supply
February ABS manufacturers more normal production, distribution of oil reduced by 30%, logistics work time is short, the majority of ABS manufacturers inventory will increase dramatically to reach a high point of stock, and this high point is often the year-long high, the face of High inventory situation, manufacturers take more negative measures to reduce inventory.
demand
The downstream appliance industry started a general decline, the operating rate of the air conditioning industry is more down 19%, while the air conditioning industry has a great impact on the ABS, while the downstream small and medium-sized factories relapse relatively slow, demand is low for a short time.
Raw material trend
Styrene accounted for the largest share of the three major raw materials, but the rate of increase in January was small, butadiene shocks on the trend, but the impact is still not large, higher acrylonitrile shocks, the impact of increased styrene and acrylonitrile in January the greatest impact, Butadiene smaller.
Styrene: From February to March, Asia, Europe and the United States were all in the overhaul season. It is expected that insufficient import and export will be available and the inventory accumulation rate will hardly accelerate. After the Spring Festival, the business optimists' attitude remains. At the same time, after the strong trend in January, People at the bottom of the market price of styrene psychological prices have also been improved.However, it is undeniable that near the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream plant facing the lack of stocking intention of high prices of raw materials, some will advance holiday, phased oversupply situation will market formation Therefore, a comprehensive view, the styrene market in February does not rule out a brief correction before the holiday may be, but the overall price range will remain high.
Butadiene: Next month, although there is no obvious inventory pressure in Northeast China, traders have limited supply of low-cost hand in hand, and driven by the high price of external disk, they support the mentality of the domestic market. However, with the late arrival of imported goods, some downstream rubber factories One after another into the holiday state, the market demand gradually weakened, coupled with the approaching Spring Festival holiday, traders gradually delisting, the market will be difficult to have significant fluctuations.And after the Spring Festival, the downstream manufacturers demand recovery is slow, and near the end of the market difficult to follow In conclusion, the domestic butadiene market is expected to be under maintenance next month or to maintain the trend of consolidation.
Acrylonitrile: February acrylonitrile market or will continue to rise.On the raw material side, the short-term propylene market or high consolidation, the cost of positive .Supply surface, the factory without inspection plan, the supply side is stable .At the end of the month, the manufacturers continue to make up, the market bullish Strong mentality, tight cargo status temporarily unable to ease.Overall, the market next month will continue to rise.
February material impact ABS trend is the largest styrene.
Market mentality
Market mentality is more entangled, due to the decline in demand, some business attitude bearish; market middlemen and downstream manufacturers stocks low, some South American market players keep a slight bullish sentiment.
Conclusion: The holiday market rose more or less.