Event 2: Sumco, the world's second-largest silicon wafer factory, predicted at the end of 2017 that the price of 12-inch silicon wafers is expected to further increase by about 20% in 2018 (Q4 price will be over 40% higher than Q4 in 2016) and the forecast 2019 will also continue to rise.
Investment points
Silicon wafer supply in short supply to enter the cycle of price increases, the industry into the volume and price rise of the high degree of prosperity With the rise of AI chips, 5G chips, automotive electronics, Internet of things and other downstream, the global semiconductor industry back to the business climate. NAND expansion, the expansion of downstream applications, the global expansion of the wafer fab and other factors make the basic material silicon in dilemma, silicon prices continued to rise.According to Nikkei, due to tight supply and demand, in 2017 the silicon wafer prices Representing a 20% increase from the end of 2016. SUMCO estimates that the price of 12-inch silicon wafers will further rise by about 20% in 2018 (over 40% in 2018Q4) over 2016Q4 and will continue to pick up in 2019. In our opinion, With the expansion of chip applications, silicon wafer in short supply, the semiconductor industry into the high boom period to determine.
Silicon expansion cycle is long, the supply of flexible production capacity
Global oligopolies in the mainstream semiconductor silicon market are now formed, accounting for 92% of global sales of the top five semiconductor wafer makers in Japan, Taiwan, Germany and South Korea in 2016. However, the top five wafer fabs have now explicitly announced expansion 12 Inch silicon wafer silicon wafer plant only Japan SUMCO: SUMCO monthly output of 110,000 wafer production capacity to 2019 to be opened.
According to the latest expansion plan announced by SUMCO in August, the average investment for every 100,000 pieces of monthly production capacity will be about 2.4 billion yuan, from construction to production for 2-3 years, and the expansion cycle and the supply of production capacity will be weak. It is generally expected that the demand for 12-inch silicon wafers will continue to grow in 2018 and the slowdown in capacity growth will further widen the gap between supply and demand, and we expect wafer out-of-stock in the next few years will be the norm and will continue to widen as demand continues to grow .
Large domestic demand gap, the peak investment has not yet come.
In the global silicon supply and demand gap continues to expand circumstances, in order to ensure that the supply of silicon in 2018, Semiconductor Manufacturing Company to take pre-paid deposit to ensure the supply of next year, the price increases quarterly. SUMCO from May 2017 Has decided to cut off the mainland NOR Flash Factory Wuhan Xinxin silicon orders, giving priority to TSMC, Intel and other manufacturers to accelerate the continent to make the semiconductor shortage of silicon.However, the current domestic demand for mainstream 300mm wafer about 500,000 pieces / month, almost completely dependent on imports; demand will reach 2 million pieces / month by 2020, with a gap of about 1.7 million pieces / month. Such a supply-demand and oligopolistic silicon market will highlight the contradiction between supply and demand Forcing the localization of silicon.Construction of a large silicon project on China's IC industry is the upstream (raw material side) of the self-control.At present, at least nine silicon projects, with a total investment scale of over 52 billion yuan , Is planning 12-inch silicon wafer production capacity has reached 1.2 million in the long run to ease the silicon out of stock problems.According to the investment cycle and the herd effect principle, we expect The future of the large silicon industry in the next few years there will still be new players to join, the investment peak has not yet come, the semiconductor industry and equipment industry is about to enter the high boom cycle!
Demand for silicon equipment space, localization of the core areas have been a breakthrough
Crystal pulling, grinding, polishing and quality control are the key factors to ensure the quality of large silicon wafer products, among which the crystal growth equipment directly determines the production efficiency and quality of subsequent silicon wafer, which is the most important part in the production process of silicon wafer Than 25%.) With the state 02 special equipment manufacturers to support, Jingsheng M & E and other enterprises in the crystal furnace has been achieved.Although the domestic equipment in the world with the advanced technology there is still a gap, but its obvious price , Service and other advantages, the expansion of domestic silicon wafer fab will drive the demand for silicon devices to enhance our silicon demand gap from the perspective of estimates, 2017-2020 domestic silicon device total demand will reach 43.8 billion, CAGR 50 %.