Since the fourth quarter of last year, due to the balance of supply and demand, plastic futures have been showing the trend of interval oscillation, the oscillation range of 9200-10200 yuan / ton.Technically, plastic futures again under the 9200 yuan / ton blocked, began to test the rebound 9850 yuan / Tense pressure on first-tier transaction-intensive areas.
The trend of the market is difficult to find
PE companies that have stopped in January have already re-started their operations. At present, the profits of PE production remain at the level of 2000-3000 yuan / ton, and the enthusiasm for production is guaranteed. Therefore, the enterprises in the latter part of the first quarter do not have excessive maintenance plans and the PE production enterprises will be in the second Quarterly normal centralized maintenance.From the data released before the Spring Festival, PE manufacturers start operating load reached 97%, although compared with the previous full load even overload production declined slightly, but still at a high level.
At present, the domestic plastic manufacturing enterprises still maintain a high starting load during the Spring Festival, the supply of the short-term market is relatively abundant, but the import side is subject to examination and approval restrictions on waste plastics, the return of material imports will decline, coupled with less import during the Spring Festival, The decline in external supply partially offset the decline in domestic imports.
Demand, the PE downstream enterprises during the Spring Festival large-scale shutdown, PE demand is at the low of the year after the Spring Festival mulching into the consumer season, the downstream membrane plant will focus on replenishment, demand is expected to pick up.But this year's situation, the market will and Not strong, the peak season is not conducive to the role of plastic support limited.Overall, the plastic supply and demand showed a steady overall weakness, which determines the plastic is difficult to break the current range oscillation trend.
Very willing to buy a strong business
PE stocks are currently low .Before the Spring Festival, PE North China, South China, Central China, East China four petrochemical PE stocks were only 4.86 million tons, down nearly mid-December last year, nearly 20,000 tons.In addition to the low petrochemical stocks, At present, the social stock of PE is also in the low state, and before the Spring Festival, the stock of PE in East China was 19,400 tons, which is at the normal level, but the social stock in South China is only 14,680 tons.
At present, the differences in the PE market mainly come from inventories .On the one hand, during the Spring Festival, petrochemical enterprises are producing at full capacity, while the load of downstream enterprises starts to drop sharply. Although there is no relevant data to support this, the petrochemical enterprises' inventories are an inevitable trend, Petrochemical companies there is a certain amount of pressure on the go.On the other hand, the current PE social inventory is also low, although this year's consumer season performance in general, but the normal demand for business replenishment will still stimulate market consumption, in this case, downstream replenishment Demand will also stimulate the reluctant sellers and price psychology of petrochemical companies.Therefore, the game between the late petrochemical enterprises and downstream enterprises will become the key to the PE price trend.From the composition of the upstream and downstream of PE, two barrel oil-based Of the PE manufacturers pricing power is stronger, the latter part of the downstream use of low inventory and consumer season replenishment quite high probability, so the plastic is expected to continue the current rally.Overall, the current PE market supply, but the post-holiday demand season Will partially offset the supply replenishment effect on prices.At the same time, the current low social stock or trigger The field concentration snapped and petrochemical enterprises very price short-term impact by shopping season, the price of plastic is expected to rebound, but given the ample supply, rebound height is limited, expected to be difficult to break through 9850 yuan / ton pre-transaction-intensive areas.