Yesterday morning, Trump made his first State of the Union address after he took office.
Despite the fact that a few days ago Davos made the speech, the 80-minute State of the Union address was still beyond the expectations of many people. On the one hand, he rarely mentioned the issue of trade protectionism and Multilateral diplomatic relations refer only to China once. On the other hand, the manuscript completely goes beyond the style of speeches and cites the stories of ordinary people, including veterans, American heroes, and ethnic minorities. Instead of mentioning freedom when they took office, The image of democracy is very different.
What kind of Trump this restraint really wants? What else is there behind this seemingly insignificant State of the Union message?
style
Before we figure out these problems, we must first solve a problem. What is the status quo?
At yesterday's symposium held by the Global Experts Group on Global Thinkts (CCG), CCG invited senior researcher Shou Huisheng, a researcher at the National Institute of Strategy and Research of Tsinghua University, to point out that the State of the Union address is different from the national security strategy report. As a tradition, As a self-proclaimed opportunity for the president, there are few and only minimal commitments in his message.
For example, Gallup conducted a survey once and found that before and after the publication of the message, people's attitude toward the government basically did not change much.
With such a basic understanding, looking at Trump's first State of the Union address, you will find that many things have come to fruition.
For example, the entire State of the Union address is full of traditional "institutionalist" style, especially at the beginning, spent a lot of space about the story of various types of American heroic figure .At first opening, Trump referred to the California fire of the past year , Hurricane Harvey, and the Las Vegas shooting and other incidents, and then praised the courageously dedication of many ordinary people, such as coast guards, MPs, firefighters and other scenes, once sensational.
The reason for doing so is not hard to imagine. It is nothing more than rehabilitating the image of the Republican Party as much as possible so as to obtain as many advantages as possible in the upcoming midterm elections.
As another example, in his speech, Trump changed the image of combativeness in the past and urged the two parties to cooperate on many occasions. "Tonight, I urge everyone to put aside their differences, seek consensus, and unite for the election of our people."
In the view of Diaodailing, an associate professor at the Institute of International Relations at Renmin University of China, this reflects behind the growing "governance chaos" and the polarization of the party in the United States in order to win the unity of the two parties in the country and pointed out that one year after taking office, The parliamentary environment facing Trump is apparently worse than before. "After the Senate Alabama Senate by-election in December last year, the Senate Republican-Democrat seats dropped to 51:49, Republicans only" the smallest majority " This means that it is very hard for the 51 Republicans in the Senate to "redeem" votes on certain issues, and Senate Republicans have the lowest ability to control the agenda.
However, Trump's move apparently did not win the recognition of the entire staff.At the time of Trump's speech, the scene had many occasions of ice and snow: the Republicans have applauded, Democrats apathetic response.
domestic
However, this does not affect the Trump administration's promotion of the 'U.S. First' strategy.
As Trump explained at Davos, 'U.S. priority' is not 'American loneness.' "As a U.S. leader, I will always give priority to the United States, just as other leaders always put Their country is in the first place. 'This time Trump also shouted,' This is our new American moment, there is no better time to realize the American dream. '
How to achieve it? For the Trump administration, tax reform is an important starting point.
As usual, speech at other important occasions, Trump, this time, still regarded his landmark performance - tax reform as an important part of his speech.He spent a lot of time about the economic performance of the United States after the Republican Party took office: Since the election, we have created 2.4 million jobs, of which 200,000 jobs have been added to the manufacturing sector alone. 'After years of stagnation, wage levels have started to rise.' The unemployment rate has hit a new low of 45 years Stock market traded at record highs for a record 8 trillion U.S. dollars ...
Although there is still a debate in the academic community whether there is a necessary link between this achievement and the Trump administration's economic policy, it is undeniable that under the supervision of Trump, the U.S. economy is welcoming the best times since 2010.
In addition, the Democratic Party's traditional proposals such as infrastructure construction, national defense construction and immigration also occupy a considerable space in the State of the Union's essay.
For example, on infrastructure, Trump shouts, raising the $ 1 trillion infrastructure investment proposed at campaign time to $ 1.5 trillion. "The United States is the builder's country, and in just a year we have built it Is not it a shame that the Empire State Building now has a simple road that can take decades to get approval?
In this regard, many experts said that after the successful implementation of the tax reform policy, infrastructure investment may become Trump's primary plan this year, but under the current tax cuts, the US government will be how to deal with financial pressure, which 15,000 Where are the billion dollars coming from, it may still be a problem.
However, on a consistent and strong immigration issue, Trump has shown a difference from past generosity, emphasizing that for those illegal immigrants who were brought into the United States from their parents as long as they meet the requirements of education and work and whose moral qualities are up Secondly, despite the statement that the "chain immigrants" will be terminated, he still spends a considerable amount of time on the protection of immediate family members in the current U.S. immigration policy.
International
Then, is focusing on domestic means but not participating too much in international affairs or holding a gentler attitude towards geopolitical issues?
In the view of Shou Huisheng, people may have misjudged Trump in the past, believing that his anti-globalization slogan means traditionally "isolationist" and letting the United States cut off its ties with other countries Economic and trade exchanges.But whether it was a few days ago in the Davos Forum, or a series of remarks before, all proved that the U.S. first strategy may make it more concerned about the gains and losses of the United States and other countries.
Specific to this State of the Union address, though the part of the message concerning national strategy and geopolitics is relatively small, there is only one reference to China clearly, and the more there is a shadowy one, but the tone is not welcome. Trump emphasized "the wealth that our country once lost. We are now quickly taking it back." The era of economic concession is over ... We look forward to more fair trade relations. '' We will pass the strict implementation of the trade Rules to Protect American Workers and U.S. Intellectual Property '.
In this regard, experts said that compared with the previous "National Security Strategy Report," stubbornly declared to solve the trade inequality with China, as well as an earlier recognition of China's market economy status, China as the exchange rate manipulator, etc., This statement is not named, more so than a general discussion, but the details of the statements are still old ones. "This shows that on the economic and trade issues, the United States prejudices against China may have been deeply rooted and deserve our serious treatment. '
If you read the entire essay carefully and you will find that there is only one place in China that clearly states that China and Russia are important rivals to the United States and that China is a danger The danger.
In the view of Shou Huisheng, 'China can not give unrealistic illusions because of some Trump's moderate remarks. The friction between the United States and other major economies will be the normal for the future. China must have enough psychological expectations And policy plan.
In response, Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hua Chunying also responded yesterday at a regular press conference and expressed the hope that the United States will abandon the outdated concept of Cold War thinking and zero-sum game, correctly view China and its relations with China, act in the same line with China, Mutual respect, focus on cooperation, control differences and safeguard the healthy and stable development of Sino-U.S. Relations.