In the past few years, China's progress in the field of chips for all to see, but the gap with the international advanced level still can not be ignored.From the technical point of view, the current domestic chip mainstream process technology is 28 nm, and the most advanced technology is 10 nm and 7 nm For example, the main product of the "Yangtze River Storage Group" with a total investment of about 160 billion yuan is the most popular 3D flash memory currently and is expected to have a production scale of 300,000 units per month by 2020, It is estimated that there will be a production capacity of 1 million chips per month by 2030. It must be noted that the iteration of chip technology has been rapidly developed and it is technically possible for us to invest a substantial amount of investment in production until the huge investment in production lines is likely to become backward production capacity.
On the other hand, the tide of global chip industry consolidation is quite unfavorable to China.From the perspective of smart phones, China's Huawei, Xiaomi, OPPO and vivo are all among the top ten in the world at present, but the chip supply chains of other enterprises except Huawei are highly Rely on Qualcomm and other foreign companies.Once the supply chain business accidents (such as mergers and acquisitions, product prices), the first to be hit is the Chinese manufacturers.Of course, China can be made through M & A review some conditions to protect domestic industries from damage, but it is difficult to stop M & A itself.
Need to be sustained chip industry, need to be persistent, need to endure loneliness.Samsung later in the field of chips, rely on the perseverance.Samsung today with the chip earned turned over, but who noticed that Samsung chip business over the past years have long-term loss Samsung chip technology is also bought for the patent, the original 500 million US dollars to buy Sandisk technology patents, most people think Samsung expensive, is a fool behavior, but Samsung has proved its decision is correct.
China's chip industry to achieve beyond the successor, still need some time. 5G era is coming, by 2020 China's chip industry to completely get rid of reliance on foreign countries is not realistic, but funding, policy support, Huawei ZTE ZTE With the joint efforts of enterprises and other enterprises, independent innovation and capital operation take multiple measures simultaneously. Industry, education and research work hand in hand with quantitative change to qualitative change. After 10 to 15 years, it is quite possible that China will rise strongly in the global chip field and completely get rid of external dependence. Truly become a global chip industry powerhouse.
Toshiba chip business triggered a multi-game cause Toshiba due to the acquisition of US Westinghouse Electric Company caused a huge loss of bad debts, as tens of billions of dollars in losses To avoid being delisted by the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the sale of its most profitable flash memory chip business in exchange for Urgent need of cash flow to improve profitability.Flash chip is an essential component of mobile devices such as smart phones and has been in a tight supply situation since 2016. Toshiba is the world's second largest flash memory chip maker with a market share About 17%, second only to South Korea's Samsung Electronics Co. If Toshiba does not go downhill, Toshiba will not be able to reach the point of selling chips, and it is clear that the business is a 'fat' that has attracted many famous big companies to bid on. Including Foxconn, Western Digital, SK hynix, Apple and so on.
Toshiba decided to bring Bain Capital, a consortium led by the United States (including major banking institutions in Japan, SK Hynix, Apple, Dell, etc.) to a total of US $ 27 billion despite Foxconn's bid in Taiwan for a total consideration of technology outflows and industrial safety. Company) as a priority bidder.But the same interested in the western United States data Bucuabu, multi-party blocking Toshiba transactions, and asked Toshiba chip business to sell their own .Two once tense, sue each other.Toshiba made a discount Conditions, the two sides to ease the relationship, Western Digital finally agreed to sell chips to Bain Capital consortium.
At present, the transaction has been basically completed, is waiting for the review of China and other regulatory agencies can be seen from this incident, the technology transaction is not the highest bidder. Foxconn 27 billion US dollars worth of Bain Capital 180 billion US dollars, not Toshiba Love the money, but the Japanese government does not agree.There are technical, industrial safety, etc. In fact, Bain Capital led the consortium, the Japanese institutions funded more than 50%, which means that after the sale of Toshiba chip business, Dominance is still controlled in Japan, which is the fundamental factor in Bain's capital, which also reflects the chip business is not only related to business, but also the country's high-tech industries, political factors related to the chip industry, the money is not powerful.
