Domestic car modified plastics market growth will reach 26%
Modified plastics are better than common plastics in flame retardancy, strength, impact resistance, toughness and other aspects of performance. They are widely used in downstream applications. They are mainly used in the fields of home appliances, automobiles, construction, office equipment and machinery. Among them, household appliances, automobiles Is the largest of its two application areas.At present, the automotive industry has become the fastest growing areas of modified plastics demand due to the steady growth of global automobile production, automobile lightweight makes the amount of bicycle modified plastic increases, it is estimated that, 2018 Annual global market price of automotive plastic is expected to increase from 21.616 billion U.S. dollars in 2012 to 46.112 billion U.S. dollars at a CAGR of 13.46%; consumption is expected to increase from 7.1 million tons in 2012 to 11.3 million tons in 2018, representing an annual growth rate Up to 8.05%.
Exhibit 1: Market Size of Global Automotive Modified Plastics from 2012 to 2018 (Unit: 100 million US Dollars)
Exhibit 2: Consumption of Global Automotive Modified Plastics from 2012 to 2018 (Unit: 10,000 tons)
Domestic car modified plastic growth rate is much higher than the global average.Production growth of domestic vehicles in the past many years are much higher than the global auto output growth, especially now, China is already the world's largest new energy automotive market, Therefore, the demand growth of domestic automotive modified plastics will be higher than the global average and become the fastest growing area downstream of modified plastics. In 2017, a total of 794,000 new-energy vehicles were produced in China Vehicles, combined with an average of 171 kg of modified plastic required per passenger car, the conservative estimate of 136,000 tons of modified plastics required for new energy vehicles in China in 2017.
In June 2018, Shanghai, China, will hold an international automotive material exhibition to actively respond to the national energy-saving and environmental protection policies of light-weight vehicles and to encourage the replacement of new energy sources and to promote the integration and interaction of upstream and downstream automobile materials and components. In order to promote the future of automobiles In April 2017, the "Mid-term and Long-term Development Plan for the Automobile Industry" jointly issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Science and Technology clearly pointed out that "lightweighting" of vehicles can achieve energy saving and emission reduction while bringing Dynamic performance, vehicle control stability and NVH (Noise, Vibration, Vibration Harshness) and other performance improvements is an inevitable trend and an important direction for the development of the automotive industry, and the development of advanced automotive materials such as high performance plastic parts and composite materials has become Which is an important content.With the promotion of new energy vehicles and new trends such as car networking intensified, according to conservative estimates, the next 5 years the domestic automobile modified plastics industry compound annual growth rate will exceed 26%, the single new energy vehicles modified Plastic is expected to exceed 543,000 tons of consumption.
Exhibit 3: Estimation of China's NEV consumption of modified plastics from 2018 to 2023 (Unit: 10,000 tons)
Modified plastic industry will continue to expand the scale
Modified plastics are the material basis for most of the necessities in all aspects of people's life. As people's material life is increasingly enriched, the consumption of materials shows an increasing trend. In terms of the total amount, finished products of the modified plastics industry in our country have been increasing year by year, Growth rate declined in 2016. The industry finished products for the 3836000000 yuan, 6-year compound growth rate of 7.52% .According to estimates, in 2017, China's modified plastic industry finished products about 4124000000 yuan.
Exhibit 4: Chart of the finished products and growth rate of China's modified plastics industry from 2010 to 2017 (Unit: ten thousand yuan,%)
From 2009 to 2016, the demand for modified plastics industry in our country continued to grow, although the growth rate also fluctuated, but the growth rate was relatively higher than the total output of the market.In 2016, the industry achieved sales revenue of 111.298 billion yuan, with a 7-year compound annual growth rate of 13.18 %, Higher than the supply growth of nearly 6 percentage points.It is estimated that in 2017, modified plastic revenue reached 125.937 billion yuan.
Chart 5: Trends of sales revenue and growth rate of China's modified plastics industry in 2009-2017 (Unit: 100 million yuan,%)
At present, the domestic modified plastic industry started late, the market share is low, the domestic plastic modification rate (10%) is still below the international average (20%); the country has more than 3,000 modified plastic manufacturing enterprises, the majority Annual output of less than 3,000 tons, less than 10,000 tons, most of which are generally smaller-scale enterprises, production capacity and ability to ensure the lack of quality, it is difficult to meet the requirements of high-grade cars, low-grade automotive plastics for a low degree of localization. Lightweight and appliance consumption upgrade, the future high growth of modified plastics will be sustained, the development prospects are very broad.Estimated in 2023, the sales volume of modified plastics industry in our country is expected to exceed 262.2 billion yuan.
Exhibit 6: Forecast of sales volume of modified plastics in China from 2018 to 2023 (Unit: 100 million yuan)
Source: Foresight Industry Institute finishing
The above data and analysis are from Prospect Industry Research Institute released "2018-2023 China's modified plastic industry demand and investment forecast analysis report."