Who first seized 'quantum hegemony', who has mastered the technological commanding heights, standard-setting and media domination, occupy a favorable position in industrial competition
'Who first developed a quantum computer, there is no country, it is possible to experience a national security nightmare'
Taking enterprises and scientific research institutions as the guide, the major scientific and technological countries in the world have already entered the war.
Compared with the overall leader in quantum communication, although China's quantum computing is in the "first camp" as a whole, only the individual leaders are leading the way, mostly in the "follow-up"
As the quantum, the recent international IT giant collective 'restless'. Following the end of last year, IBM first released '50 bit quantum computer prototype', Intel released '49 bit quantum chip 'earlier this year, is still under development of Google and Microsoft' new Quantum Weapons, 'has been unable to wait a few days ago to' release a card ', said a few weeks will be announced' milestone 'major achievements.
This is a battle for the future of information productivity. IT giants are eager to seize the first high ground: Quantum hegemony .188 years after the birth of quantum theory, the "second quantum revolution" competition has entered a critical phase. At present, with Enterprises and research institutions as the guide, the world's major scientific and technological countries have been 'war.'
Quantum theory started in 1900 when China was a spectator. In the wave of information science and technology emerging from the "first quantum revolution" in the second half of the 20th century, China became the chaser afterwards. At the critical point of the second quantum revolution, accelerating segment, the window period, 'Chinese Quantum Corps' can become a breakthrough, leader, winner?
The turning point of the new world in overthrowing the old order
Compared with the traditional computer, quantum computer is a kind of subversive transcendence of principle.
In the 1980s, Nobel Prize winner Richard Feynman proposed the idea of constructing 'quantum computation' based on two peculiar quantum properties - quantum stacking and quantum entanglement.
Conventional computers determine whether a bit is '1' or '0' by controlling the transistor's high and low levels, making up the data sequence for serial processing.
The additive nature of a quantum bit can have both '1' and '0' state, entanglement allows multiple bits to share the state, creating a 'super-stacked' quantum parallel computing, computing power increases with the number of bits as an index Grade growth.
In theory, quantum computers can solve complex problems that traditional computers can handle for tens of thousands of years, and with 300 qubits they can support more parallel computations than all the particles in the universe.
Quantum hegemony, it is the landmark turning point in the New World that overthrow the old order.This 'target' proposed by American physicists in 2011 means that when the quantum computer develops to 50 bits, the computing power will surpass the fastest in the world Traditional computer, to achieve 'dominate'.
Who first seized 'quantum hegemony', who mastered the technological commanding height, the standard-setting power and the dominant position of public opinion, occupy a favorable position in industrial competition.
This is why companies such as IBM and Intel are eager to launch 50 and 49 qubits and have aroused great international attention.
'Hegemony' is fiercely competitive
IBM and Intel, which announced major breakthroughs, have achieved or approached quantum hegemony? The answer is no.
Quantities enough, quality is not enough.Many industry experts, Quantum hegemony refers to the 50 bits, on the one hand, but also depends on the quantum entanglement manipulation accuracy, coherence characteristics, logic gate fidelity and other indicators, which is the main difficulty.
'To achieve quantum hegemony at least two key technologies: the number of bits and error correction fault tolerance, can not maintain the fragile quantum coherence, unable to achieve true quantum computing.' 'Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS Key Laboratory of Quantum Information Guo Guangcan said In recent years, the progress of research on quantum bit number has progressed rapidly, but the error correction capability has been slow.
Scott Aronson, director of the Center for Quantum Information at the University of Texas at Austin, said quantum is far from being the only key factor, and D-Wave's products in Canada have achieved 2000 qubits, but these qubits do not seem to be enough Long coherent time, so that the product did not significantly outperform the traditional computer.
'Prototype' and 'test chip' were not approved 2017 Fresnel Award winner, University of Science and Technology Professor Lu Chaoyang that IBM released a 'prototype', did not publish valuable test results, not the academic community Recognition Only with rigorous peer review and publication of test results in international journals, is it authoritative?
