1. 2018 ODM smart machine or 440 million will be the future, the mobile phone industry ODM proportion of over 55%;
On February 14, Counterpoint, the world's leading research organization, released the Whitepaper on Analysis and Forecast of the Status of the Global ODM / IDH Technology Industry 2017. The report provides a detailed analysis of the current and future forecast of the ODM / IDH industry.
2017 ODM + IDH status analysis:
According to Counterpoint research 2017 statistics, nearly 400 million handsets will be manufactured and manufactured using ODM models, accounting for 26% of all smartphones shipped globally in 2017. ODM shipments are expected to continue to grow in 2018 to reach 440 million, close to 30% of overall handset shipments, will approach or exceed the EMS mode.
The company is located in:
Counterpoint said global mobile phone OEM representatives Samsung and Apple's limited growth, and both production and R & D generally EMS and in-House mode, so with the rise of local mobile phone OEMs, especially Chinese manufacturers, the future of the overall mobile phone Industry outsourcing model shipments will further increase, the long-term forecast will exceed 55% of the overall market.ODM model can help handset manufacturers more effectively control costs, more quickly respond to market changes, it is widely welcomed by OEM players.
Currently, there are two types of representative players adopting ODM: one is Chinese players such as Huawei, Xiaomi, Lenovo, ZTE and TCL, etc. The second category is overseas local brands and local operators brands, while the future international brands such as SONY and LG Will further increase the use of ODM models in products (and more from Taiwan ODM to mainland ODM transfer) .In addition, OPPO, VIVO and other Chinese manufacturers are examining the feasibility of developing outsourced ODM business.
Global Top 5 mobile phone ODM + IDH analysis:
Overall, in 2017, the first two players of handset ODM + IDH handsets, Huaqin and Wentai, both sold close to 80 million units. Both advantages are clear and far ahead. IDH business and Germany mainly focus on Meizu ODM business and overseas assembly factory.Longqi mainly supports product services and eco-chain hardware layout of Xiaomi.Long Long emphasis on overseas ODM market and build their own OEM brand.
Hutchison: As the industry leader in ODM, with the support of long-term customers such as Huawei and Lenovo in 2017 and the addition of new customers such as Xiaomi and LG in 2017, the growth rate has been significantly increased by 36% over 2016.
Wen Tai: The largest proportion of mobile phones in the business and the main focus of large customers, including Xiaomi, Huawei, Lenovo and Meizu. Wenteng's main customer is millet, but more with the millet for the IDH model cooperation; In addition, the high pass is heard Thai strategic partner, Qualcomm products in Wen-tai total shipments accounted for 70%.
And Germany: the previous rise with the Meizu upgrade and firmly in the second camp.Now with the German factory in the overseas production speed and strategic planning is the leading. 2017 and Germany nearly 10 million products manufactured from overseas factories, but These do not belong to the ODM and IDH models and are therefore excluded from our ODM + IDH statistics.
Dragon flag: Reliance on millet rebounded in 2017. Due to the decline in the sales volume of HTC and its overseas brands, the orders from Xiaomi and Lenovo account for more than 80% of Dragon's total business. Very dependent.
Tian Long: Own brand Wiko had previously contributed to the overall business of Tian Long, but fierce competition from competitors in overseas markets in 2017 made it difficult for the weak sales volume to continue to drive Tian Long's business growth overseas expansion, Tian Long from South America And North American operators ODM business is still under development, not enough to make its own brand of candy mobile phone sales temporarily unclear, pending further observation.
Global Top 5 Mobile Phone ODM Perspectives: Overall, more than 300 million handsets were shipped via ODM (Design and Manufacturing) models in 2017. Due to the mature design team and labor force in mainland China, this mode is Most mainland mobile phone OEM companies used.
Global Top 5 Mobile Phone IDH Perspectives: Overall, fewer than 100 million shipments of only the design (also known as IDH) shipments were made in 2017. Longqi and Wentech are the leaders in IDH's business With the cooperation with millet , Wen Tai won the lead in the field of IDH, especially the red rice product line designed by Wen Tai Foundry, which has achieved outstanding results. In the business of Xiaomi, Wen Tai adopted the model mainly for designing products by himself and outsourcing the design to Foxconn or Ying Huada assembled.
Global Tablet ODM / EMS Industry Analysis:
According to Counterpoint's prediction of the 2017 global tablet PC industry, total tablet shipments were about 170 million units, of which ODM contributed 64% and about 120 million units.
