The intellectual stuff 140th internal reference pointed out that China's artificial intelligence industry faces three big mountains: the data environment, talent shortage and hardware short board, among them, the so-called hardware short board mainly refers to the integrated circuit, or the semiconductor industry.
Semiconductor is called the pearl of national industry, that is, the "heart" of the information industry, with high technical threshold and large equipment capital needs. It is a pain point for the mainland's technology industry. From the 12th Five-Year Plan to the 13th Five-Year Plan, Clearly classified as China's key development industries.Policy capital ('big fund' / national IC industry investment fund, the first phase of fund-raising 138.72 billion yuan) double benefit, the local semiconductor industry accelerated, coupled with the wave of new computing architecture Promote, China's semiconductor industry corner overtaking opportunities.
In this issue of Smart Internal Reference, we recommend research from the semiconductor industry of GF Securities. Based on the market observation of Chi East West, we analyze demand-side new applications, inventory industry patterns and opportunities in China based on 2017 global semiconductor market (not considering Taiwan).
The following is a list of the dry stuffs for smart palette:
2017: The global semiconductor market is on the rise
According to WSTS's forecasts, the semiconductor industry will grow 20.6% in 2017, reaching a new six-year high of over 408 billion U.S. dollars. Meanwhile, WSTS expects global semiconductor industry sales to grow 7% from 2017 to 4,373 in 2018 One hundred million U.S. dollars.
According to the current global production capacity of major semiconductor suppliers planning, the next three years, the supply of silicon wafers will become the norm.
▲ global semiconductor revenue growth (March moving average, as of 2017-10)
▲ global semiconductor sales and growth
The distribution of the semiconductor market from the point of view, the Asia-Pacific is the main market, Japan's market sales of 36.35 billion US dollars, other regions 248.734 billion US dollars, together accounting for 73.2% share; North American (US) market sales of 86.458 billion US dollars, accounting for 21.2% Of the world's total, ranking the first in the world. In Europe, the value of the region is 38.048 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 9.3% of the total.
▲ global semiconductor sales and growth (by region)
The large-scale global semiconductor industry leaps and bounds, on the one hand due to strong demand for memory chips, product prices have risen sharply; the other hand, new applications such as networking, automotive electronics, AI and other new markets to boost downstream demand.
2017 memory market sales of 122.918 billion US dollars, for the first time beyond the history of the largest proportion of logic circuit (101.413 billion USdollars), come from the forefront of growth, according to Gartner statistics, 2017H1 memory chip sales reached 58.5 billion US dollars, An increase of 65%. Excluding the impact of memory chips, global semiconductor 2017H1 sales reached 123.8 billion US dollars, a 4% increase.
According to Gartner statistics, automotive electronics and industrial electronics fastest growth in the past few years, with the rapid development of smart cars, VR / AR, Internet of Things and other fields, the rapid development of the past three years Growth rates were 9.5% and 8.5% respectively.
▲ strong demand for memory chips to promote the semiconductor market soaring
Enthusiasm of the market to promote the semiconductor industry's capital expenditures.
According to IC Insights, 2017H1 global semiconductor industry capital expenditures amounted to 42.5 billion US dollars, up 48% over the same period in 2016. Samsung Electronics expects CAPEX in 2017 amounted to 26 billion US dollars, of which 14.0 billion for 3D Nand, 7 billion US dollars In DRAM, 5 billion US dollars for logic IC manufacturing process, a total of more than 200% increase over 2016.
▲ Supply end The global semiconductor capital expenditures continued to grow
2018: Two new impetus
After the era of the smart phone, on the one hand, mobile innovations continue to boost the demand for semiconductors in the stock market; on the other hand, automotive electronics, artificial intelligence, and the Internet of Things are moving closer and closer, driving the growth of the industry. Big new growth in the semiconductor market.
Mine chip: the domestic industry to benefit from depth
▲ Bitcoin Price and Money Change since 2017
Bitcoin prices rose as high as 1204% in 2017 from the beginning of 967.6 dollars to the end of the year with 12,618.55 U.S. dollars, up by 1884% during the year.
Rising prices have attracted significant investment in the upstream bitcoin mining industry, with bitcoin total network computing (operations per second) up from 2.4Eh / s 14 to 14Eh / s in 2017 (an increase of 476% on average per month 15.7%). Moreover, the upward trend in the calculation of power did not slow down with the price fluctuations. It has risen to 19Eh / s on January 23 this year and the increase in this month has exceeded 35%.
▲ In 2017, the proportion of each mine out of the block
At present, almost all mining of bitcoin adopts the pool mode. According to BTC.com's bitcoin share of bitcoin, only 2% of the bitouts are contributed by unknown sources and the remaining 98% Block volume by the major mining ponds.
Concentration in the mining pool market increased in 2017 with the share of the top ten largest mining mines rising to 90% of the total from the beginning of the year, while eight of the top ten came from China, which together accounted for the entire market Eight of the ten come from China, accounting for 71% of the total market.
▲ ASIC mining machine structure diagram
ASICs (application-specific chips) became the darling of mining machines because of their simplicity of design, low cost, and great power. The first ASIC miner was delivered for the first time in January 2013. ASIC miner machines are relatively simple to construct and generally consist of a single control The board consists of 2 to 3 boards, the core of which is the ASIC arranged on the board, which runs only a specific algorithm.
▲ mainstream GPU and ASIC chip comparison
With its low cost and tens of thousands of GPU power calculations, ASIC mines have replaced almost all of the computing power in bitcoin and have replaced almost all GPU mines in the bitcoin arena, which is currently only being used Mining algorithms more complicated currency (such as ether).
