars offer deterrent intention.
This is 60% more than the initial rumored 100 billion U.S. dollars, 30 billion U.S. dollars more than the official quote from Broadcom, which is almost equal to three-quarters of Qualcomm's latest quote from NXP. Help out for the purchase of more than half of NXP.
The third leg, Qualcomm may have resorted to the banner of industrial nationalism, indirectly through public opinion influence the United States Foreign Investment Commission (CFIUS) and other official agencies, the false hands pressure the latter.
The latter said Broadcom is a Singapore-based company that will affect U.S. national security by acquiring Qualcomm.
Reuters news, CFIUS met last month to discuss the possibility of the merger, and said that even a Senate urged the U.S. Treasury Secretary to initiate the review.
Looked, this three-ball, Broadcom are not very good to deal with.
However, the current Qualcomm, impossible to return to the independent status of the case before the disclosure, in order to enhance the short-term stability of NXP acquisition offer, it is difficult to cross the eagerness of the capital markets and Broadcom party.
And, be aware, even if the NXP side agrees with this new condition, the acquisition of antitrust reviews that seek immediate access to key global markets is equally fraught with uncertainty.
This foot, looks like Qualcomm actively kicked, in fact, more like NXP investors are embarrassed and passive use.Next, it might even continue to prick, put forward new conditions for Qualcomm to continue vomiting blood.
Believe it or not, take a look at the latest price movements of NXP to understand.After the new offer of Qualcomm came out, it immediately flew a share price .This completely took advantage of the robbery situation.It is estimated that the next high-pass have to spit blood. Said that this situation need not be used ah.
The second goal, in essence, is a money problem. Broadcom chairman Hock Tan face the 160 billion US dollars offer, although that 'ridiculous', but over the past few months, Broadcom does not seem to fully expose their bottom line. , It is clear that it is still the attitude of the acquisition.
In the past two months, Broadcom shares have experienced a wave of shocks, in addition to the business level, presumably also with the evolution of the acquisition.According to Hock Tan's personality, the semiconductor industry's M & A, capital operation strongman, there can be too much backroom .
For him and Broadcom, if it is a purely money to solve the problem, it is basically not the biggest threshold.After all, such a merger case, the price of overpaid, follow-up financial operations, the capital market dividend will certainly be back. , There are a lot of business and asset integration, stripping space.At the time, the integration process, a chicken eat more oil and water may ultimately.
Of course, we do not want to see such a situation, which will inevitably cause Qualcomm's turmoil and will lead to fluctuations in the level of industry cooperation, but how investors may take care of too many industry interests by then Like to fluctuate
Qualcomm can not afford to drag .Three-footer behind, it has its business, financial and capital markets and other aspects of the risk.
You know, in the past few quarters earnings report, Qualcomm revenue and profit two major indicators are not optimistic.
Apple lawsuits continue to affect the cost of the patent, the news even said that Huawei has begun to protest the other side.Considering the patent fee in Qualcomm's profit share, which means that, even in the next few quarters, want to return to past profitability , Basically impossible.
Over the past few quarters, despite the global mobile phone shipments did not appear the expected decline, but Qualcomm solutions rely more on the mid-market, gross profit, revenue also continue to be affected.
It is almost impossible to expect Apple to compromise, and it is not optimistic.
In theory, if there is no external factors, especially the case of NXP acquisition stimulus, Qualcomm's share price has long been probably a tragedy.
NXP offers two kinds of hope: medium and long term, it can promote the strategic transformation of Qualcomm and business model change; in the short term, it can grow the revenue scale.
For the capital markets, the decline in profits, although embarrassing, if the successful acquisition brings revenue gains, should also be able to maintain the stock price.
As of now, we really can see that Qualcomm shares continue to be sideways, it seems two transactions, there is no clear message, it should not be too optimistic.
However, the NXP side has not yet got a clear message.As mentioned above, even if the NXP party agreed to the new conditions, the acquisition of the case immediately won the antitrust review of key regional markets, quite exciting.This case stimulus, in the first half of 2018, Qualcomm are hard to count on.
Of course, it also has a big expectation.Especially in the global 5G market.Many recent industry news, the significant effect of the concept of the capital market, local 5G stocks gains gratifying.However, from the substantive large-scale commercial, at least two to three years, Even longer.Moreover, the initial equipment market faster start-up, terminal business climbing earlier, I mean, the next two years, Qualcomm's main business recovery, the chance is really a little slim.
A Qualcomm full of uncertainties can hardly really arouse strong identity, its long-term investment value will be ignored and even affect industrial cooperation.
In short, as time goes by, Qualcomm's business, financial and market value management pressure will increase at the moment it, whether it is the acquisition of NXP, or a huge deal with Broadcom, it has been difficult to drag on.
Of course, dragged down, Broadcom will pay a higher price.But the usual capitalist it, but may be further stimulated by the deadlocked obsession. Otherwise, once the negotiations ended completely, Broadcom may encounter capital The impact of the market over the past period, the stock price of this drama also benefit a lot.
For both parties, this is something of a "prisoner's dilemma." We think there is a good chance of a deal coming out without a new external force.
Of course, Qualcomm's third goal, that is, the U.S. direct pressure exerting pressure on Broadcom, may be more effective in the short term.
However, this footballer, we think, in the end is unlikely to be an obstacle.
New Broadcom headquarters nominally in Singapore, and Hock Tan has a Chinese face, but the original background of this company, whether it is Anwar or the old Broadcom, essentially the capital of the United States highly controlled business .Anwar High source born in the United States Hewlett-Packard, and later headquartered in Singapore, but also a joint headquarters in California.Old Broadcom Needless to say, was originally a US-funded enterprises, the headquarters was originally in the United States.
After all, the shareholders behind the new Broadcom, mostly institutional investors in the United States, have fairly decentralized shares, saying that it is a U.S.-controlled company and that, as such, Not unreasonable.
Therefore, even if CFIUS demands a censorship, it may not end up in the end, and Broadcom has already said it will move its headquarters to the United States after the acquisition of Qualcomm.
This position, enough to meet Trump's return to the key manufacturing demands of the United States before taking into account the previous Hock Tan and Trump himself has been interactive, this huge merger, it is very likely to become Trump government a bigger face engineering.
Less than a week before the shareholders' meeting on March 6, the above three-ball kicked off even though it could delay the vote of the general meeting and delay the progress of the case. However, the result is still not very optimistic.
However, both parties are entitled to a fiery acquisition, the future of the industry may not be so pessimistic.Industry pattern of the industry for too long, the acquisition may of course bring shocks, the total or change More optimistic about it.
Qualcomm, Broadcom, and NXP investors, this may be a rich capital feast of the three companies compared to the month K, Qualcomm shares more turmoil should be said that it truly reflects the cycle Qualcomm Passive side.We believe it must also look forward to some change, but that completely rely on internal forces, the cycle will be very long, painful, and easy to compromise.Whether Broadcom capital operation how utilitarian, it should promote the pace of change into Qualcomm It