Foxconn is clearly the leader in the field of tablet ODM / EMS, Apple's main tablet supplier, the overall shipments of about 30 million.Hundao as a new entrant in recent years, rapid integration of resources to seize Amazon, Lenovo and Huawei 3 major customers to make its flat-panel ODM business by leaps and bounds in 2017 close to 17 million units, ranking second.And 10 million Amazon All new fire 7 hot can not be separated from the hardworking credit Compal 's customers are mostly traditional PC makers.
Global Top 5 ODM / IDH Technology Industry Operating Income Analysis:
Thanks to its outstanding performance in mass-market ODMs such as mobile phones, tablet PCs and NBs, Hutchison has generated revenue of more than 23 billion in 2017. Among them, more than 10 billion mobile phones and over 5 billion flat-panel TVs business.
Wen Tai business model more like millet, emphasis on light assets.Compared with other ODM, Wen Tai phone IDH mode design business accounted for more, so operating income is lower than China Qin.In addition, Wen Tai is not just a traditional ODM foundry Business, as well as other hardware and supply chain finance.But the operating income contribution, it is clear that mobile ODM + IDH business accounted for the largest.
ODM industry trends in the region:
Counterpoint reports that after 2014, with the popularization of smartphones, the rise of Chinese brands and the sensitivity of international brands to the cost of products, OEM customers have shifted their businesses to costumer ODMs in Mainland China, and after 2018, ODM suppliers in mainland China have the advantages of integrated industry chain and cost advantages, almost monopolizing the global technology and mobile ODM industry.
In order to continuously enhance the production capacity (increase manpower and reduce costs) to meet the OEM customers growing production design needs, mainland ODM manufacturers are also advancing with the times, the transfer of their production base: The first way is to the eastern part of the factory transfer of the coastal To the central and western parts of mainland China The second approach is to establish or join assembly lines in Southeast Asia (such as India and Indonesia) to reduce labor costs and reduce tariffs, and to better serve OEM customers.
The global ODM + IDH industry cluster and division of labor are basically formed: Most of the world's ODM industry chain (design, R & D, procurement, component supply, logistics and manufacturing) and ODMs are clustered in mainland China while Taiwan focuses on manufacturing scale Equipment investment and EMS business, as well as serving high-end OEMs. Japan, South Korea and the United States are major suppliers of high-end components. Southeast Asia is dominated by the assembly industry: a large number of assembly plants in India and Indonesia.
ODM technology industry product trends insight:
Mobile phones, computers (including desktops and laptops) and flat-panel businesses account for over 85% of ODMs in technology products, commonly known as the "Big Three." Terminal ODM services such as smartphones, IOTs, and wearable devices currently account for relatively small but Prospects for future growth.
The mobile ODM business looked at the product category for its comprehensive capabilities (funding, R & D, supplier and platform support and integration capabilities), intelligent acoustics for AI acoustics, IoT communications and chip modules, wearable and VR terminals.
Counterpoint-ODM Capabilities Quadrant and Pattern Prediction:
Counterpoint combines ODM technology more than 10 years of research, considering the product, brand, supply chain and quality factors.ODM development model is expected to:
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A mode: Super supply chain and automation advantages + EMS upgrade mode + OEM brand. On behalf of the player Foxconn. Analysts said good, with its own strong supply chain capabilities and stability EMS big customer Apple's support, Counterpoint optimistic about this model and player prospects .
B mode; strong supply chain + new product advantages. On behalf of the players Hua Qin, Wen Tai. Analysts said the fine, due to the mobile ODM field has a stable customer support and expand the success of large-scale product experience, Counterpoint on this model and this player Prospects are good.
Mode C: This mode has the ODM design and manufacturing capacity + OEM brand business. Representative: Tian Long. Analysts said there is uncertainty because of the huge investment in OEM development mode, and the strong competition from Chinese brands.
Mode D: ODM capabilities and supply chain resources in general, or only with IDH business ability, a single product, rely on the mobile phone business. Analysts said the mode business model is limited, only IDH although it can meet the needs of some emerging markets, but not long-term Continued, need to develop new product business as a support.
Finally, the Counterpoint report said that in the ODM development model, the A and B modes are relatively stable.
