 Zhou Qiren, Professor, National Institute of Development, Peking University
My speech is entitled 'Make a more positive response to potential demand' .This topic is part of what we are doing in Foshan enterprises today, my opinion is that if more companies do the same, the Foshan manufacturing industry will certainly have bright future.
1, the company will inevitably encounter the 'cost curse' problem
Just now Qi Bin talked about RUST-BELT (Note: The rust zone refers to the old industrial zone where the United States and other countries have fallen into economic hardship) and put a map of the United States. The darker the color, the more rusty the place is . When I was on a visit to Columbia University, I was only a place close to New York City. In fact, it was once the largest industrialized place in the United States and a very good landscape. How could this be the case? What justified us? After the industrialized countries think? US 'rust zone' schematic This inside contains a certain economic logic, this logic is the cost curve of our daily dealings. Our economic activity is to Bentley, there is no money-free things, all costs down will rise, down to the best point It is bound to rise at the margin, without exception, to one person, one family, one region and one country. It is very easy to understand why the cost will drop first because we are doing a thing is not familiar with, the scale did not meet the standards, a production line to make a pair of shoes, the cost of these shoes is of course high, and then more and more The larger the more familiar the worker is, the more one million pairs of shoes are produced per production line so that the cost can be diluted. Why do the costs come up? I think the second production line, 2000000 pairs of shoes, this management ability, coordination will have problems, 2000000 pairs of shoes to hire more workers, the profit is very good, you are bright, Competitors in the dark, digging your people, learn your mode of production.So economic activities to go out, the cost will certainly rise. I admire Ren Zhengfei, his best is his philosophy, he said that all small and medium enterprises will eventually die, we are trying to make it a late death, to die. All material will eventually disintegrate, unless there is hedging into the things, the cost of economic activity to pay, the cost of the line down, when the decline is very happy, triumph, but the rise will become a challenge when numerous businesses reduce competition Costs, countless businesses in the fight against rising costs, who control costs a little better, who is likely to appear. As early as before the Industrial Revolution, the steel from Japan and South Korea hit the United States, and the earliest pillar industry turned into a "drop-and-rise" situation before the "cost curse." How could this be dealt with? At least slower than competitors, business management is the ultimate control cost. GE CEOs, then business school dean, said 'cost leadership is either out of the ordinary' and the large amount is the cost leadership and the real difference of great difficulty. To do the same at a lower cost, the cost goes down a little more, goes back a little slower, at least a little slower than the competition. The best way to deal with the 'cost curse' is to produce the greatest value at the same price. You can not produce the same thing in the same way, because you can not afford the 'cost curse' Things, and this thing will fall on the bottom right of the original cost line, this line can not push one more to the right, the tangential line is a continuous decline in long-term cost curve, which is also the business of winning. 2, excellent entrepreneurs know how to develop potential needs
Why Innovation Is Important, It Is Impossible to Depend on Decades Still Can Be Safe and Well, Because The World Is Changing All The Supply of Essential Factors Is Changing And The Market Is Changing In The Other Way If We Can not Make Change And There Is No Way To Solve Problems Economist Schumpeter said it is always necessary to introduce new products or to upgrade the quality of existing products. New production methods, new markets, new sources of raw materials and semi-finished products, new economic organizations should be established. But did not tell us what kind of new technology to introduce, what kind of new product, we are in information, technology in all aspects of the extremely rapid development of the era, how to choose? Every entrepreneur here we did not openly said not to innovate, the problem Is innovation just new? New technology will be commercially successful? The new material will make our cost curve resist the curse? If we are determined to innovate, how to innovate? What kind of things take our innovation forward? I talk about the concept of potential demand, because we have so many years of rapid growth, obviously can not meet the demand can not see what is the potential demand ? For example, a shaver was invented in Europe, is one, can be folded, of course, is very expensive, because it is one, to others to you scraping, can not scratch. The industrial revolution in the United States characterized the turning of the European minority consumer goods into mass consumer goods. How did this knife become a mass consumer product when the price was $ 5? How much was the salary at that time? For the salaried people, the income characteristics There are incomes for one week, but you can not spend a lot of money at one time. If you make the European knife to the United States as it is, you will have no customers. Later, Mr. Jenury invented the disposable bottle cap technology and introduced it to the food industry. He introduced the one-time concept to the knife. The blade was disposable and replaced once, because of the one-time cost, so the manufacturing cost was very much Low, buy a knife, buy a blade a week, the original scratch can not afford to face people can scratch their own, at this time I did not know why the United States had so many bearded, because they can not afford to scratch the face.With so many blue-collar, The market is big. Knife and blade pricing guidelines are not the same, the knife zero profit, you bought me a knife, every week I will buy my blade, although the blade price cheap, but high gross margin, penny products sell five cents. Later, this technology used in the automotive industry, the vehicle is very cheap, expensive parts, you bought my car, to change my tires, accessories, and later it became a lot of businesses to play a new market tricks. We want to know what is the customer? The person who buys me is called the customer, but many people do not buy my stuff, but use this stuff, they are the user, the user may not be able to afford it due to certain restrictions. Excellent entrepreneurs will always pondering this matter, will develop the potential demand, the potential users into customers.American high-end razor there are 60% of the market, do business innovation, to honor the cost, put the user in front Come, to become an entrepreneur day and night thinking, to pondering the object. 3, from the Foshan case to see how to tap the potential demand
