In recent years, the US technology companies represented by FANGMA have gradually become the deserved market cap of the US stock market, while in the A-share market, Hikvision (BOE), BOE A (5.190, -0.39, -6.99%), San'an Optoelectronics (22.510, 0.13, 0.58%), HKUST (47.420, -1.61, -3.28%) and other emerging industries pilot companies have also successfully among the market capitalization of the market, the Sino-US capital market pairs Tech companies have reached unprecedented heights, and comparing our market capitalization and penetration (measured by market capitalization as a share of GDP) of China and the United States found that the current development of China's technology industry is still far below the level of the United States .As China's economy In the new era, the concept of innovation and development has been thoroughly implemented and the space for growth in science and technology in our country remains vast.
Here, considering that most local giants that reflect the level of development of China's science and technology industries have chosen to go public overseas, we measure the scale of development of China's science and technology industry with the sum of the market capitalization of China's science and technology enterprises listed in China, Hong Kong and the United States, Compared with the total market value of science and technology listed companies.According to the comparison we found that the current total market value of US technology listed companies is about 7.72 trillion US dollars, while China this value is only 2.08 trillion US dollars, a difference of nearly four times.
At the permeability level, the total market capitalization of US technology listed companies as a percentage of GDP is as high as 39.83% at present, compared with only 16.42% in China and 2.43 times that of US technology stocks. China's technology industry still has a large proportion Development of space 'argument can be further strengthened.
2, China's science and technology leader is small in size and should continue to be bigger and stronger in the future
This part of the study mainly studies the internal structure of the technology industry in China and the United States, including the market concentration, based on the different scale of market capitalization and different market capitalization rankings in our industry. Our overall conclusion points to the fact that the concentration of China's technology industry is still relatively low, The market capitalization of the top three leading companies low concentration.So the future of China's leading technology companies in the future should be further bigger and stronger in order to be able to compete more effectively with their counterparts in the United States.
First of all, China's A-share technology leader size is still relatively small.
According to the statistics of 10 billion, 50 billion and 100 billion U.S. dollars, we found that the leading companies in China's science and technology industry are significantly smaller than those in the United States. The market capitalization of US-based science and technology companies is basically 50 billion U.S. dollars or even 100 billion U.S. dollars In the United States dollar range (US stocks, the market value of 500-1000 billion range of companies a total of 12, the market value of more than 100 billion US dollars in 17 companies), by contrast, A shares of technology listed companies more concentrated in the market value of 10 billion Only one company has a market capitalization of more than 50 billion U.S. dollars.
Second, we counted the concentration of TOP3 and TOP13 market capitalization companies and found that the concentration of TOP3 in China was significantly lower than that in the United States.
We define the companies with market cap TOP3 in each industry as the leading category, the companies with market rankings 4-13 rank as the leading category 2 and the other companies as non-leading companies, The United States, the first in different industries, the second market concentration of the market value (the proportion of the market value of the market), we can find that at present except for the concentration of the semiconductor industry in China and the United States closer to outside the concentration of the remaining industries across the two are more concentrated .
3, Sino-US valuation gap narrowed, A-share valuation of some technology companies began to appear attractive
This section mainly focuses on the comparison of the valuation of technology industry between China and the United States. We adopted a stratified comparison method to compare the PE (TTM), PE (2018) and PEG of Longsheng, Longshang and non-leading companies respectively The conclusion is that after the adjustment of the valuation level of China's science and technology enterprises is moving closer to the United States, although it is still higher than the United States at present, the hardware and media industries are already close to the United States, and the valuations of a number of companies in various industries are similar to those in the United States Close, attractive valuation began to show.
We use GEM to represent A-share growth companies and NASDAQ 100 to represent US stocks and technology companies. Comparing the P / E ratios of the two major indices since 2010, we can find:
From the end of 2014 to mid-2015, as the market style switched from blue chip to growth stocks in the market, the valuation of the GEM all strengthened strongly. With the advent of the stock market crash later, the GEM opened the mode of valuation adjustment. Growth gap between the valuation of enterprises has also further narrowed to the latest closing day, the GEM refers to the overall PE was 38.72 times the NASDAQ 100 overall PE was 31.41 times the two are very close.