▲ The three major domestic mining machine manufacturers main products
Mining industry in China, a high degree of concentration for the growth of domestic mining machine manufacturers provided the favorable conditions.Currently, the major domestic miners have bit mainland China, Jia Nan Yunzhi and billion state shares.The three companies have their own ASIC chip design, at present Mining machine manufacturers mainly by enhancing the chip manufacturing process, improve the chip count and increase the number of chips to enhance the performance of mining machines.
Analysts believe that in 2017 bit mainland China sales of 14.3 billion yuan, second only to Hass as the second largest IC design company in 2017. Bit mainland suppliers of foundry for TSMC, IC packaging and testing of the main to ASE, Long Technology, Tong Fu Microelectronics and China Science and Technology, the substrate mainly by Taiwan's constant power, Zhuhai Vietnam supply.
Taking into account the bit mainland chips Bumping + FC process package, so the domestic Bumping + FC technology, IC packaging and testing companies are expected to benefit from the rapid growth of mining chip investment in 2018.
Automotive Electronics: billions of dollars market
▲ automotive semiconductors in the car body applications
According to market research firm Gartner estimates, in 2013 the global automotive semiconductor market has reached 26.2 billion US dollars, and showed an upward trend to accelerate.
Nowadays, automobile has become the carrier of new electronic technology. Semiconductor has been applied more and more in the automobile. The carrying capacity has become a measure of the electronic and intellectualization of the automobile. It is important for the technological evolution of the automobile significance.
Automotive semi-conductor classification
On the one hand, ADAS penetration increase driven by the demand for bicycle carrying chips; the other hand, electric vehicles and automotive semiconductors have a natural close relationship, sophisticated electronic control and battery management are inseparable from the chip application.An analysis pointed out that electric vehicles The cost of a single discrete device car has reached 2567 yuan (more than 5 times the traditional car usage.) With the heavy volume of electric vehicles in the future growth, will effectively promote the penetration of automotive semiconductors in the automotive field.
▲ Internal combustion engine vehicles, hybrids and pure electric bicycle cycling equipped with semiconductor value comparison
Technologies used in automotive semiconductors include power ICs, IGBTs, CMOSs and the like for applications such as in-car entertainment systems, driver assistance systems, video display systems, television systems, electric motor control, lighting control, electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles Management system and many other car functional modules or devices.
Localization into the acceleration period
▲ China's 2010-2016 IC Import and Export Statistics (Cite East Wealth Network)
China is the largest integrated circuit market in the world and will maintain an average annual growth rate of about 20%. However, chip consumption is heavily dependent on imports (data shows that China's chip demand accounts for 45% of the world's total, but more than 90% of the chips Consumption depends on imports).
In order to make up for this major hardware shortfall in the technology industry and stop the role of hard-working workers, the state started to support the chip industry:
In 2014, China established the Leading Group for Integrated Circuits and the National Integrated Circuit Industry Fund (also known as the Great Fund), which raised a total of 138.72 billion yuan in the first phase of investment. It is estimated that the total investment will exceed 1,000 billion yuan, trying out international mergers and acquisitions and capital market interventions Way investment in China's semiconductor industry chain. The "Made in China 2025" released in 2015 further mentions that the chip self-sufficiency rate in China will reach 40% by 2020 and 50% by 2025 (70% of the MIIT's plan).
▲ Domestic Semiconductor Support Policy (citing Guojin Securities)
Driven by policies and capital, China's domestic wafer production line has entered a climax of development in 2016 with sales of 433.55 billion in the IC industry and 24.1% in the sales of design, manufacturing and packaging and testing industries respectively, 25.1% and 13%.
In 2017, the local semiconductor industry ushered in the capital boom (many listed). Datang Telecom and Qualcomm and other big brothers joined hands to set up Shengzheng Technology Co., Ltd., and the new and old management of domestic leading companies (SMIC, Spreadtrum, Howe and others) ), TSMC top jump purple, bit mainland China trend, AI chip broke Unicorn and other lively things.
Although at present, China has been able to catch up with other developed countries and regions in the field of design and IC packaging and testing, the overall gap in terms of chip manufacturing is large, including equipment and materials, etc. (For example, Etching machine 28nm mass production are struggling when the most advanced technology has reached 7nm level.)
▲ At present, 22 fabs under construction in China
Of the 22 fabs currently under construction in China, 17 are scheduled to be mass-produced by the end of 2017 to 2018 with an additional investment of more than 600 billion yuan.
GF Securities statistics of all domestic 8-inch and 12-inch production line investment data, from the future investment trajectory, 2017-2020 is the peak of investment in the wafer plant.Three years, there will be 20 production lines 12-inch China's 12-inch wafer production capacity will be ahead of Taiwan and South Korea.At the same time, the future domestic new 8-inch wafer production capacity 455,000 / month, compared to the current mass production scale An increase of 65% and an additional investment of 24.7 billion yuan.With the substantial growth of semiconductor capital expenditures, upstream equipment and materials will certainly benefit.
However, policy support, market promotion and capital temptation, coupled with the automotive electronics (intelligent, electric), bit Mining machines, artificial intelligence and other new computing architecture to the domestic design and packaging companies to bring their fists and feet of space, as well as more highly competitive wafer factory construction movement, China is expected to fill the inflection point of information science and technology in the semiconductor industry, a major hardware Short board, stop 'hard work' role to achieve corner overtaking.