Here we look at the concept of customers, users, he can not afford, but he is potentially to use, what we call the new technology is to solve the problem, not for new and new, new and new can not hold new What is the best, will be lost. From a market perspective, Foshan entrepreneurs are very welcome. This is Foshan's experience. Lee Schindler is a steel business company, how will become a robot company? I was curious, its original workshop without a robot, and now has become a leader in many robots. It does stainless steel, had a lot of customers, can process a variety of stainless steel, which is a big industry in Foshan in the stainless steel processing, if we do not close to it, do not know the dust and the pollution on site so serious.Workshop workers All are black, talk to you, the teeth are white. With such changes in the labor market in China, demographic dividends have not been able to attract such workers. Lee Schindler went to Europe to see what kind of opportunities, the beginning of a Italian home to IPO, that can come in, first to sell robots, but Europeans do not understand Chinese customers, their contract can not stand the Chinese way. For example, the Italian company said you do not know how to use, I find a specialist to guide you, an hour 50 euros. This charge Huawei is acceptable, a few decades ago, an expert asked 70 US dollars an hour, Ren Zhengfei pay, but most small Business does not have this strength. Later, Lee Schindler said that I do not accept the client's money and give it to you. It suddenly became the leader of the robot company and made a huge contribution to the manufacturing industry in Foshan. It is impossible to increase the national income by tens of times, But also make people face black and white teeth, the 'cost curse' will make us all industries or late or early move in. How to solve this problem, then we must meet the needs of users derived. Excellent entrepreneurs how to treat customers and users, not my thing but also as my business, as long as your business as my business, it may be transformed into their customers. Lee Schindler as a business model to promote and found that not only the use of stainless steel plant requires robots, the entire Foshan industrial restructuring need robots, but we need robots are China's indigenous manufacturing needs robots, with Europe and the United States produced in large quantities The robot is not necessarily immediately right, the middle need to convert, this conversion is the demand. You can also say that Rexrind did not build a robot, not from 0 to 1, but from the economic point of view, they are worth learning is that it also cares about the things that were not my own, and then developed a new opportunity to . We look at a case, a stove, a pot, a hood, these are common kitchen utensils, but we have a team in Foshan, such a set of kitchen utensils to organize a team to visit 10 cities in 2000 to 30 cities People, made more than 10,000 questionnaires, in-depth each household, making a half an hour video, concerned about the preparation from cooking to serving the entire process of the table.
They one by one analysis found that the products on the market everywhere, there are many do not meet the needs of users, Europe and the United States hood is divided into five stalls, the stove in the ignition, you think there is anything here? Analysis found that the problem is big, our housewife put forward that the fire is large and small, Chinese cooking, the change of fire is an art, cook an average of 27 times to bend down, we bend used to not think it is a problem, that is Exercise, but the team thinks this is a 'pain point'. The team conducted an action analysis of the kitchen, improved the pot, added a Bluetooth device and installed the remote control on the pot, called East McKinley, an industrial design firm. When I arrived at this company, I changed my mind about industrial design. They not only made the appearance of products but also made marketing conferences. Instead, they went deep into the products and went deep into the process of products, making work, using process and consuming process. A process should be designed, we must use the rational concept to re-study how to make consumers feel more comfortable and convenient, and this is a potential demand. On the surface, the demand is stove, pan, hood, but from the potential demand to analyze, not the case. The company is specialized in industrial design, a large number of customers, design director and design director of many companies, deep into the production line.He said that Foshan's industrial design with Shenzhen, Shanghai is not the same, not so tall, but deep into Inside the industrial process, I think this is a baby. Where is the baby? Now talk about pain points, the pain point is that he does not feel pain, you feel pain for him, he is your potential customers. This example is consistent with the example of the United States, so the best of world experience is clear. Today, several guests talked about the concept of the Internet of Things, a very trendy one, popular around the world. How did this happen? Procter & Gamble how to sell the lipstick? On the shelves for consumers to pick the night to know how much to sell red, how much to sell purple. After statistical analysis will know that the most popular lipstick, 10 o'clock sold out, the store did not know, the factory did not know how do you respond to the needs of sensitive? Later, he felt that this is the user does not feel the pain of pain points, he used wireless radio technology, selling a lipstick has a signal that can be integrated into the background, so that information capture is very timely, the concept of generalization, it becomes All things connected. He is the head of self-identification technology lab and professor at MIT. What he did is something that all SMEs, salespeople, engineers and production workshops are likely to find. So many of the power to solve difficult problems are around us. In our company, the question is whether you can dig it out. How does Haitian meet the demand? It turns the traditional craft into a modernized assembly line, which used to be a large-scale and standard-quality pipeline by means of art, art and emotion.