Further, compare the end of 2012, the current PE valuation and the market for the 2018 forecast of PE in various industries.
From the trend point of view, in addition to the three sectors of the United States stocks semiconductor industry, the valuation has dropped significantly, the rest of the industry basically follow the 'US stocks PE gradually upgrade, A shares PE gradually decline' so that we compare the A shares, the United States 2018 PE forecast in the previous years, after the two markets have been the existence of the PE gap has been basically eliminated.If the 2018 PE forecast the gap between the sort, the relative valuation of A shares relative to the United States from bad to bad in descending order of: Semiconductor (A (24.21, 24.21, US: 17.03)> Technology Hardware & Equipment (A shares 21.96 times, US stocks 18.15 times)> Media (A shares 19.56 times, US stocks 18.81 times)> Software and services (A shares 25.03 times, US stocks 27.47 times).
The valuation relationship between the first and second companies in China and the United States is basically the same as that in the industry as a whole. We compare the differences between the three valuation indexes of Longzhong Company and Longji Company respectively and find that with the passage of time, The difference between the valuation of the company also showed a narrowing trend.
Finally, from the point of view of PEG, the valuation of Chinese technology companies is even cheaper than that of the United States, which is expected to grow significantly in the future due to the relatively small size and low penetration rate of Chinese technology companies, PE valuation has gradually moved closer to the US stock market. Therefore, from the point of view of PEG, most of the A-share companies in the technology industry in China, apart from the media, have a lower valuation than the United States, either in the industry as a whole or as leading companies (Long Shou and Long II).
4, China and the United States comparative advantage of science and technology industry
Finally, we hope that through a comparative study of leading companies to explore the respective comparative advantages of the science and technology industries in China and the United States and to look for competitive sectors in the Chinese science and technology industry, we believe that leading public listed companies often represent the most competitive enterprises in related industries, Therefore, we compare the respective leading Chinese and US listed companies.
Semiconductor: Differences in competitive advantage, valuation of a small number of companies with the United States
We cited the companies with a market capitalization of TOP13 in the United States and the related market capitalization of the United States at more than 18 billion U.S. dollars. The market capitalization of the Chinese companies was below 15 billion U.S. dollars, and the company's volume varied greatly.
From the valuation point of view, the United States in 2018 PE most of the less than 20 times, a small number of leading companies valuation is relatively high, such as NVIDIA to more than 50 times the majority of Chinese companies in about 30 times, there are some companies in more than 20 Times the value of the semiconductor industry in China's large market value of some companies have been with the United States valuation, or close to the United States, already has some attractive.
From the subdivision of the leading companies in the field, the United States leading the main chip design, semiconductor materials and equipment, including the world-renowned Intel, NVIDIA, Broadcom, Qualcomm and so on.
The Chinese leader is mainly concentrated in the LED chips, solar (4.650, -0.31, -6.25%) silicon, chip manufacturing and packaging, a small number of smaller design companies. LED chips San'an Optoelectronics, Mu Linsen ( 36.540, -1.84, -4.79%); there are Longji shares of solar silicon, Central shares (8.880, 0.00, 0.00%); chip manufacturing and packaging with SMIC ), Long electric science and technology (17.160, -0.39, -2.22%), etc .; chip design is the top technology (sdc), Silan microblogging (12.510, -1.19, -8.69% .
In comparison, the difference between the competitive edge of China's semiconductor industry and the United States is still quite large, especially in the high value-added chip design, semiconductor materials and equipment. China's competitive advantage is concentrated in the LED and solar energy applications. In the chip manufacturing And packaging, etc. also have a certain degree of competitiveness.
As the state increases its investment in the semiconductor field, its competitiveness in chip design, chip manufacturing and semiconductor equipment will gradually increase in the future, and the growth of the related companies may be concerned.
Technical hardware and equipment: Chinese enterprises are relatively competitive and their valuations will certainly attract
China and the United States leading hardware hardware differences to be smaller, most of the leading companies in the United States in 2018 PE within 20 times, while China's leading companies are mostly within 30 times, of which there are a considerable number of companies valued at 20 times Early, including BOE, Goer shares, UOB shares, Hang Tong Optoelectronics (32.550, -1.02, -3.04%). Hardware China has There are more companies with the basic valuation of US companies move closer, with obvious appeal.
