Biomedical industry: pay attention to drug circulation plate rebound opportunities
Pharmaceutical Network January 30 hearing Ping An Securities on January 30 release biomedical industry research report, the report summarized as follows:
Drug circulation sector is oversold: From the second half of 2017, the market realized that the negative impact of the two-vote system on the circulation industry began to show that the stock circulation in the circulation industry started to go down after experiencing the previous round of triumph. In the pharmaceutical distribution segment, the share price (the arithmetic mean) fell 11% in the past four months and the stock price (the arithmetic mean) dropped 15% in the past eight months.
Quotes appear in the plate differentiation, represented by Heron medicine local circulation enterprise Share prices plunged. Small-cap companies posted an average callback of about 15% in nearly a quarter, with an average callback of about 30% in the past six months. The national circulation enterprises represented by Shanghai Medicines benefited from this year's White Horse stock quotations, and there was no obvious correction in share prices.
Drug circulation plate negative has been done, is expected to usher in stock prices rebound:
There are four provinces that implement the two-vote system by 2016, a total of 11 provinces that implement the two-vote system by the third quarter of 2017 and 21 provinces that implement the two-vote system by the end of 2017. Therefore, in the fourth quarter of 2017, Two-thirds of the provinces in the country have implemented a two-vote system, while other provinces and distributors that have not yet implemented these two provinces have also been adjusted ahead of schedule. Therefore, it can be assumed that by the fourth quarter of 2018, Thereby suppressing the impact of the growth rate of the industry basically eliminated the growth of the industry is expected to pick up.Because the actual adjustment of the distributor will be in advance of the official document provides the implementation of two-vote time, so the industry may be warmer in advance of the third quarter of 2018. Stock market reaction to the real economy is expected, the stock market performance will advance in the real economy, so we think the pharmaceutical circulation sector is expected to rebound this year.
Investment Advice:
Circulation section, recommended Liuzhou Pharmaceutical: According to our profit forecast, net profit attributable to parent company is expected to grow by 26% in 2017, corresponding to EPS of 21.5 and 17.4 times in 2017 and 2018 respectively, and the estimated switching space will be 20% Over the previous year, the Company actively carried out the horizontal and vertical industrial chain layout and estimated the compound annual growth rate to be higher than 20% in the next three years.With the profit growth in the first three quarters of 2017, the biopharmaceutical segment PEG is 1.76, the drug circulation segment PEG is 1.01, And the company this value is 0.88, is the rare growth in the pharmaceutical sector underestimate the value of the stock. In addition, the recommended forest, Kyushu, Shanghai Pharmaceutical, concern Sinopharm Accord. Recommended Hitech Pharmaceutical: By strengthening the marketing team building , Strengthening the sales of core products and other measures, the performance of the company continued to improve.The main varieties tolasemide main competitive product line transformation bottlenecks encountered in the case, the short term can not continue to produce, to the company to bring rapid increase market share opportunities. Research product rich reserves, gradient is reasonable, is expected to come out every year in the next 5 years, new products are expected to 2017-2019 EPS of 0.82 yuan, 1.13 yuan and 1.53 yuan, the current share price Recommended for PEEL at 50.2x, 36.6x and 27.0x respectively for the first time coverage. Gloria Young: CDMO Industry Law Accelerates, Leading Companies Remarkable Benefit, Maintains 'Highly Recommended' Rating: Domestic CDMO Industries Exposed Overseas Transfer and MAH pilot domestic pilot, the growth rate appears warped Matthew effect in this area is obvious, the giant will fully benefit from the industry take-off .As the leading domestic CDMO CDL leader in the promotion of traditional business, while actively layout CRO, preparations, etc. Related fields to build a "one-stop service" system and is expected to be built on the platform of Dongfeng Motor Industry Co., Ltd. Maintaining the forecast of EPS from 2017 to 2019 at 1.41, 1.94 and 2.62 yuan, optimistic about the Company's future development and maintaining the rating of 'highly recommended'.
Recommended policy medical: 1, increase earnings forecast. Consider Hangzhou oral hospital Enter the high growth period (three quarterly volume has been verified volume Qiqi Sheng), the new Stomatological Hospital from the incubation period (3-5 years) into the profit period, the performance growth is expected to accelerate, while the layout of reproductive and ophthalmic two replicable excellent As a result, we raised our EPS of 2017-19 to 0.62 / 0.84 / 1.14 yuan (originally 0.61 / 0.80 / 1.06 yuan), up 46% / 35% / 36% from a year earlier, corresponding to the healthcare service sub-sector and cultivating new profit growth points. PE48 / 36 / 26X 2. Full downside risk As the 16-year earnings growth slowed (non-net profit growth slowed down from 27.65% in 15 years to 7.8% in 16 years), the share price of the Company has undergone sufficient adjustments. Valuation at a very reasonable position (PEG to 1) 3, up the valuation space to open the oral business is expected to enter the track of high growth, assisted reproductive began to contribute to the profit, ophthalmic business layout to open up the valuation to improve space , Performance compound annual growth rate of 30-35%, PE55-60X), so the rating from 'recommended' to 'highly recommended'.
Recommended Dong Cheng Pharmaceutical: Steady progress in various businesses of the Company, strong expectation of approval of PET-CT configuration approval, expected expansion of F18-FDG market and possible over-forecast of Andy Tech performance. Chondroitin sulfate prices have bottomed out and are conservative It is estimated that there will be a 30% increase in 2018. The price will be increased by 11.48 yuan, up 4% at the moment, with enough safety margin and 'highly recommended'.
Recommended Fuxiang shares: the bottom of the establishment, the performance turning point has been, 'strongly recommended' in 2017 by the part of the product price cuts, the impact of intense competition, the company's profit growth slowed to single digits, but the core product tazobactam remained The trend of volume and price growth going up. In early 2018, the price of sulbactam recovered to the level of the same period of last year. The price of tazobactam rose about 15% over the same period of last year and is expected to maintain a high level in 2018 without entering into new production capacity. Mergers and acquisitions into the field of fermentation of raw materials medicine to supplement the company's technical reserves, the product line is expected to be expanded in the future to the field of fermentation .At the same time the establishment of M & A funds provide the capital base for the company's extension.In the medium term, the company's products 15,16 years respectively through the FDA And Japan PMDA certification, small quantities are available to Merck and Pfizer in 2016. In the future, more orders are expected to open overseas markets. In the long run, the company has more product reserves and some products such as Emtricitabine, Efavirenz Lun, Lamivudine has entered the pilot phase, becoming the company's long-term growth driver.
Industry News Highlights: FDA Releases New Phase I Clinical Trial Application Technical Guidelines; The Central Committee of the Shenzhen Reform Group reviewed and passed "Several Opinions on Reforming and Improving the Policy and Policy on the Supply and Use of Generic Medicines", and the development of generic drugs will usher in spring; the CFDA decided to apply five ICH Two guiding principles to encourage drug medical instruments Innovation; Celgene's $ 9 billion acquisition of Juno, layout of CAR-T; Amgen-Alfa Bevacizumab generic drug Mvasi approved by Europe, optimistic about its prospects in the field of high-end generic drugs.
Market Review: Last week medicine Plate rose 0.84%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 2.24% over the same period; Shenwan an industry 26 sectors rose, the pharmaceutical industry ranked 28 in the industry 23. Medical sub-sectors in the medical services sector rose the most, up 2.94% ; Chemical raw materials plate the largest decline, down -0.12%.