In the context of the entire ODM science and technology transfer to the mainland, with the rapid growth of smart phones and other technology products, a number of representative ODM players emerged, such as: Hua Qin, Wen Tai, Dragon Flag, Acoustics, etc. At the same time, we also see that OEM customers are increasingly demanding ODMs and they hope that docking from design to mass production will be more efficient and smooth. This will have an impact on the design, procurement, supply and delivery of ODMs , Quality and flexibility, and even more stringent and detailed requirements on the resource allocation and integration capabilities of some IT systems, etc. ODM can provide not only product design and production but also a set of service support system.In addition, because ODM is heavy Assets of science and technology manufacturing industry, the control of capital and cash flow is very harsh, which also continuously improve the entry barrier ODM industry Finally, as a labor-intensive ODM technology industry, how to control and stabilize labor costs is an eternal topic. (Proofreading / blue sky)
2.208 year global smart phone annual growth rate converged to 2.8%, start a new round of knockout;
Set micro-grid news, global market research firm set state consulting pointed out that in 2018 smart phone market performance, due to the lack of arousing consumer willingness to change the subject of innovation, the estimated smart phone market demand throughout the year momentum continued weakness; in terms of cost, Affected by the continuous rise of upstream component prices, downstream mobile phone brands have to re-examine the terminal pricing or adjust the size of the equipment in response to cost pressures.This year, the market share of the brand will show a big winner, winner take-all pattern. The consultation cut the growth rate of global smart phone production this year to another 2.8% from the previous forecast of 5% and the total output is about 1.5 billion.
Reviewing the global smart phone market in 2017, the first half of the year was affected by the forthcoming new work on the tenth anniversary of Apple. The market saw a strong atmosphere and a downturn in buying power. In the second half of the year, all brands of handset makers turned to the full screen, However, actual sales were not as expected. Therefore, starting from the fourth quarter, all major smartphone brand manufacturers have reduced their quarterly production plans to meet the cost risk brought by the high inventory level of finished products.
To observe the performance of international brands, with its long-term deep plowing the global market, Samsung still maintains the highest global mobile phone brand production volume in 2018. Looking forward to this year's Samsung performance, it still supports the overall situation with mid-range and low-end A and J series models and forecasts production The total will be 300 million, a decline of 5% from last year.
Last year, the total output of smartphones remained the second highest in the world. Looking ahead to the plan of Apple's flagship new aircraft this year, it is estimated that Apple will expand the adoption of Face ID and full-screen and optimize the existing functions to increase memory capacity and Will release the schedule according to the past will be released in the third quarter of three flagship machine simultaneously.Midbon Consulting said that this year's production of Apple's performance will benefit from Face ID, full screen and other projects optimized and India's hard work Etc., is expected to grow by 6%.
LG announced its withdrawal from the Chinese market a few days ago. The move reflects the fact that international brands are currently not easy to survive in the Chinese market. In addition to the growing sense of support for state-owned brands in the Chinese market, the most important factor is the high CP value incentive of China's own brands , Making it increasingly difficult for international brands to maintain their operations in the Chinese market.
Looking forward to LG's performance this year, due to its brand awareness and long-term hard work in the North American market, although the estimated total production volume declined slightly compared with last year, it still has the opportunity to rank the seventh place globally with a total of 60 million; Sony Sony, in recent years, changed its product strategy to profitable mid- to high-end handsets and will continue this strategy this year. However, under the impact of weaker demand for the environment, the estimated total production volume will be only 15.3 million units, Compared with last year's decline of 4%.
Nokia's partnership with HMD and FIH Mobile will revitalize the stove in 2017 with a production capacity of 11.5 million in the first year. It is estimated that in 2018, the cost advantage of the FIH Mobile purchase will be estimated, and in India, The tariff advantage of the plant has grown in the mid- to low-end smartphone market, where cost pressures are tremendous. It is estimated that by 2018 Nokia will have more than 70% growth and the total number of production opportunities will surpass 20 million.
Chinese brands attack emerging markets, millet have the opportunity to surpass OPPO
Over the past few years, Chinese brands have achieved one-sided dominance over the strong domestic demand market. However, as China's smart phone market is gradually becoming more saturated, both established and emerging brands are starting to move towards building overseas markets and seeking overseas telecom operators Cooperation, in order to maintain the city level.
To observe the layout trends of Chinese brands in 2018, Huawei will actively develop applications of 3D Sensing in addition to further increasing the share of HiSilicon chips in 2018. As for the strategy of reducing the proportion of low-end handsets last year, this strategy will be revised and balanced again this year With the development of all product lines, it is estimated that the total output will have the opportunity to exceed 173 million and the market share will reach 11.6%.
The Chinese brands OPPO and vivo still performed well in 2017, with annual growth rates of 13% and 17% respectively, ranking the fourth in the world and fifth in the world. Looking to 2018, due to the fact that the growth momentum of both will come mainly from China market sales, coupled with the two specifications in the use of more high-profile, the key components of the high prices also continue to reduce its profit margins, resulting in the difficulty of maintaining high growth.Midbon consultants said that by the saturation of China's domestic market , The overall production volume of OPPO and vivo in 2018 will show a slight decline of 5% compared with that in 2017. Therefore, both OPPO and vivo have actively involved in the development of overseas markets and have begun to enter the European markets in addition to India and Southeast Asia. In order to maintain the high market share in emerging markets.