Broadcom and Qualcomm acquisition and anti-acquisition Guild wars Global No. 5 chip giant Broadcom acquisition of Qualcomm ranked fourth, some surprising amount of this transaction up to 140 billion US dollars, if successful, will become the largest chip industry ever Mergers and acquisitions for Broadcom small takeover offer, Qualcomm some caught off guard.But the bid is still too low, seriously underestimated the value of Qualcomm and the reasons for the uncertainty of the veto rejected the proposal.Next, Broadcom nominated a new member of Qualcomm's board of directors, and further To Qualcomm pressure; Qualcomm rejected Broadcom's nomination. Since then, Broadcom once again raise the offer to $ 82 per share, Qualcomm's board of directors is still to underestimate the value of Qualcomm refused once again. Staged .But now how the outcome is difficult to predict .Butong apparently prepared, will not let go, if necessary, the joint financial capital may be malicious acquisition; Qualcomm did not agree with the acquisition of the attitude is also very strong, but how to repel kill to The barbarian at the door is still unknown.
The success of the acquisition, regardless of its success on the global chip industry and the entire technology industry will have a huge impact if successful, the "two links" will be the second only to Samsung, Intel's world's third-largest chip The company will become the dominant hegemony in the fields of mobile, automotive chips, WiFi and Internet of things, and in the upcoming 5G era, the consortium's status and voice will be further enhanced and the checks and balances on the industrial chain will be further strengthened.
If unsuccessful, this is a big event enough to load history. In line with the trend of chip industry consolidation in recent years, the warning and deterrent effect to the whole machine industry should not be underestimated.
Apple and Apple fallout led to the loss of Qualcomm.In addition to losing about 20 billion dollars in profits each year, the Apple suppliers are no longer pay royalties. Qualcomm patents, exclusive procurement of chips is tied to a business model, which The business model is widely criticized around the world, leading to China, South Korea, Taiwan regulators have issued a high price of Qualcomm tickets.But Qualcomm patent licensing business model has not been denied, Apple questioned precisely the Qualcomm business model, accused Qualcomm dual Charges.This touch Qualcomm's bottom line, it is possible to subvert the basis of Qualcomm long-term survival and development, so Qualcomm at all costs but also compete with Apple.
Qualcomm has accumulated a large number of mobile technology patents in the 3G / 4G / 5G area, while occupying more than 70% of the market share in baseband chips Qualcomm is very clear that Apple is strong, but also around Qualcomm, but also use its products. Qualcomm would dare to challenge Apple.
Apple is currently the world's highest technology company in the market, despite its own chip business, but because of mobile phones, computers and other products shipped too large in the chip business is still dependent on Qualcomm, Samsung and other competitors .This also shows from one side The importance of the chip to the whole machine manufacturer
The global chip industry turmoil Toshiba to sell flash memory, Broadcom acquisition of Qualcomm, in fact, is the rise of the global chip industry in the tide of the two big wave.In recent years, in order to seize the technological high ground in the future, the global chip industry surged in turmoil.According to the International Semiconductor According to a report released by the Industry Association, M & A transactions in the global chip industry exceeded $ 60 billion in 2015 and may be $ 116 billion and $ 93 billion respectively in 2016 and 2017. The association said 2016 appears to be the peak of M & A spree These mergers and acquisitions are mainly in the mature market to increase the scale and competitiveness.
A total of more than 60 mergers and acquisitions were announced in 2016 and 49 mergers and acquisitions ended in the same year, of which three accounted for over 75% of the total M & A transactions in the year, including Avago's acquisition of Broadcom at a cost of $ 37 billion (currently Broadcom is Avago The original name used after the merger); Softbank acquired 32 billion US dollars of semiconductor intellectual property provider ARM; Western Digital for Sandisk acquisition of 19 billion US dollars.
12 transactions in the global semiconductor industry will be completed in 2017, worth more than 93 billion USdollars.Maximum M & A transactions in 2017 are expected to be the transaction between Qualcomm and NXP Semiconductors, valued at 47 billion U.S. dollars, and the largest M & A in Qualcomm's history Transaction; the second-highest-value transaction was $ 14.8 billion between Adolf and Linear Technology alone, accounting for 66% of all global transactions in 2017. However, if Broadcom and Qualcomm Deal, the size of M & A transactions in 2017 will far exceed the Association's forecast.
