Silicon is the carrier of solar cells, and the quality of silicon directly determines the conversion efficiency of solar cells, so the incoming silicon needs to be tested.In addition, silicon is one of the most abundant elements in the crust For products such as solar cells destined to enter the mass market, the strength of the reserves is also one of the reasons why silicon is a major source of photovoltaics.
First, the general situation of China's solar wafer industry development
Silicon is the downstream process of polycrystalline silicon, which is different from polycrystalline silicon. The link is capital-intensive and has low technical content. The product technology is related to input equipment and can be divided into monocrystalline silicon and polycrystalline silicon. China is a large producer of silicon wafer, In 2017, I just produced about 18.8 billion pieces of silicon wafer, equivalent to 87.6GW of output, an increase of 39% over the previous year, accounting for about 83% of the global wafer production, of which monocrystalline wafer output is about 6 billion pieces.
Exhibit 1: China and Global Solar Wafer Production in 2011-2017 (Unit: GW)
Second, China's solar wafer industry's main features
1, silicon rod silicon industry technical level and development trend
The core issue of the entire photovoltaic industry is how to reduce costs so that the performance-cost ratio of photovoltaic power generation can be superior to the traditional way of fossil-fuel power generation.More importantly, the future fate of the entire PV industry also depends on the performance-cost ratio of photovoltaic power generation Can quickly drop to a competitive level.Pv industry is facing competitors, not only include traditional fossil fuels, but also include other renewable energy.Crystalline silicon solar cells account for more than 80% of the entire photovoltaic industry, from a technical point of view Speaking, the current cost reduction mainly through two ways: to improve the conversion efficiency of crystalline silicon solar cells and reduce the amount of silicon.
Taking single crystal as an example: In the conversion efficiency, the laboratory efficiency of the single crystal silicon cell can reach 25% (that is, the ratio of the best output power of the monocrystalline silicon cell to the solar radiation power projected onto the surface thereof is 25%). Monocrystalline cell efficiency is the highest among commercial solar cells, both in the laboratory and in volume production. Improving cell efficiency first depends on improving the quality of the monocrystalline silicon, including reducing the oxygen content in the monocrystalline silicon to help improve the cell's conversion efficiency , Which is the trend of monocrystalline silicon.There are two choices to reduce the amount of silicon used: the use of other alternatives or to reduce the thickness of the battery.From the economic point of view, silicon and other alternative materials compared to silicon for the manufacture of solar cells is The most economical .In the case of the silicon wafer to ensure the strength, reducing the thickness of silicon has become a realistic choice to save material.Current mainstream thickness is 200 ± 20 microns, the trend of thinning; the same time, in order to reduce the cost of back-end process, improve After the procedure production capacity, a large trend, the market will transition to 8-inch wafer-based.
2, the industry's business model
At present, there are three kinds of business models of silicon rods and silicon chips: (1) Independent purchasing, production and sales models, silicon rods and silicon wafers are procured for the processing of polycrystalline silicon raw materials and directly sold to downstream solar cells and components manufacturers ; (2) processing model, downstream manufacturers are responsible for providing polysilicon raw materials, silicon rods, silicon processing enterprises in accordance with the requirements of customers and processing fees charged, the adoption of this model of the enterprise requires a strong product processing capacity; 3) Supporting the production mode, the solar cells and components manufacturers to establish their own supporting enterprises to produce silicon rods, silicon wafers, silicon rods produced by the direct internal supply of silicon, into the next cell production processes, to achieve integration. Is that these three models are not exclusive.A silicon rod, silicon companies may also use a variety of business models.
With the intensified competition in the future, the two production and operation modes of specialization and vertical integration will each show their respective competitive advantages. As the solar photovoltaic industry is a capital-intensive industry with many capital-technology-intensive features at various production stages , The whole industry chain production will make the enterprise's resources scattered.With the future level of the industry's profit margins gradually reduced to the level of social average, most enterprises will shift to specialized production, a small number of large financially strong technology group may form a vertical integration The production and management model.