In 2017, the number of millet produced exceeded 90 million, a year-on-year increase of 83%, following global rankings. According to the estimate of the state council, millet will maintain its positive growth in 2018 with an estimated total production of 107 million , An annual growth rate of 15%, will have the opportunity to surpass OPPO, market share jumped to fourth in the world.However, millet is also facing the impact of rising component costs and higher tariffs in India, adding to market sales variables.
Lenovo's total production volume in 2018 will have the opportunity to reach 52 million square meters in 2017 and eighth in the world. Benefiting from the combined performance of the Group's brands in emerging countries, Telecoms Holding ranks ninth in the world in 2017, It is estimated that this trend will continue in 2018 with the aim of expanding overseas markets. The production volume will have the opportunity to increase by more than 10 million over the previous year with an estimated total of 50.7 million.
Full-screen mobile phone, dual-lens into the 2018 mainstream mobile phone specifications
In 2018, the development of smart phones will continue to enhance the user experience, including full-screen, dual lens to expand the use of, but in the biometric recognition, subject to the current technical threshold and high cost, in addition to iPhone continue to use Face ID ( Face recognition), Samsung continued iris recognition technology, the rest of the smart phone brands are the first to maintain the traditional capacitive fingerprint identification based on the estimated Android camp equipped with 3D Sensing or under the screen fingerprint recognition technology, the new machine will have to 2018 It is possible to enter mass production in the second half of the year.
3.iPhone wireless charging into the tasteless mature application is the biggest stumbling block;
Apple's mobile phone is the industry benchmark.After Apple followed up a new hardware technology, many mobile phone manufacturers have followed.Report from the supply chain, the flagship model of major mobile phone brands in 2018, and no wireless charging. In other words, in the popularity of wireless charging, Apple did not change the industry.
Why wireless charging has become an abandoned industry
In many people's opinion, wireless charging is a trendy technology, but as of now, in addition to Apple and Samsung flagship mobile phone built-in wireless charging, rare mobile phone brands love wireless charging.
As a cell phone technology that has existed for nearly a decade, wireless charging has almost become an outcast for the industry, which is thought-provoking.
From the experience of the wireless charging function of the apple cell phone, we may be able to find out the real reason that the cell phone wireless charging technology is difficult to popularize.The latest generation of Apple cell phones, using Qi wireless charging technology, this technology was used in 2009 in the Palm smartphone Nearly a decade has passed, with only a handful of phones such as the Nokia Lumia 920 supporting wireless charging.
Compared with the traditional charging mode, the wireless charging function seems to be convenient, the actual experience is poor.With the iPhone X, the use of wireless charging, you must put the phone on the wireless charging panel.Once the mobile phone location, wireless charging may Will be suspended.More users collapse is that the iPhone's wireless charging power is only 7.5W, Qi wireless charging technology than the standard 15W half the small.
Apple mobile phone wireless charging power in half, the impact is that the phone charging time longer.Apple mobile phone users, using cable charging more than 2 hours can be full, and the use of wireless charging, at least 4 hours Full, plus many users also like to play mobile phone charging, the use of wireless charging can no longer play mobile phone, which can be said to be a major shortcomings of wireless charging technology.
The wireless charging power of Apple's mobile phones is castrated because of some technical reasons.Samsung handsets have a wireless charging power of 15W and use a wireless charging speed that is almost the same as the wired charging speed.From the user's point of view, wireless charging technology is a bit tasteless. Because of this, wireless charging technology will become an outcast for the industry.
Apple can promote the popularity of wireless charging technology
Throughout the history of Apple's mobile phone will find that Apple has led the technological change more than once in the iPhone 4. Apple introduced the first Rentina screen, then the smart phone screen into the 720P era, and 2K HD era.When Apple wireless charging Technology into the iPhone 8 series phones and iPhone X mobile phone, whether it can promote the popularity of wireless charging technology it?
On the status quo, Apple is very difficult to promote the popularity of wireless charging technology in the upcoming flagship phone in 2018. Only came the news of millet phone to support wireless charging.Only appearance has been imitated Apple's OPPO, did not introduce wireless Charging technology plans.In addition to OPPO, the first camp of domestic mobile phone Huawei, vivo these two major mobile phone brands have not launched plans to support wireless charging feature phones.From the supply chain, said that so far no handset manufacturers to order wireless charging hardware. It seems that most mobile phone brands are not optimistic about wireless charging technology.