International Semiconductor Industry Association also predicts that in the next ten years, the semiconductor industry is likely to enter the vertical integration stage from the horizontal integration to the upstream and downstream stages, and the overall strength of manufacturers will be stronger and stronger, the industry concentration will be higher and higher, and oligopoly The pattern may be further strengthened.
In the era of 5G era, the value of the chip is more prominent and accompanied by the integration tide, which is the continuous rise in the chip prices in recent two years. The most typical ones are memory chips and flash chips. Starting from the second quarter of 2016, In one year, the price almost tripled, and the rise in the price of memory chips and flash memory chips pushed up the average smart phone price by 30% in 2017 and the passive increase in desktop prices, which undoubtedly increased the cost of the whole machine manufacturer, Increase the risk of product sales.While the manufacturers complain about the same time, Samsung, Hynix, Western Digital, Toshiba and other chip makers have earned pours .Samsung flash memory chip prices to create a new high profits, surpassing Intel Yue Ranking the world's largest chip maker.
Chip prices, whether the contradiction between supply and demand triggered, or subjective manufacturers push? There is no one to drive up the price of the factors? National Development and Reform Commission officials have recently stated that the chip prices will rise abnormalities in the past few months, continue to have the whole machine Manufacturers to the National Development and Reform Commission to reflect the memory industry.Development and Reform Commission has recently begun to pay attention to the industry dynamics, does not rule out the future investigation of memory chip makers to determine whether there is the possibility of collusive price increases monopoly.
It should be noted that the coming era of 5G is the era of all-things interconnection, and the connection between people has created a big market of 1 trillion and the connections between things and things have been predicted by manufacturers to reach 100 billion people, The connection between the size of a dozen times larger.As the heart of mobile devices, the chip will become more prominent, the scale of the industry will multiply. The emergence of mergers and acquisitions, is the giants in order to seize the future high ground and the action taken. The emergence of the tide, but also highlights its upstream as the industry chain dominance and the right to speak.
As early as a few years ago, the overall size of China's telecommunications network, the Internet and the electronic information manufacturing industry has been at the forefront of the world. However, the contradiction between large and weak industries is prominent. The biggest weakness is the lack of souls. For many years, China's chip imports exceed oil, becoming the first bulk of imports, the total amount spent each year more than 200 billion US dollars, equivalent to more than one trillion yuan RMB According to the National Constructive Strategic Advisory Committee Estimated that in 2015 the Chinese chip market accounted for one-third of the world, but more than 95% of the supply of products are from foreign-funded enterprises.
Although the chip is small but it is a strategic, basic and leading industry is an important support for the development of the digital economy, the core position in the field of information technology is very prominent, it can be said that the field of industry 's status quo .In order to speed up the revitalization of our country Chip Industry In June 2014, the State Council released a new programmatic document, "Outline for Promoting the Development of the National Integrated Circuit Industry", and put forward the strategic goal of realizing the leapfrog development of China's chip industry in a relatively short period of time, followed by the guidance of CDB Finance, China National Tobacco, China Mobile and other 15 companies jointly funded the 'big fund' was established mainly for the chip industry chain design, IC packaging and testing and other key aspects of the project to provide financial support.
At the same time, the total scale of the IC development fund set up by local governments at all levels has exceeded 300 billion yuan. Recently it was reported that the 'big fund' raised the second phase The scale of the funds will exceed 200 billion yuan.Statistics show that in the next 10 years, it is estimated that the total new investment in China's IC field will exceed 100 billion yuan.
After the establishment of the 'Big Fund', a number of leading companies in the domestic chip field have been generously invested, including Ziguang, SMIC, ZTE and Changdian Technologies, etc. As of the end of 2017, the state integrated circuit industry investment funds have invested more than 70 billion yuan, of which about 60% of the funds to invest in semiconductor manufacturing.