Third, China's solar wafer industry development factors
1, solar silicon industry favorable factors
(1) The energy crisis has forced humankind to find alternative sources of energy
According to the analysis of the world's energy authorities, based on the currently proven reserves of fossil fuels and the rate of exploitation, the global remaining oil recovery period is only 45 years and the remaining domestic recoverable period is 15 years. The remaining recoverable life of natural gas in the world 61 Year, the remaining domestic recoverable years is 30 years; the remaining recoverable years of coal in the world are 230 years, the remaining domestic recoverable years are 81 years; the remaining ubiquitous recoverable years of the world are 71 years and the remaining domestic recoverable years are 50 years. The traditional fossil fuels The limited reserves forced humankind to accelerate the search for alternative renewable energy sources.
China's disposable energy resources reserves far below the world average, the alternative situation of China's renewable energy than the rest of the world to be more severe and urgent solar energy resources not to use less, no adverse impact on the environment, to develop solar energy Photovoltaic industry is an important measure and way to solve the current contradiction between energy supply and demand in our country and adjust energy structure.At the same time, developing solar PV industry is also a strategic choice to deal with climate change and achieve sustainable energy development in the future, so it is of great significance.
(2) The importance of environmental protection and sustainable development
The excessive exploitation and use of fossil fuels have caused huge pollution and destruction to the global environment on which mankind lives. The massive emissions of carbon dioxide have led to the global warming, which in turn has led to the melting of polar glaciers and sea level rise. And car exhaust emissions led to a serious deterioration of air quality and lead to the epidemic of respiratory diseases.Human has been aware of the importance of environmental protection and sustainable development.At the same time, solar energy with its renewable and friendly to the environment A wide range of concerns and applications, governments of all countries take various measures to encourage and develop the solar industry, increase investment in research and development, significantly accelerate the progress of solar photovoltaic technology, the rapid expansion of industrial scale, rising market demand, economic efficiency, Environmental and social benefits are increasingly evident.
(3) government incentives
Due to the limited energy of fossil fuels and the double pressure of environmental protection, renewable energy has gradually become an important part of energy strategic planning of all countries. Photovoltaic power generation industry is an important part of renewable energy in various countries. Since April 2000, Since the Renewable Energy Law, governments of all countries have issued a series of supportive policies to promote the development of the solar photovoltaic industry. These supportive policies have promoted the rapid development of the solar photovoltaic industry in the past few years and will provide good opportunities for the future development of the solar photovoltaic industry. China's government has also promulgated many policies and plans, for example, "Opinions on Accelerating the Implementation of Solar PV Building Applications," "Interim Measures for the Management of Financial Subsidies for the Golden Sun Project," "National Development and Reform Commission on Improving the Solar PV Power Pricing Policy Notice "," 12th Five-Year Plan for Solar Power Development "," 13th Five-Year Plan for Electric Power Development ", etc. These policies and plans have effectively promoted the development of photovoltaic power generation industry in China.
(4) The cost advantage makes the solar cell manufacturing industry shift to mainland China
Due to the increasingly obvious advantages of labor cost and testing and packaging in China, the manufacturing of global solar cell terminal products is also gradually shifting to the domestic market.For the sake of reducing costs, the terminal product manufacturers generally adopt the principle of nearest purchasing and nearest assembly as much as possible From the local procurement of components.Therefore, the migration of downstream manufacturing industry will also be in the midstream silicon wafer industry layout of the wafer has a direct impact.China's solar cell production will inevitably increase the domestic demand for solar silicon rod silicon, which in turn Driving the entire solar silicon wafer industry flourish.
(5) China's development of solar energy resources are superior
China's vast land is rich in solar energy resources. China is located in the northern hemisphere, north-south distance and the distance between east and west are more than 5000 km, two-thirds of the land area of the annual sunshine hours is more than 2200 hours, the total solar radiation More than 5000 MJ per square meter, belonging to areas with good solar energy utilization conditions, and the potential for exploitation and utilization of solar energy resources is very vast. China's abundant silicon resources can provide raw material support for the development of the solar photovoltaic industry. Using the desert and newly added houses The construction area can provide a large amount of marginal land and roof and wall area for the development of solar photovoltaic power plants.