Guo Guoping, chief scientist of the state's 'Super 973' solid-state quantum chip project, believes that Intel is releasing a test chip and the test results are still unknown. From Intel's technical solutions, there is still a long way to go to achieve quantum hegemony.
'The hegemony threshold' has risen. The quantum hegemony was set at 50 bits because at that time it was thought that simulating 49 qubits was the limit of traditional computers, but in October last year, at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's traditional computer On the successful simulation of a 56-bit quantum computer.
"Outlook" Newsweek reporter was informed that a recent quantum research group in China again set a new record, can simulate more than 60 bits of quantum computing, which means that the quantum threshold of '' '' '' '' '' '' '' '' '' '' '' '' '' '' '' '' '' ' .
Surveyed scholars believe that several major IT giants released their quantum computing progress intensively, largely for commercial purposes, competition for the industry's right to speak and the public eye, but from the side also shows that accelerated quantum computing, the increasingly fierce international competition.
Multinational investment 'war situation'
Although the quantum hegemony has not yet been achieved, the mainstream view holds that the era of quantum hegemony will inevitably come. This is a competition where no one can afford to lose.
In the information age, once the quantum computing technology is broken through, the countries that have this capability will quickly establish all-round advantages in the fields of economy, military affairs, scientific research and security.
'If the traditional computer is a machine gun, the quantum computer is like a nuclear weapon,' said Pan Jianwei, a member of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and executive vice president of the University of Science and Technology of China.
Christopher Monroe, a professor at the University of Maryland in the United States, said: "Countries that have developed quantum computers first and countries that do not have the potential to experience a national security nightmare."
In recent years, many countries have invested heavily in research and development of quantum computing.
In October last year, the US Congress held a hearing on how to ensure 'America's leadership in quantum technology.' "IBM has invested $ 3 billion in next-generation chips such as Quantum Computing, and Microsoft and several universities have formed Quantum Labs.
The EU has invested 1 billion euros in implementing the 'Quantum Flagship' project starting in 2018. The UK has set up a Quantum Research Center at universities such as Oxford University and has invested about 250 million U.S. dollars to cultivate talent. The Netherlands invested $ 140 million in Quantum at Delft University of Technology Calculate.
Japan plans to invest 360 million U.S. dollars in quantum computing within 10 years and Canada has invested 210 million U.S. dollars to fund the Quantum Research at Waterloo University. The Australian government and banks invested 83 million U.S. dollars to establish a quantum computing company at the University of New South Wales.
Although the strategies of quantum computers in various countries have been clearly defined, their implementation paths are not the same, and they are currently being promoted on a number of technical routes such as superconductivity, semiconductors, photons and ultra-cold atoms.
'Which route will be able to achieve universal quantum computer in the future, the winner is still unknown.' Guo Guangcan said.
Quantum algorithm is another uncertain factor.In order to exert the performance of quantum computer, algorithms must be designed for different problems. At present, the international community has made progress in factorization and unstructured database search.
'Relying on the factorization capability, RSA, a widely used encryption algorithm, can be cracked in the future, so whether it is a credit card, Alipay, or the emerging blockchain technology will be greatly shaken.' 'Associate Research Fellow of Science, Technology and Strategic Society Long Yuan Lanfeng said the evolution of the algorithm will have a profound impact quantum computing 'war situation'.
China's Opportunities and Challenges
With a series of major breakthroughs made by leading scientists and teams such as Pan Jianwei and Guo Guangcan, China now stands on the stage of the world's quantum information science research center. In the recent two years, China launched the world's first quantum communications science experimental satellite, achieving 1,000 km for the first time Quantum entanglement, the successful development of the world's first beyond the early classical computer quantum computer light.
According to the British government's statistics report, China ranks the first in the world in the distribution of quantum research papers and the second in patent applications. During the initial phase of the "second quantum revolution," China suddenly emerged as the world's first "camp."