Under the dual drive of policies and funds, the pace of development of China's chip industry has obviously accelerated.According to the statistics of China Semiconductor Industry Association, China's IC industry sales reached 433.55 billion yuan in 2016, up 20.1% from the same period of last year, among which, Chip design industry continues to maintain rapid growth with sales of 164.43 billion yuan, an increase of 24.1%.
China's landmark achievements in the chip industry in 2017 include the release of Huawei's SiS® AI chip, which is the world's first 10-nanometer technology; the third-generation China Beidou chip achieves sub-micron positioning accuracy and chip-level security encryption; and a domestic chip Of the world's top ten chip design companies, among the top 50 chip design companies in the world, Chinese companies occupy 11 seats; Huawei is also successfully using a large number of HiSilicon kylin chips in high-end models, and is no longer controlled by others. These achievements demonstrate our country's dominance in the field of chips.
If Huawei ZTE rely on independent innovation to achieve industrial breakthroughs, the business represented by Ziguang will rely on its capital operation. As the 'seed player' in China's IC industry, Ziguang Group won the bid of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund And China Development Bank totaled 30 billion yuan investment. In March 2016, it won another 150 billion yuan of investment and financing support. In the past few years, it helped make the full use of capital leverage in the past few years and frequently attacked assets mergers and acquisitions, triggering a great deal of attention from the global scientific community.
However, we also noticed that the 'not bad money' violet always seems to be 'thunderstorm'. So far, except for the success of the acquisition of Spreadtrum and Rudike (both Chinese companies) , Including the acquisition and merger of chip companies outside the mainland such as Micron, Western Digital and Taiwan Ligong, almost without exception, being blocked by regulators and finally failed. Developed countries are highly cautious about China's capital acquisition in the chip area, thinking Will threaten the security of their high-tech industries and will therefore all adopt a policy of blockade.As General Secretary Xi pointed out, the real core technology is money that can not be bought.
China will eventually achieve in the field of chips beyond the past few years China's progress in the chip area for all to see, but the gap with the international advanced level still can not be ignored.From the technical point of view, the current domestic chip mainstream process technology is 28 nm, while the international The most advanced technology is 10 nanometers or even 7 nanometers, and China still has a big technical gap, for example, the main product of the "Yangtze River Storage Group" with a total investment of about 160 billion yuan is the most popular 3D flash memory currently and is expected to reach 2020 A production capacity of 300,000 per month will be formed and a production capacity of 1 million per month will be formed by 2030. Must see that the chip technology iterative development is rapid, wait until our capacity investment in place, technically may be substantially outdated, then huge Investment in the production line is likely to become backward production capacity.
On the other hand, the tide of global chip industry consolidation is quite unfavorable to China.From the perspective of smart phones, China's Huawei, Xiaomi, OPPO and vivo are all among the top ten in the world at present, but the chip supply chains of other enterprises except Huawei are highly Rely on Qualcomm and other foreign companies.Once the supply chain business accidents (such as mergers and acquisitions, product prices), the first to be hit is the Chinese manufacturers.Of course, China can make some favorable conditions for the development of the domestic industry through M & A review, but it is difficult to stop the mergers and acquisitions Behavior itself.
Need to be sustained chip industry, need to be persistent, need to endure loneliness.Samsung later in the field of chips, rely on the perseverance.Samsung today with the chip earned turned over, but who noticed that Samsung chip business over the past years have long-term loss Samsung chip technology is also bought for the patent, the original 500 million US dollars to buy Sandisk technology patents, most people think Samsung expensive, is a fool behavior, but Samsung has proved its decision is correct.
China's chip industry to achieve beyond the reach of the future, still need some time. 5G era is coming, by 2020 China's chip industry to completely get rid of reliance on foreign countries is not realistic, but in the capital, policy support, Huawei, ZTE , Purple light and other joint efforts of enterprises, independent innovation and capital operation more cursory, production and research work together, from quantitative change to qualitative change, and then after 10 to 15 years, China is entirely possible to rise in the global chip area, completely out of the external Dependent, truly become a global chip industry powerhouse.