2, solar silicon industry unfavorable factors
(1) Photovoltaic subsidy policy has been phased weaken
Over the past few years, with the progress of technology and the development of industrial scale, the price of photovoltaic solar raw materials has dropped, the conversion rate has been raised, and the service life has been extended. This has led to a substantial drop in the cost of photovoltaic power generation and further cost reduction in the future. However, in the short term, The cost of thermal power in China is about 0.25-0.3 yuan / kWh, while the cost of PV power generation is about 0.7-1.0 yuan / kWh. The cost of photovoltaic power generation in most foreign countries is also higher than the traditional energy costs such as thermal power. Therefore, The development of solar photovoltaic industry is still largely dependent on the support of industrial policies and the sustainability of policies.
The governments of all countries set up the PV subsidy policy to promote the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry and solve the energy crisis in a planned way and to achieve the goal of environmental protection and emission reduction.It is an inevitable trend to reduce subsidies for photovoltaic grid electricity prices because of the following factors: (1) With the development of the photovoltaic industry, As the market scale gradually expands and the technological level continuously innovates, the product cost also continues to decrease. Therefore, the subsidy standard seeks to maintain the moderate profitability of all participating enterprises in the industry, otherwise the industry profitability will gradually increase and cause huge profits. At the same time, Rapid expansion and thus undermine the healthy and orderly development of the industry; (2) subsidy standards to promote the industry survival of the fittest to promote participation of enterprises to further increase product development and cost control in order to achieve industry costs decline, only the cost continues to decline in order to promote the solar photovoltaic industry in the government subsidies Under the enhanced competitiveness and competition with traditional energy to achieve large-scale industrialization and application; ③ reduce the subsidy standards can control the amount of additional installation to achieve orderly construction of photovoltaic power plants and reduce government spending.
In the long run, all countries formulate policies for the solar photovoltaic industry, all of which are aimed at promoting the normal return on investment of all the investors in the industry and promoting long-term sustainable and healthy development of the industry. In the short term, however, changes in subsidy policies in various countries will cause fluctuation in the market installed capacity, And affect the profitability of all enterprises in the photovoltaic industry. Only by constantly improving the technological level and having the ability to control costs can the enterprises achieve sustainable development.
(2) The development of photovoltaic construction is affected by other renewable energies
In addition to solar energy, renewable energy mainly includes wind energy, geothermal energy, hydro energy, geothermal energy and biomass energy, and most countries now regard solar energy and wind energy as the focus of new energy development.Compared with solar energy, the foundation of wind energy industrialization The cost is lower, but the installation is complex, the subsequent maintenance costs are high, and the application environment is high.The selection direction and input of renewable energy in various regions will affect the development of the PV power station project in the region.
Fourth, China's solar monocrystalline silicon market distribution pattern
Benefit from economies of scale and technological progress caused by the cost decline, 'Top Runner' program and other policies tilt, the domestic monocrystalline silicon market share continues to increase in 2014, the domestic single crystal market has just started, the market share of only 5%, 2015 Surging to 15% in 2016, reaching about 27% in 2016 and 36% in the first half of 2017. The trend of monocrystalline substitution has been established. The expansion of monocrystalline capacity has reached a climax. As the demand for monocrystalline silicon continues to rise, the leading silicon enterprises Actively expand production capacity, and polycrystalline line companies are also planning the production of monocrystalline capacity.China's leading single-crystal Longji shares, Central shares will increase production capacity of about 7.5GW and 9GW in 2017, and polycrystalline line Crystal Division, GCL also have GW level Of the expansion, prompting the rapid expansion of single-crystal capacity across the industry, is expected to exceed the polycrystalline production capacity in 2018 (polycrystalline line has matured, no new investment in the ingot expansion) .Focusing on the future, as single crystal with a natural lattice neat Sorting advantages, in the diamond wire thinning, thinning of silicon, high efficiency N-type battery promotion has greater potential.
Chart 2: 2015-2018 China's key monocrystalline silicon production capacity