Advantage of the hardware companies from the field of view, the United States has the advantage of establishing a global brand of consumer hardware companies, including Apple, Cisco, Hewlett-Packard, Western Digital and so on; and China's dominant enterprises are concentrated in manufacturing, including ZTE ( 28.450, -1.20, -4.05%), Lenovo Group, Hikvision, BOE and other companies with strong international competitiveness, as well as Goer shares, Sunny Optical, BYD (56.650, -2.86, -4.81%) Electronics Etc. In addition, there are still unlisted companies with strong brands, such as Huawei and Xiaomi, which are rapidly developing in China.
In comparison, the advantage of the leading hardware companies in the United States lies in their strong brands, which are based on the long-established advantages of their related companies and still have strong global competitiveness. The advantages of Chinese hardware enterprises are concentrated on manufacturing capabilities and some The brand influence of enterprises has started to improve.We think that with the consumption upgrade in China's domestic market and the increased investment by related companies, in the future, Chinese hardware enterprises will further enhance their brand influence and reach or even surpass the U.S. in the emerging segments Level.
Software and Services: Valuations and Competitiveness Are Different
The difference between the valuation of software companies in China and the United States is still relatively large, but the difference between the competitiveness of each other is even greater.Made in the United States leading software companies in 2018 PE valuation mostly in 30 times, including Google, Microsoft and FACEBOOK. A small number of companies less than 20 times, such as IBM, Oracle. China Software (31.310, -0.55, -4.64%) leading more than 30 times, of which the largest market capitalization of A shares of IFT more than 100 times 46 times the largest Hong Kong stocks Tencent Of course, there are also a handful of companies that are about 20 times larger, such as China Civil Aviation Information Network, Jinshan Software, Dongshan Software and KaiYing Network (21.350, 0.00, 0.00%).
The United States has an all-round advantage in software and has globally competitive businesses in the fields of operating systems, search, social networking, server, consulting, payment and games. Microsoft, Google, Facebook, IBM, Accenture, PayPal, Blizzard etc. Are very well-known brands. The competitiveness of Chinese software service enterprises is relatively weaker. Most companies only establish certain competitive advantages in certain segments of China, such as IFTEC, Hang Seng Electronics (43.430, -1.20 , -2.69%), Reading Group, etc. The two companies, Tencent and Ali, have already established a huge network and have shown a duopoly pattern in the country and have had initial influence in the international market.
Media: Publishing, Wired valuation is close, film and television competitiveness less than the United States
On the whole, the differences between China and the United States in leading the valuation of the media are relatively small, but mainly reflected in the publishing and cable television.
The valuation of Chinese film companies is still significantly higher than the US counterparts in the United States most of the leading media companies in the United States within 20 times less than 15 times the number of companies are not many Disney and Time Warner and other companies are valued at about 15 times the leading Chinese media companies Including film and television, publishing, cable television, etc., of which film and television valuation 25-30 times, published in 15-20 times, cable TV valuation fluctuations, Pearl of the Orient relatively low, at 15 Times or so.
Publishing, cable TV and other industries are non-tradable goods with relatively few international competitions, and it seems that the valuations of the companies in the two countries are relatively close at present. The related industries in the United States have been fully integrated, the company has a larger market share and the operation is more stable China's related industries are still in a relatively fragmented state and have not yet emerged as influential companies in the country.This is both a challenge and an opportunity for the future integration of China's cable television industry and China Still great.
In the film and television industry, the competitiveness of Chinese enterprises lags far behind that of the United States, and movie studios such as Disney, Time Warner and 21st Century Fox in the United States have a very large global influence and output large-scale U.S. films to the world. , 0.00, 0.00%), while Chinese films (15.240, -1.11, -6.79%) established their competitive advantages across the country with theaters and distributions, but their global competitiveness is still not strong. The impact is relatively small, including Huayi Brothers (9.070, -1.01, -10.02%), Light Media (11.300, -1.26, -10.03%) and other companies have not yet entered the A-share media industry market capitalization 13.
Risk Warning: Related companies in the United States lowered the valuation than expected.