According to a report by the American Express website recently, Neil Cybart, an analyst with Above Avolan, who has been concerned about the dynamics of Apple Inc. for a long time, predicted that Apple's mobile phone sales will increase by 5% in the fourth quarter and handset sales will reach 82 million in the quarter, but the analyst did not Forecast iPhone X sales of mobile phones.
If this analyst predicts a reality, this means that the so-called "iPhone X Super Upgrade Cycle" expected by the outside world will be hard to come by.
Last year was the tenth anniversary of Apple's entry into the smart phone. Apple specifically introduced the iPhone X mobile phone with rich content upgrades. Compared with the previous iPhone, the iPhone has greatly increased the screen share and introduced such functions as face recognition and dynamic emoticons.
IPhone X handsets were on sale in November when scheduled consumers found it would take five or six weeks and some analysts believe the iPhone X will be another landmark phone that creates a super upgrade cycle similar to the iPhone 6, So that Apple's mobile phone sales and quarterly substantial growth.
In 2014, Apple imitated Samsung Electronics, carried out a large-screen design of mobile phones, the result was a great success, iPhone 6 created a super upgrade cycle of the Apple mobile phone business.
Tencent technology access Apple's fourth quarter 2014 earnings report found that Apple's cell phone sales soared 46% quarter to 74,460,000.
The 5% increase predicted by the above analysts is obviously hard to compare with 46% in 4Q14.
In fact, before a large number of Wall Street analysts pointed out that iPhone X mobile phone sales fell short of expectations, the so-called super upgrade cycle does not exist in the first quarter and the second quarter of this year, iPhone X sales will be further downturn According to Taiwan media reports, Apple suppliers are ready to suspend production in February to extend the Spring Festival holiday, mainly due to a sharp decline in orders for Apple's mobile phone parts, production line operating rates were forced to decline.
The above-mentioned fourth quarter mobile phone sales growth forecast by the above analysts is similar to that of the third quarter Apple iPhone (3%), that is, Apple can continue to avoid the downturn but has not achieved substantial growth.
In the past two years, Apple's mobile phone business has been in a stagnant or shrinking situation, mainly due to the gradual saturation of the global smart phone market, while Apple has been taken to upgrade the patch repair mode, the lack of major innovative features, appearance for many years Keep the same design, which gives consumers a 'fatigue upgrade'.
The third quarter of last year, Apple's new iPhone 8 two phone sales are not good, even the agency said the biggest sales since Apple's big screen cell phone, but Apple's $ 100 iPhone 7, get a good sales, to make up The downturn of the new cell phone.
Without a surprise, in the Christmas shopping season, iPhone 7 mobile phone can still help Apple boost mobile phone sales.At a week's earnings analyst meeting, Cook himself disclosed to the outside world iPhone X sales data, is unknown. According to Cook After taking power, Apple took a 'good news' model for its data disclosure. For example, Apple Watch has been selling for years and has never released data to this day. The slightly successful business of Apple Music, for example, Will be open to members of the public.