Industry policy dividends continue | The pharmaceutical sector usher in configuration opportunities

Pharmaceutical Network February 12 hearing recently, the market a sharp correction, without exception, the major plates. After the crash, the investment opportunities for the pharmaceutical sector? Analysts believe that the aging population and other factors, the demand for drugs, medical equipment will be A rapid development trend, to the pharmaceutical and biological industries to bring a broader space for development, the market affected by the callback medical stocks usher in the configuration opportunity.

Since the fourth quarter of last year, the dividend policy of the pharmaceutical and biological industries has been continuously increasing. On October 8, 2017, the "Decision on Deepening the Reform of the Examination and Approval System for Reviews drug Opinions on Innovation of Medical Devices "promulgated to promote industrial restructuring and technological innovation of pharmaceutical and medical devices from six aspects: reforming clinical trial management, accelerating listing approval review and approval, promoting drug innovation and generic drug development, and enhancing industrial competitiveness.

Analysis generally agreed that this marks the introduction of high-profile industry development policies will boost the confidence of enterprises engaged in research and development of new drugs. Merchants Securities (600999, stock it) pointed out that this is a programmatic document on the review and approval system of pharmaceutical equipment review of our country medicine The industry has far-reaching significance.China is already a big country of generic drugs, but also has a certain ability to imitate innovation. At this time, the state deepens the reform of the examination and approval system, hoping to promote the innovation of pharmaceutical devices from imitation to imitation.

Since the promulgation of heavyweight documents that encourage the innovation of pharmaceutical equipment, a number of supporting policies have been issued successively, including the revision of the two major documents of the Drug Administration Law and the Drug Registration Administration Measures and the adjustment of the related matters concerning the registration of imported drugs. The CDE first published No effective domestic patents, no generic application list and release of drugs medical instruments Supervision and Management Ordinance Amendment With the support of policies, the progress of listing of innovative drugstores in China will be significantly accelerated, and docking with products and technologies in overseas markets will be more direct.

Clear growth is expected to stabilize the industry fundamentals, but also the pharmaceutical stocks are sought after reasons.According to Flush (iFinD data statistics, as of February 11 has been disclosed in the 2017 annual report of the four pharmaceutical companies, 3 The company recorded a significant growth in performance, of which 156 were pre-hi (pre-increase, slight increase, surplus profit, turnaround) of the 194 companies that have disclosed their 2017 performance forecasts, accounting for 80.41% of the total. Increase by 30% or more, 34 are expected to double the performance.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the added value of the industrial and pharmaceutical industries maintained their growth. In the first nine months of 2017, 36 industries in 41 major industries maintained the growth rate with a growth rate of 87.8%, unchanged from the same period of last year In September, the added value of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 6.6% YoY in September from a year earlier, while the industrial added value of large-sized industrials increased by 6.7% YoY in January-September. Among them, the added value of the pharmaceutical industry increased by 11.8% YoY in January-September and 13.2% in September. Visible, the growth rate of the pharmaceutical industry was significantly higher than the overall industry average, the characteristics of its sunrise industry is still very clear

Institutional analysis that the medical industry experienced the highest point in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 basically three years in a state of growth rate down, the industry growth since 2017 once again resumed above 10%, the industry has emerged anti State Securities (600109, Shares), said the second quarter and third quarter 2017 data further validated the healthy pattern of the industry is expected to continue until 2018. The industry fundamentals improved sequentially, structural quality growth has emerged The coming year is a window of growth for good companies.

According to the "Health China 2030" Plan, the market scale of health care services will exceed 8 trillion yuan by 2020. According to the analysis, China has achieved full coverage of the basic medical insurance system. As the proportion of reimbursement for health insurance increases, the coverage of serious illness and health insurance coverage Expanding patient's ability to pay Increasing demand for health care products.New urbanization will promote the development of primary health care services.With the improvement of primary health care services and the reform of the health insurance system, the broad grassroots consumer market will continue to be released.

Data show that during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, total expenditure on health care and health care reached 4.6307 trillion yuan, an average annual increase of 17.06% .Compared with the average annual increase of 13.8% in fiscal expenditures and nominal annual GDP growth of 12.6%, per capita urban residents The average annual growth rate of disposable income was 11.3% and the per capita disposable income of rural residents increased at an average annual rate of 13.3%. The growth of financial health expenditure was obviously higher.

Data show that China is currently in the initial stage of population aging in 2015, China accounted for more than 10% of the population aged over 65 for the first time in 2015, the future trend will accelerate.It is estimated that the elderly over 65 years of age medication per capita is the young drug costs 3.7 times, the next 30 years from the demand side of view, China's pharmaceutical market will usher in explosive expansion.

