Introduction: Since 1879, the first Mercedes-Benz of Benz in Benz has been a car with a history of almost 140 years. Since 140 years, the shape of the automobile has undergone tremendous changes. In the future, will the automobile industry be more violent What will the car change in 20 years? Today, the NE Research Institute brings Nikkei News for the big prediction of the auto industry in the next 20 years.
Automotive electrification ratio is the key to determine the trend of powertrain, which will greatly affect the advantages of the Japanese engine manufacturers have the future direction of development.In 2017, electric vehicles began to universal access to the pace of China and Europe EV conversion gradually clear.China from 2019 into the new energy points, mandatory vehicle manufacturers to manufacture and sell EV vehicles.Chinese government's strong policy to promote the existence of a global EV sense.Electricization of the European market, including the public in the Within the European giant in the Chinese market share is not unrelated, they have no choice for China.
However, by 2030, the share of EVs should not rise all at once (Figure 1). The view that new-car sales make up about 10% of EVs is the mainstream, and even if battery prices are cheap enough, most people Still think long-term charging, charging infrastructure is difficult to solve the problem (Figure 2).
Figure 1 Main Market Powertrain Configuration Changes
The above table shows the forecast results of Japan Deloitte Consulting Co., Ltd. for the market changes in Europe, the United States, Japan, India and five other countries. In the overall trend of electric vehicles bullish, we can actually see that the forecast value is relatively modest by 2030. Nikkei Online Using this forecast, we calculate the actual possible value with reference to Japan's HEV penetration curve. We think that the global market for electric vehicles will reach around 4 million by 2025 and around 10 million by 2030.
Figure 2 Lithium-ion battery price forecast (cell prices continued to decline, down to 100usd / kwh by 2022)
Estimates of EV rates by various research institutes vary widely from 1.6% to 26% by 2030. Of course, oil companies will make small ones, while those with more than 20% will be financial ones. Extreme values, the Japanese industry analysts generally believe that the value is about 10%.
Therefore, Japan's automakers have enough time to prepare for EVs, and on the contrary, it would be very dangerous to completely turn EVs and drive engine business to bends at once, since the EV ratio of about 10% is not enough The profits of the existing engine business.
Looking to 2040 car electrification
If Japanese manufacturers are eager to mobilize, they can not ignore the danger of using the situation in China and surpass the rise of China by universalizing EV-related technologies and realizing low-cost weapons through the early release of engine technology.
China's NEV regulations have a strong sense of confrontation with Japanese manufacturers and although China's electrification initiatives are aimed at improving air pollution, it excludes HEV vehicles that may be the real solution. China Alert Utilizes Toyota, Honda, etc. As a result, Japanese manufacturers can not expect to be able to compete with the electrification strategies of China and Europe by around 2030 (Mr. Takao Nakashiro, Central and Western Automotive Industry Institute).
On the other hand, the electrification in China and Europe will not be overwhelming for Japanese manufacturers.In December 2017, Toyota and Japan announced that they will cooperate in developing batteries that seem to be establishing a Japanese alliance in the core battery of electric vehicles to create a non-dependent China's mechanism.
In the 1920s, Chinese battery makers were most likely to offer the cheapest lithium-ion batteries in the world because the scale of production would directly affect the competitiveness of lithium-ion batteries. Chinese manufacturers made huge investments in the context of NEV points , There is a large-scale production plan from the auto parts procurement principles from the point of view, is looking to buy batteries from China, but if the key components of the supply to the strong sense of resistance in Japan, China, there will be a big risk The cooperation between Toyota and Matsushita can be said to be an effort to consolidate the stable battery purchase point in Japan after the rise of Chinese manufacturers.
Looking forward to 2040, the majority of mainstream predictions will consider the EV ratio to be more than 30% .Research institutions are most likely reverse engineering projections by 'pushback' because global CO2 emissions will need to be reduced by 90% , Thus requiring an EV ratio of around 30%, which of course is a level the world should aim for given the global warming response.
The motor is focused on high efficiency in the high-speed field
The electrification will not happen overnight, but the proportion of HEV will rise sharply.European main push 48V low-power simple HEV will show explosive growth, by the first half of the decade will reach 10 million units by the middle of 2030 to 30 million units. And will gradually be replaced by EVs and the like, showing a decreasing trend. By 2030, the strong high-power HEVs of Toyota and Honda will gradually increase to 10 million units and high-power 48V HEVs will be introduced after 2020, driving the market development of.
The hardest-to-see figure on motorization penetration is PHEV, which is also divided into two groups, with JP Morgan Securities expects PHEV to be sluggish to reach its peak of 6 million by 2028, after which it is expected to stall. This view is largely based on the environmental regulations of the United States and China that emphasize the popularity of EVs rather than PHEVs On the other hand, Deloitte Tohmatsu Consulting expects PHEV to be 13 million in major markets by 2030 and 60 million by 2040 Taiwan, mainly to consider PHEV transformation of high-power and simplified HEV needs.
In terms of the battery, with the rise of Chinese manufacturers, the price of lithium-ion battery will be gradually reduced while the solid-state lithium-ion battery will be put into practical use (Figure 3). Toyota plans to mass production in the mid-2020s all-solid-state battery Is the most radical plan, but charging time can be shortened, energy density can be greatly increased.