The article is over here? No, because users have potential needs. Mixed flavors, ups and downs, and later into the fresh. I initially thought I was an adjective, and later came to Japan only to find that they feel fresh, what can be To meet the fresh? Haitian taste a very fresh 1 billion in sales, here a key indicator, the content of amino acid nitrogen is 1.2g / 100ml. Poor time to eat very salty, because they can not afford to eat vegetables, so the traditional evaluation of the food is not under the rice, the more salty the rice just fine, but high income to eat light, so salty to go down. I am very inspired to visit Haitian, they have an equation, the taste buds through what reaction, the formation of fresh in the brain .This demand will certainly continue to grow.So Haitian taste of experience, to meet the increasing needs of users in the rapid growth of income The consumer group, this demand is far from being met. Why is the 'fresh' hope, this is a technology seen in the United States, Impossible Foods, with tofu protein meat, commonly known as artificial meat, many consumers do not necessarily vegetarian by faith, how to make vegetarian good nutrition, good nutrition of plant protein, Color and flavor, taste is better. Now that we have a well-established hamburger, I tried one last year, the taste is no different from meat, and there is hemoglobin in it. After the chemical action of plant protein, color and fragrance can be the same as animal protein. The founder of Flying Fish is not very young, but the hardships that I have heard are few and I started to do industrial design. However, when the client did not have the money to pay for the design fee, he used the industrial products to pay off the debt and gave him a bunch of products.
Fortunately, they are relatively young, a bit of knowledge of the Internet, but also to catch up with the Singles Day Taobao, two days put the debt products sold out, and then they told the debtor, give a little goods, the debtor said two days selling is impossible, I A year did not sell so much, say no, to sell yourself.And then flying fish these young people were forced out of a way - do electricity providers. Later, the team started to study potential customers who think that if it is a product produced by a large enterprise or a product with too narrow a market, it is not worth the effort to do it, but rather to make a product with a certain market share. Pick to pick, they pick the humidifier used in the north.Study the humidifier, the blackboard can list a lot of pain points, maybe consumers are accustomed to feel pain.For example, to turn over to add water, add water and turn over , But also more ugly. The Flying Fish team has no factories, but allows so many factories in the PRD to produce such humidifiers as they designed to add water from above and white-collar workers who are specifically designed to work. Flying fish is now 7 billion, but customers are not its customers before, and its practice has proved that as long as the market who intend to study the potential demand of users, it is possible to deal with 'cost curse'. So flying fish electricity supplier to make a good product , The original is not their own customers into their own customers. Liansu is the village to run up the business, so the name has 'Lian' word Lian Plastic is the first to do plastic, is a plastic tube set, the pipe can be used everywhere in the plastic pipe, plastic gradually open up scenarios, From dwellings to municipal pipelines to underground pipelines, all the pipework can not be done without them.
Fish farming in the shallow sea is neither good nor satisfactory, but shallow sea cages can not reach the deep sea, so the chances for Liansu to come are equal. The same tube can extend in many directions and now includes pipes under the floating island , Israel sprinkler products in the application, are concerned about the extent of the League. Israel's sprinkler irrigation, the number of a product sold, how many circles around the globe, everywhere in Xinjiang, water is good, but there is no water in Xinjiang, it is because the irrigation technology behind these are pipe articles, Can be developed layer by layer. Also tell a story, is fine art metal processing Co., Ltd., which is a listed company, I admire the company's CEOs. He belongs to the Pearl River Delta that batch of not high but highly educated entrepreneurs, Knowledge, doing anything can be accomplished, one of his ideas is 'no improvement'.
