In 2017, the retail sales volume of China's color TV market decreased by 6.6% from the same period of previous year, encountering the biggest drop over the same period of last year in the past ten years since 2003. Meanwhile, the weakness of the Internet brand resulted in a rebound in the average price of color TVs, with a total retail sales of 163 billion yuan, An increase of 4.5% .Control estate suffered, the panel experienced the longest price rise cycle and the rapid rise of intelligent alternatives is the main reason for the color TV market challenge last year.
However, the agency expects that with the rise of new consumer trends such as large-size TV sets, the retail sales of China's color TV market in 2018 is expected to exceed 3% YoY while the supply of panels continues to improve with room for cost reduction. The performance of Black Plate is expected to bottom out, It is recommended to pay attention to black investment cycle.
Outlook 1: TV market can increase 3%
Although the overall sales volume in 2017 showed a year-on-year decline, the estimated domestic shipments of the top five color TV sets in China are expected to increase 23% YoY in 2018, an increase of 17% over 2017. Meanwhile, the 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia, Olympic Games and other major sports events, driven by sporting events, the TV market demand is expected to grow.Shenwan Hongyuan said that in 2018 to benefit from the World Cup and other sports events, the overall industry is expected to resume growth, the global industry is expected to overall sales growth of 3 %about.
In terms of specific sales, Orville cloud is expected in 2018 TV market, retail volume will reach 48.98 million units, an increase of 3.1%, the scale of retail sales will reach 159.7 billion yuan, down 2.1%, further deepen the trend of large size , Sales area will reach 34.54 million square meters, an increase of 9.4%.
Outlook 2: The performance of listed companies rose
TCL Group (000100) released its 2017 annual results notice on January 15 and predicted that the company's performance will increase in 2017. It expects to achieve a net profit of RMB3.5bn ~ RMB8bn, an increase of 64% ~ 78% over the same period of last year. Net profit of listed companies 2.6 billion to 2.8 billion yuan, an increase of 62% to 75%.
Konka A on the evening of January 25 released a notice, is expected to 2017 attributable to shareholders of listed companies net profit of 498,000 yuan ~ 508,000 million, earnings per share of 2.0682 yuan to 2.1097 yuan a profit of 95,567,300 yuan a year earlier. In the year, the estimated amount of non-recurring gains and losses of the Company is estimated to be approximately RMB5.0 billion, mainly attributable to the Company's gain from the transfer of 70% equity interest of Shenzhen Kangqiao Overseas Investment Co., Ltd. Shenwan Hongyuan said it expects to see revenue growth of Hisense Electric (600060) in 2018 10% or more.
Status: sales decline in more than a decade
According to the data of Orvite Cloud Network, the domestic color TV retail market experienced severe challenges in 2017, with sales volume of 47.52 million sets, down 6.6% from the same period of previous year. From the year-on-year data for 2003, the decline in 2017 was from 2003, In the past ten years, the sales volume of color television sets in China dropped by the biggest drop compared with the same period of 2007. Although the overall performance of the domestic market was not good, the color TV exports maintained a positive growth with an export volume of 100 million units, an increase of 2.2% over the same period of previous year.
Once very popular brand of Internet TV suffered a serious challenge in 2017, one of the most cited industry concern is that music as a problem in the capital chain, the music television suddenly silence in the market.
Institutional perspective: It is recommended to pay attention to black investment cycle
It is understood that in 2017 there are about 5 high-generation line in the country put into operation or expansion.It is reported that from the fourth quarter of 2017, the black plate sector rising trend is obvious, which Shen Konka (000016) as of December 28, 2017 shares After touching the recent low of 5.7 yuan, gradually rebounding, up nearly 20% .Agencies said that the current panel capacity sufficient, the price into the downlink channel, while the demand side sales rebounded, while 2018 is expected to add 3 high-generation line. Securities said that in 2018 panel production capacity sufficient supply, the panel prices are expected to continue downward, it is recommended to pay attention to black investment cycle.