Insiders pointed out that the long-term steady growth of the pharmaceutical and biological industries has provided a guarantee for the population aging, the upgrading of the consumption structure, the reform and improvement of the health insurance system, and the new urbanization. The industry contains many genuine high-quality growth stocks and the growth logic of the pharmaceutical and biological industries Clear, bright prospects for development, pharmaceutical biotechnology industry and the theme of the pharmaceutical fund excellent long-term investment value no doubt.

In the opinion of CICC, the medical organism has entered the system of bonus period, and the speed of review of new drugs continues to accelerate. As the adjustment of the end-use drug structure continues, new growth points will emerge constantly. At present, the domestic and overseas developed countries' There are huge differences in the structure. There is also a huge space for upgrading the medical sector in the future and it is currently under way.

Recently, the market appears a sharp correction, the major plates without exception. After the crash, the investment opportunities for the pharmaceutical sector? Analysts believe that the medical and biological industries have a broad space for development, the market affected by the callback medical stocks usher in the configuration opportunity. Configuration, optimistic about the industry to benefit from concentration and prescription outflow of pharmaceutical and pharmacy business, localization of high-end equipment, the new Medicare directory and medical insurance payment, classification and treatment of low-priced drugs directory and other related stocks.At present, the overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector relative Reasonable, choose a stock to be both growth and valuation of both, with the mentality of neutral holding calmly waiting.

For pharmaceutical stocks, it also combines the characteristics of consumption and technology.Consumer characteristics are mainly due to irreplaceable and rigid.Especially the expansion of the coverage of medical insurance in our country, the increase of residents' income after the health requirements increase, making The demand for pharmaceutical industry continues to boost. The features of science and technology are mainly reflected in the need for innovation in medicine. Not only the emergence of new diseases requires new drugs, but also new drugs are more effective. Therefore, innovative drugs often have strong Profitability and growth capabilities, "said an insurance agency investment manager.

In terms of targets, the institute reported three main lines that recommend long-term trends: 1. R & D and innovation are fundamental, and the more they focus on R & D investment and efficiency in the future, the opening of the era of innovative medicines should be the key recommendation of Fosun Pharma Co., Ltd. (600196) (600,196), Hengrui Pharmaceutical (600,276), concerned Tiger Medical (300,347, stock it) (300,347); two to three years, the policy to bring high-quality generic drugs to enhance the concentration and import substitution opportunities, Optimistic about China's pharmaceutical (600056, Shares) (600056), East China Pharmaceutical (000 963), Well Wah Pharmaceutical (002262, Shares) (002362, Xian Pharmaceutical) Rapid growth of the sub-industry leader. Focus on the recommendation of Dean's diagnosis (300,244 shares) (300,244), Antitu biological (603658), concern Tiger Medical (300,347), Lepu Medical (300,003, stock it) Diving medical (002223, Shares) (002223) and Ireland Eye (300015, Shares) (300015).

Industrial Securities, said that with the gradual deepening of medical reform, clinical pathway, drug control, the list of supporting drugs, medical insurance control costs, consistency assessment, clinical verification and other policies change the industry ecology, good product line reserves, academic Promote bright spots, marketing of powerful prescription drugs enterprise In addition, some natural haven types of industries such as pharmaceutical consumer products / OTC and policy-less narcotic drugs, blood products are worth the strategic attention of investors in the field. Recommended East China Pharmaceutical, China Orchid (002007, stock it) (002007), China Resources 39,000 (000999), Pien Tze Huang (600,436, stock it) (600,436) and other targets, concerned about the human well-being medicine (600079) and so on.

Ping An Securities proposed five main lines of the configuration of pharmaceutical stocks: 1. Innovative drugs and high imitation medicine leading stocks rise: Recommended Hengrui Medicine, East China Pharmaceutical, Livzon Group (000,513), Enhua Pharmaceutical (002262), attention Fosun Pharma, Yi Fan Pharmaceutical (002019), Hong Hong Pharmaceutical (002773, Shares) (002773); 2. To benefit from the "two votes system" and prescription outflows of pharmaceutical distribution and chain pharmacies: Shanghai Pharmaceutical (601607, Shares) 601607), the Chinese medicine, Kyushu pass (600998), a heart Church (002727, Shares) (002727); 3. Resource-based brands to upgrade traditional Chinese medicine, superposition of state-owned enterprise reform: Yunnanbaiyao recommended (000,538, stock it) 000539); 4. Medical devices and services leading enterprises, highlighting the cost-effective, Recommended Le Pu medical, Runda Medical (603,108, Shares) (603,108), concerned about the diagnosis of Dean; (002675, stock it) (002675), Zhendong Pharmaceutical (300,158, stock it) (300,158), Antu biological, Chi fly biological (300,122, stock it) (300,122).