At the SEMI Industry Strategy Symposium, Daniel Niles made short-term and long-term projections for the 2018 semiconductor, arguing that 3D sensing technology in the semiconductor market will be one of the fastest growing markets and will be available in commercial products and foundations Facilities play a key role, this effect will not last long.
3D sensing technology
Semiconductor industry short-term forecast
Semi research for the 2017 calendar year shows that the semiconductor industry has achieved the best growth since the global economy was still recovering from the financial crisis in 2010. Sales of personal computers increased 14% in 2010 (-2 in 2017 %), Mobile phone sales increased by 32% (4% in 2017), car sales increased by 14% (2% in 2017).
Specifically for the month, November rose 23% from a year earlier; 20% in October, 20% in September and 25% in August. In September 2017, IC sales rose 7%, followed by 11% in August and July 10% in May to 15%.
In the third quarter of 2017, Apple's inventories increased 128% year-on-year, how much to consume in the first quarter of this year? Only 12% year-on-year growth? Compared to the same period, Cisco stocks increased by 44%; Hewlett-Packard increased by 29% .
In the crazy memory market, Samsung Electronics achieved 41% growth; Hynix was 23%. Automotive market is not the largest memory terminal market, Volkswagen, Toyota and Ford inventories increased by 9-18%.
Every spring, the delivery time in the semiconductor industry is extended and inventory is driven in. Even with strong sales during the holiday season, the seasonal fall in demand in March will still cause companies' inventory depletion to be poor.
This is not of much significance as semiconductor shipments increased by 5% in 2016 and 15% in 2017. We think there will be an adjustment by the beginning of 2018. The only problem is the growth in the end market unit, the balance sheet The huge disconnect between the stock and the semiconductor industry unit growth.
Long-term forecast of the semiconductor industry
Positive news
Cloud computing still has a long way to go to get more data from driverless vehicles in the future; artificial intelligence will require tremendous computational power to replicate 100B neurons into one's brain.
3D sensing technology will be one of the fastest growing markets and it is estimated that 150 million fully driverless vehicles will be popularized globally every year between 2020 and 2021, which will require a large number of 3D sensing devices.
By 2040, Britain and France will ban the production of diesel and gasoline vehicles, and China is considering similar measures.
Volkswagen will invest 20 billion euros in an electric version of all models by 2030. The industrial robot market will reach 12 billion U.S. dollars by 2016 and nearly 35 billion U.S. dollars by 2025. Robots should be taxed by Bill Gates standard .
Voice and video cameras require a lot of computational power as computer / cell phone control inputs.Graphics should continue to grow in gross domestic product (GDP) and be the device of choice for Internet surfing.As smart phones continue to be the preferred device, PCs may Will continue years of regression.
potential risks
By 2025, China will achieve 70% of its self-sufficiency goals, just as Japan was in the 1980s and Korea / Taiwan in the 1990s.
Semiconductor debt levels rise, interest rates may be higher after the merger.Solidation of the semiconductor industry is slowing down, so the need for investment to promote future earnings growth.Even if the total economic output of 18 trillion US dollars, the trade deficit of 50 billion US dollars is also great The issue of border taxes will be destructive.