Copper prices rose by more than 30% in 2017, which is not good for air-conditioning products with large copper consumption, but it is good for various copper-based raw material suppliers. In the first ten days, nine listed copper companies released their performance forecasts. Almost all of them are good news.
Jiangxi Copper's announcement not long ago shows that the company expects net profit in 2017 compared with the same period last year will increase 788 million yuan to 1.024 billion yuan, the corresponding increase of 100% -130%. Jiangxi Copper also made it clear Year-on-year increase in the prices of major metal products in 2017, driving the rapid increase of its performance.
At the same time, Tongling Nonferrous is expected to achieve net profit of between 510 million yuan and 580 million yuan in 2017 with an increase of 183% to 222% over the same period of last year. The main reason for the substantial growth in performance is still the increase in copper prices. Tongling Nonferrous Also said that the main product prices year-on-year to promote profitability of the main business to improve.Moreover, the continued rise in copper prices, copper processing costs are also on the rise.
Under the pressure of rising copper prices, there have been a number of price increases over the past year in air-conditioning products, with the last price increase occurring at the end of 2017. Although the price of copper dropped in January, from the perspective of supply and demand in the copper market, In the next two to three years, there will be a sustained tight supply of copper and the associated shortfalls will largely stimulate the copper price to rise again.
Now, after many prices of air-conditioning products, the average price reached a peak in recent years, Orville cloud statistics show that the average retail price of terminal air conditioning over 3800 yuan. Copper prices on the air-conditioning The cost of the product passed out of the pressure is very obvious, later in the form of price increases once again release the upstream cost pressures, the space will face only smaller and smaller.
The survival and development environment of the air-conditioning industry will deteriorate due to the rising price of materials represented by copper. After two consecutive years of explosive growth, the domestic air-conditioner market will still maintain shipments in the first few months of the freezing year 2018 However, the growth rate of terminal retail sales and construction machinery sales is hard to match with the increase in shipment volume, thus bringing the total inventory of domestic air conditioner market to a record high.
Huge inventory further intensified the contradiction between supply and demand, and rising costs of copper prices will make this conflict toward a more dangerous direction.At present domestic air-conditioner market shipments are still growing, the expansion of supply and demand contradictions of the product The price rise space, the factory wants to transfer the cost pressure by way of price hikes in the 2018 market is facing greater obstacles.
From the perspective of the existing market initiatives of various air-conditioning enterprises, adjusting the product structure, implementing efficiency-driven, and concentrating resources on the terminals has become a collective type of activity, which in turn leads to a new level of terminal competition in the peak season of 2018.
The intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand and rising upstream costs make the factory's price strategy into a dilemma. In the overall supply environment is greater than the demand of the overall environment, the terminal level is difficult to accept the continued rise in prices; and in the copper material represented by the price Continued to climb the situation, the business pressure will only be heavier and heavier.
Demand trends during the peak season of this year will be the outcome of all contradictions and pressure solutions, and even the key node for the air conditioning industry to develop in the next few years.However, the development of the domestic air conditioner market has not seen any blowout in three consecutive years Phenomenon either, the domestic market in 2018 peak season to create a new history, in one fell swoop the scale of the market to maintain a high platform; or, air-conditioning industry once again caught in a cyclical de-stocking cycle.
However, judging from the multiple data monitoring companies or institutions on the latter part of the market, the trend of domestic air-conditioner market in 2018 is not optimistic. The possible upward trend of copper price will make the air-conditioning industry worse.