He needed a copper tube for his home appliances, and he took the lead in R & D on copper processing.He showed me a part that is a composite of aluminum and copper for use in air conditioners, which has the benefit of lower cost, But there is no way to recycling, because in the recovery process, the need to cut the product, aluminum to aluminum, copper to copper recovery. Jingyi metal through innovative research and development, to replace all copper products previously synthesized, so that the parts can be recycled, re-use, in line with environmental requirements. Jingyi metal each time to develop new products to use new equipment, but the manufacturer can not meet, fine art metal on their own research and development equipment.This is not the end, they also own R & D and production of new equipment sold to rivals, selling To other copper enterprises. I have asked the company CEOs, I said you sell to the opponent, would not it be in terms of productivity and cost to compete with you, would not it be more difficult for you? Their answer is that I have to do this because of the opponent to catch up , I can go further, and we are very confident of ourselves, we can always study new products and new equipment. So, now fine arts metal has two hands, brass sell well, copper equipment also sold well.Jingyi metal is still not a big company in Shunde, but to communicate with them is very interesting . We are anti-adversary, but the fine arts metal is the opponent as customers, customers as their potential customers, so in business activities, they will always have a higher realm.This also shows that, as long as the intention to study And pondering, it will not be beaten by the cost curve. Lastly, when it comes to beauty, I visited Fang Zong (方洪波) two years ago. What impressed me most is not how beautiful the United States has done today but has become a business card for the country's industry. What matters is how it comes from.
The most important experience of the United States is that after taking over the party, the first hand took the initiative to return 67,000 mu of funds as a research and development fund. The second is to take the initiative to give some customers to others and others can make products, Large companies are also squeezed in what to do, take the initiative to 100 below the low technical content of the product stopped. This thing is not easy, a production line is a team, some jobs, some income, some status.He readjusted, do not close, the fist is not beat out. There are some industries in the Pearl River Delta, I give an adjective is a tasteless, do not have much income again, by inertia at the domination .This thing to learn the United States, not worth doing things off, so as to do new interesting things. Cantonese is called a chicken dead a crowing, a chicken is not dead, a chicken is not heard .You want to make a more competitive chicken, the original chicken to let it stop, in this regard, dragging the water will be Hinder the progress of China's manufacturing industry. 4, entrepreneurs must stick to the innovation chain
Irreplaceable position In order to meet potential needs, entrepreneurs must pay great attention to the needs, customers, users, potential users and potential customers at the head of the enterprise. On the other hand, your team should respond sensitively to such potential needs. This opinion is not my opinion, and I can not say anything like this, is the CEO of Clarion Films. "When you find a demand, you do it, but which one is the first to mature, there is no way to advance You know, wait until the signs together, your ability to respond enough? Many of our organization now is very lagging behind. Some entrepreneurs are inventors, but most of them are not, what is the technology in the search market for entrepreneurs, and for whom to search? Search for potential customers. New technologies to solve problems, new and new just right. Too new is also a disaster. If there is no existing technology, we must rely on the organization to meet the potential demand for research and development, companies sometimes able to seize this demand point, it is a lot of tall, the capital of the agency but can not do, and then to pay attention to what New application At the next level, we are interested in the progress of science. We do not necessarily understand it, but beware, because one of these changes will help us to catch the potential demand. However, we must stick to the entrepreneurs in all aspects of their own because innovation is a long chain of scientists, geniuses, technocrats, hackers, creators and other roles, but can not do without entrepreneurs. If not Entrepreneur, dazzling technology can not eventually become a product, it is not economic activities, but only a human intelligence show. We now have this phenomenon, dazzling things that make us upset, making us very anxious.Our Shunde entrepreneur decades of housekeeping skills is to meet customer requirements, is nothing more than thirty years ago, customer needs Obviously, there is a serious shortage of supply, so we dare to be the best in the world and dare to respond to obvious needs. We are up. What is the new situation today? Clear demand has been met, potential demand is constantly arising, there will always be an irreplaceable role of entrepreneurs. 5, the United States experience: how to 'rust band' into a 'brain band'?
Finally, let me talk about the U.S. strategy to deal with the 'rust belt'. The truly noteworthy response in the United States is to turn 'rust belt' into a 'brain band' and brainpower to drive the U.S. industry to a higher level. The new productivity in the United States is all about this layout in space. Thousands of companies, Department of Defense orders, local governments, all kinds of needs, finance, laws, designs, and ideas come together to compare with those found in ivory towers Frequency interaction, the more quickly these ideas, cognitive rules, causal link into technology, products, markets, which is the United States really noteworthy play. Finally, to tell a story about the United States, I was touched when I visited the United States. It was two blind people eating an electronic popsicle. A company in the United States uses scientists' findings on vision studies that people's eyes are a channel. The real imaging is in the brain. Millions of people have broken eyes, their brains are not bad. When they find another channel, they can see the world, that's it. A principle. Finally, the tongue under the test the most sensitive, made of electronic popsicles, containing, 3D images through the two cameras into one, you can see the world. This product is already the second or third generation, the drug regulatory authorities in China and the United States have approved the listing, Beijing's production base has landed in less than a year can be mass-produced blind schools in Beijing have been tested, they The first time I saw the color, I saw theatrical performances. What does this mean? This is not a potential need. Instead of finding solutions from off-the-shelf technologies, we can find new technical solutions from the principles that we should pay special attention to.
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