However, compared with the overall leader in quantum communication, although China's quantum computing is in the "first camp" as a whole, only the individual leaders are leading the way and are mostly following the race.
It is understood that in the quantum computing multiple technical routes, China leads the photon direction, slightly backward in the direction of the semiconductor, ultra-cold atoms, in the superconducting direction was significantly behind.As IBM, Intel announced the realization of 50, 49 superconducting qubits China has announced the highest of 10.
Many scholars believe that in the face of the complicated situation of warlords and big crowds, China faces both challenges and opportunities. It should maintain its strategic strength and confidence in science and technology and give full play to its institutional advantages.
'If the realization of a universal quantum computer like a marathon, now ran a few kilometers ahead of you, I have a chance behind.' Guo Guo-Ping and others believe that the key technical competition is still behind.
Pan Jianwei said that when he returned to China more than a dozen years ago to start the study of quantum communication, some people kept questioning: 'Is this something so difficult that China can make it?' 'The developed countries have not yet done so, are China at risk first?
'This is a kind of' science and technology are not confident, 'I'm not too sure we can do something beyond.' Pan Jianwei said that thanks to the state's support and the 'centralized power to do big things,' the institutional advantages of China's quantum communication has come to the forefront of the world He is equally confident in quantum computing.
Winning the Future, China Must Form 'Army Group'
In China's "13th Five-Year Plan for National Science and Technology Innovation", as a disruptive technology that leads the industrial revolution, quantum computers have been included in the 2030 major project of science and technology innovation.
The industry generally believes that the next 5 to 10 years is the window of quantum computing research and outbreak, the key to winning lies in the layout and coordination of resources.
At present, there are mainly two kinds of organizational models for developing quantum computers in the world. One is "company-driven, market-oriented" and the other is "research-driven and goal-oriented."
Representatives of the first model are IBM, Google, Intel and others. The company cooperates with research institutes such as Yale University and the University of California to drive the commercialization of results driven by market demand and drive the development of quantum hardware and software technologies.
The second model, including China and other countries, with scientific research institutions as the mainstay, aiming at the universal quantum computer research goals, seeking to cooperate with enterprises to promote industrialization.
The surveyed scholars believe that these two models have their own advantages and disadvantages. However, as the research on quantum computing enters the critical point of practicality and industrialization, China should make overall efforts in scientific research and deepen the industrial cooperation.
The recent emergence of 'quantum heat' in many parts of the layout of quantum research, 'recruiting' build laboratory.Scholars believe that emphasis on quantum research is a good thing, but if everyone is launched, the objective will be decentralized funds and forces, resulting in duplication.
'Quantum research is now not a scholar or a team level competition, but the competition has become the country's overall strength.' Pan Jianwei said.
20 years ago, I had somewhat risked to write a letter to Mr. Qian Xuesen, hoping he would like to develop 'two bombs and one satellite', the lead organization of quantum computers. 'Guo Guangcan memories, Qian replied that he had been sitting in a wheelchair Can not get out of work, but very supportive of this idea.
Guo Guangcan suggested that China's national laboratory of quantum information planning and construction should land as soon as possible to exert its institutional advantages and coordinate the efforts of all parties to 'play a game of chess' and' make concerted efforts with all innovators to make the best in each aspect rather than singling out each team Fight
In terms of industrialization, at present, Alibaba, CSIC and other companies in China started cooperation with a large number of quantum research teams of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the Anhui Provincial Government set up a 10 billion yuan investment fund for the quantum industry, but no matter the scale or the depth, Of the 'Quantum Research Alliance' there is a big gap.
'To win the quantum supremacy battle, can not do' guerrilla ', we must organize the' Army. '' Guo Guangcan said that the quantum computer industry involves hardware, software, standards, engineering, user habits and other aspects, the need for government support, research Institutions, business cooperation and even the general public.Only by pooling superior forces and innovating operational mechanisms, China can lead the 'war situation' and avoid revisiting the passive and following traditional path of the computer industry.