Figure 3 Electrolyte curing is switching positive and negative materials opportunity
In the first half of the 2020s, batteries using sulfide solid electrolytes will emerge. After that, the positive and negative materials will all be replaced with new materials, resulting in a significant increase in energy density.
The above battery is to replace the electrolyte from liquid to solid, the ability to increase capacity because the solid electrolyte more easily than the electrolyte to improve stability, which can be applied to the current density of more positive and negative electrode material. Of course, initially commercially available All-solid-state batteries are solid electrolytes that use sulfides, but the positive and negative electrodes are still ternary and graphite-based batteries of conventional materials. The energy density can not be improved too much, mainly due to the shortened charging time.
For 2030, the cathode material uses sulfur (S), the lithium-sulfur battery with lithium metal anode material can reach the energy density of 700Wh / kg which is nearly 3 times of the current level, and after 2030, the "air electrode" Lithium as a negative all-solid-state lithium-air battery has a great possibility to achieve its targeted energy density is more than 5 times the current level of 1500Wh / kg.
Until 2030, the focus of motor development will focus on improving the efficiency in high-speed operation. Existing EVs driving at over 100km / h will have significantly lower cruising range because the efficiency of the motor, besides the battery, (Figure 4), and a strong solution to this problem is the practical application of a variable flux motor that can vary the flux density depending on the operating speed range.
Figure 4 motor in the high-speed rotating area is the biggest weakness of inefficiency
At present, the efficiency of electric vehicles at high speed over 100km / h will be greatly reduced, because of the need of field weakening control in the high-speed rotation region. In order to improve the efficiency of high-speed range, great progress has been made in the development of variable flux motor.
When the motor speed increases, the back-EMF increases, but the speed can not increase. Although the flux-weakening control produces reverse flux, but the current increases, the efficiency decreases. Variable flux motor can change the magnetic flux density, so does not depend on the weakening of the magnetic field control.
Current Neodymium magnet motors are likely to bloom after 2030. Currently, research into the next generation of magnets is under way and the magnetic force will reach twice the magnetic force of conventional magnets at 180 ° C, which may result in significant motor miniaturization.
There are two promising materials, one is a 1-12 series rare earth magnet with a 1: 12 ratio of rare earth elements to iron (Fe). Shizuoka University of Technology, in collaboration with Toyota, discovered the use of samarium (Sm) 1-12 magnets and the other is a magnet of the L10-type crystal structure consisting of Fe and nickel (Ni), with the use of Fe and Ni in large amounts in nature to produce magnetic forces equivalent to those of neodymium magnets. The magnetic Curie temperature is 550 ℃, higher than the neodymium magnet above 200 ℃.
It is also possible to use CNTs (carbon nanotubes) as windings around 2040. The copper wire can be drastically lighter to replace CNT CNTs are cylindrical materials with a carbon six-membered ring of nanometers in diameter. In addition to excellent electrical and thermal conductivity, the quality is only half that of aluminum.
Diamond MOSFET can achieve it
Transistors used in PCU core switching circuits equipped with power converters have been evolving to achieve miniaturization and efficiency. Although the mainstream of current is still silicon (Si) IGBTs (insulated gate bipolar transistors), MOSFETs of silicon carbide (SiC) (Metal Oxide Semiconductor Field Effect Transistor) is expected to be popularized in 2020. Compared with Si, the loss can be reduced to 1/10, the driving frequency can be increased by 10 times, but how to reduce the price is the biggest issue at present, but With the development of large diameter wafers, the price will continue to decline.In addition, the practical application of gallium nitride (GaN) MOSFET in the 2020s is also likely to start.
Figure 5 SiC wafer manufacturing process
Denso is developing a technology that heats SiC powder feedstock at high temperatures above 2300 ° C to crystallize and grow high quality SiC crystals on the seed crystals.It is said that it takes about 100 hours to grow crystals with a diameter of 150 mm and a thickness of 20 mm. Device photo courtesy of DENSO, wafer photo courtesy of Nikkei.
By 2030, the use of gallium oxide (Ga2O3) MOSFET into the field of vision .It is cheaper than SiC or GaN, and can achieve the same or higher switching performance.Since 2040, known as the 'ultimate semiconductor material' Diamond-type MOSFETs may be put into practical use, surpassing all the physical properties of existing materials such as flow, thermal conductivity and more.
We predict that in the development of internal combustion engines, the thermal efficiency of petrol engine engines will reach around 45% by 2020, more than 50% by 2030 and over 60% by 2040. The key to reaching 45% is ultra-lean combustion, Air-fuel ratio reached more than 2 times the mixed gas to achieve and Mazda may be the world's first mass production in 2019 enterprises (Figure 6).
Figure 6 petrol engine rapid development
(a) Nissan will produce gasoline engines with infinitely variable compression ratio by 2018. (b) Mazda will commercialize ultra-lean burnless variable compression ratio engines with an air-fuel ratio of over 30 by 2019. Pictures from Nissan and Mazda respectively.
Nissan is planning to develop an engine for use in HEV generation around the year 2025 with the goal of achieving more than 50% thermal efficiency. The engine will be built using a variable compression ratio engine that is mass-produced in 2018 and will achieve long travel. The development of insulated engines became the key to increasing thermal efficiency in 2030. The discovery of new materials that thermally shield the cylinder walls reduces the cooling loss that accounts for the major portion of the engine losses, and by 2040 if heat recovery and Combined cycle, the thermal efficiency may reach 60% or more comparable with high-efficiency thermal power plants.
