Under the combined effect of market and policy, food prices in the whole region rebounded in 2017, wheat and soybean purchase prices rose steadily and corn purchase prices were lower than the previous year. Comprehensive production and demand, policies, costs and impact of international markets It is estimated that the grain price will remain stable and weak in 2018, and the overall grain price will be lower than in 2017.
China's grain price will be reduced in 2018
Recently, the state released the minimum purchase price of rice in 2018, early indica rice, late indica rice and japonica rice produced in 2018, with a decrease of 0.1-0.2 yuan per catty, the biggest downward adjustment in three years.
Since the implementation of the policy, the minimum purchase price of food has mobilized peasants' enthusiasm for planting grain and increased grain production over the years, but the lowest bidding price in the past few years is mainly dominated by marketplaces, which are often above the market price, and can not truly reflect the supply and demand relations at home and abroad Inverted food prices, stocks, imports more and more, downstream processing enterprises struggling .All in an industrial chain, enterprises did not account, farmers income is difficult, so rely on policies doomed to the price is not sustainable.
Looked at the market, now people not only want to eat enough, but also eat well, eat assured, demand escalation, effective supply can not keep up, the main contradiction of food has changed from the total shortage of structural contradictions, the stage of oversupply and supply coexist While the grain prices and subsidies are close to the ceiling, and the resources and environment are encountering the "magic spell" again. The structural reform on the grain supply side urgently needs immediate help.
2016-2021 Market Demand and Investment Advisory Report of China's Foodstuff Industry Shows that in this context, the minimum purchase price is lowered and the 'market pricing and price compensation and separation' is adopted. In order to reduce the amount of stock and increase it, Food prices gradually return to the market.At the same time, the price of food from 'care market price' to change the 'reserve price', to farmers eat 'reassurance' to ensure that grain is not a loss, but the 'reserve price' is not the market price, now some places of high quality The price of rice is still strong, which sends out a signal that in the future we can not blindly pursue production, adjust the structure and adjust varieties to make more profits.
Some people worry that the price adjustment will not result in a 'low price of grain to hurt peasants'? From the corn supply side reform practice in two years, we should not have to worry about .2016 corn to cancel the temporary storage policy, the price rise from only rose to follow the market, Down, less tune up, addition and subtraction on the field, in exchange for a good hand, reduced 14.77 million mu of corn, soybeans, vegetables and other an increase of 1700 mu, unbalanced ship turned over, the national corn stocks fell 28%. Corn prices began to return to rationality, rose from 0.6 yuan per catty to more than 0.8 yuan, processing enterprises live, farmers income steady, the industry out of the 'dead end', full of new vitality.
In view of this, the rice price adjustment is the top priority for the structural reform of the grain supply side, which is not only an all-round adjustment of the productive forces but also a profound change in the relations of production. It is necessary to consider the balance of quantities and the improvement of the quality Sustainable and healthy development. So, how to adjust the structure?
Adhere to the direction of marketization.Adjust the structure, eliminate ineffective supply, increase effective supply, and expand high-end supply; adjust the way to promote green production, both old history, but also for future generations to survive and develop space .To further improve the accuracy of the policy , Guided by better prices and better prices of grain, and guided peasants to stare at the market. Following the demand, the output was excellent and sold well, making the grain-making industry a profitable industry.
Food security is a strategic issue, and the problem of eating more than 1.3 billion people has always been the priority. Whenever it is necessary to ensure that 'the basic self-sufficiency of grain and the absolute safety of food rations' Firmly put their jobs in their own hands.New times to protect food production capacity, it is necessary to speed up the transformation to upgrade the quality of food production and construction of key agricultural production areas, the implementation of 'Tibet grain in the' technology of grain storage technology ' To build a higher quality, more efficient and more sustainable food security system.
To protect the peasants' income is the goal.The structural reform on the grain supply side has been unsuccessful, depending on whether the supply system is optimized or not, and whether the peasants should benefit from the reform.We must grasp the strength and pace of reform and gradually realize market pricing, which not only reflects the market supply and demand But also to prevent the price of grain from fluctuating by a large margin. In particular, we must prevent food prices from falling too fast and stabilize the basic income of peasants' incomes so as to ensure that no large-scale sale of grain will be difficult and prevent the loss of grain-growing peasants.
Or subsidies to stimulate Chen grain digestion
In 2018, the news of the deep-processing subsidy has lapsed yet. The market's enthusiasm for the subsidy policy for deep-processing enterprises gradually cooled down. The reduction of corn acreage in the country led to a drop in the total output of maize and a rise in corn prices in the first half of this year, boosting the enthusiasm of grassroots farmers in selling grain and selling grain As the schedule of selling grain is very rare in 2018, the expectation of the new-season corn processing subsidy for the deep processing this year will be weakened compared with that of the same period last year. Market rumors of the previous period suggest that the subsidy for deep processing of corn should be preplanned However, the trigger condition is that corn must fall to a certain extent and the subsidy standard should be halved compared with that in 2017. Heilongjiang subsidy will be 150 yuan / ton and Jilin subsidy will be 100 yuan / ton, while the corn price in 2018 will continue to be subsidized this year Reasonable voice gradually increased, and the same period on the deep-processing enterprises Chen grain consumption subsidies are getting louder and louder, as we all know, deep processing is the best channel to digest Chen grain subsidies to stimulate deep processing enterprises enthusiasm for the purchase of Chen grain is also an acceleration of digestion policy Effective method of food stocks. The subsidy period for further processing in 2017 is from November to April next year The purchase of new grain, and the amount of corn processed at the end of June to give subsidies, basically the acquisition period of 6 months, 8 months of processing volume, so if the grain subsidy policy is implemented, the expected purchase of grain subsidies from April Beginning until the end of September before the new grain market.
The maize market has an extremely arduous task of going to stock in 2018. In 2014, there were over 52 million tons of food sources. In 2015, 125 million tons of grain was the most untouched. The task of going to stocks next year will be even heavier. In 2018, Rising crop yields will inevitably lead to a rebound in the planted area of the new season maize in 2018. The total maize output in the next season is likely to increase. Probably the failure to adjust the planted area will be avoided by accelerating the consumption of corn in the temporary storage and suppressing the price increase. The task of going to inventory is an inevitable choice to increase the auction time, reduce the auction price, stimulate the enthusiasm for auction, and speed up the digestion of food stocks. Therefore, Probationary Corn Auction in 2018 probably starts ahead of schedule.