Immature industry chain brings disruptive experience
Although Apple has repeatedly led the smart phone industry, hardware technology changes, but this time can not let other mobile phone brands to follow up wireless charging technology, wireless charging technology is difficult to give consumers a disruptive experience.
Of course, mobile wireless charging is difficult to popularize, the industry chain is immature is a factor that can not be ignored.Wireless charging hardware is not universal, to a certain extent, also limits the popularity of wireless charging technology.For example, to use wireless charging Way to charge the iPhone X, you must buy a wireless charging panel.In recent years, stations, hotels, restaurants and many other places have charging equipment, people are very convenient to charge the mobile phone.Wireless charging panel, but it is a lot of business premises Scarce thing.
However, the biggest stumbling block to the popularity of wireless charging technology, or not yet mature application.In some science fiction blockbusters, wireless charging without having to put the phone on the charging panel, you can use Wifi-like wireless signal charging.If this scene can be achieved, The popularity of wireless charging is not a dream, so Apple has a certain influence on the industry, it is difficult to promote the popularity of wireless charging technology and change.
Over the past ten years, the development of wireless charging technology is very slow, indicating that the market demand for wireless charging is not urgent.At the same time, there are still too many shortcomings of wireless charging function, it is difficult to get rid of the awkwardness of the panel and seriously affect the wireless charging Functional user experience. Just imagine, iPhone's wireless charging features are very tasteless, of course, can not change the industry, the Apple.
4. Nokia jumped the world's sixth largest mobile phone factory mayor rate of 5%;
Set micro-mesh news, Nokia returned to the smart phone market in 2017, did not expect it only a year, mobile phone sales and market share have risen sharply.In terms of the overall mobile phone market, Nokia is the world's sixth largest factory, the total out Volume reached 2,510 million, the market share of 5%.
According to market research firm CounterPoint reported that Nokia sold 4.4 million smartphones in the fourth quarter of last year, although the market share of only 1%, but beyond the HTC, Sony, Google and Lenovo and other mobile phone factory, the global smart phone rankings came 11th, just one step can squeeze into the top ten.
If only look at some countries, Nokia's performance even more prominent, Nokia smart phones in the United Kingdom ranked third in Russia, Vietnam and most Middle East countries, Nokia is the fifth.
It is worth mentioning that the Nokia feature phones are also signs of recovery in the fourth quarter of last year, a total of 20.7 million shipments, the city accounted for 15% of the world's first.
From the product perspective, the HMD team quickly adapted to the fierce pace of the current handset market over the past year, introducing 11 models of handsets in a year with their own distinctive features such as Nokia 6 being the first Nokia Android smartphone, Nokia 3310 colorful and fashion changed people's perception of function machine, Nokia 8 first Zeiss certification ...
Xu Lixin, vice president of HMD and Greater China vice president of HMD, said in a short period of one year, Nokia mobile phones have entered a series of new products in 170 countries in more than 80 markets around the world and their official websites are also presented in 48 different languages, This laid a solid foundation for future development.
5 red rice Note5 dual version released tomorrow the first pass Qualcomm Snapdragon 636 processor;
Set micro-network news, although millet is a domestic mobile phone manufacturers, the new products will be preferred in the domestic release, but due to the excellent performance of the millet market in India last year, successfully beat Samsung in the fourth quarter to become the market first, making Lei Jun very happy, decided to add Big investment in the Indian market, in order to show the importance of the Indian market, Xiaomi this year specifically the first new conference selected in India.
As early as 8 days ago, millet began preheating the red rice new product launch conference entitled 'give me 5', implying the new product features from the aspects of life and appearance, and appealed to the appetite of many fans.
From the February 14 conference only one day left , Foreign media can not stand the millet 'sell off child' marketing, under the wrath of the two products to be released Xiaomi screenshots put out, let's first take a quick look!
The first product is called Red Rice Note5Its hardware configuration is: 6.0-inch FHD + full screen, equipped with Qualcomm Snapdragon 625 processor, 12 million rear camera, 8 million front camera, 3GB + 32GB / 4GB + 64GB storage, 4G network support, Installed based on Andrews 8.0 depth custom MIUI9, four colors available.Its biggest feature is the 4000 mAh big battery, it is easy to see the red rice Note5 main endurance.
The second product called red rice Note5 Pro , It is compared with the red rice Note5, the hardware configuration is higher than a full grade: the first Qualcomm Snapdragon 636 processor, 6.0-inch FHD + full screen, 12 million +5 million rear camera, 20 million front camera , 3GB + 32GB / 4GB + 64GB / 6GB + 64GB storage, 4G network, pre-installed based on Android 8