Davos specialists in a special 'digital currency: foam assets' debate
It is worth asking whether these encrypted assets will eventually continue to grow and continue to flourish, or whether they are not bubbles, frauds, Ponzi schemes, money laundering tools or the seeds of the next financial crisis?
Recently, many central banks announced that they will explore or test the central bank's digital currency (CBDC) based on blockchain technology and other technologies. What does this mean for cryptocurrencies? Whether the central bank's digital currency uses blockchain technology or other technologies has yet to be finalized .
As technology developers, investors, regulators and central bankers look at encrypted assets are not the same point of view, it is difficult to reach a consensus.To the World Economic Forum (winter Davos Forum), the first financial ' Digital Currency: Foam Assets? "The debate was devoted to the future development path for cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin, ICO (first generation tokens) and blockchain technology.The guests participating in the discussion included the Central Banker, Nobel Prize Winner in Economics , Senior investors, can be described as a powerful 'century debate.'
"First Financial Daily" deputy editor, the first Financial Research Institute Yang Yanqing
Under the sharp questioning, Cecilia Skingsley, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Sweden, Sterling, Yale University, Robert J. Shiller, Professor of Economics, Jennifer Zhu Scott, Founding Partner of Radian Partners, and Neil Rimer, Co-founder of Index Ventures.
Bitcoin is an asset and is an interesting experiment
In the eyes of traditional economists, bitcoin seems indispensable to being "guilty" of money-laundering tools and big bubbles, but in this debate, Shijiazhuang and Schiller grudgingly reckon cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin are more An asset rather than a 'future currency' Schiller mentioned even more - there seems to be too much focus on bitcoin over other technologies.
When asked "how do we think about the basic value of bitcoin and whether digital currencies such as bitcoin will someday replace a portion of traditional currency," Shearer cites a few past examples.
Robert Schiller, professor of economics at Sterling, Yale University
In 1979, he said, there was a very interesting proposal that in response to the failure of the gold standard, a proposal was made to "compensate dollar", that is, the introduction of a paper currency backed by gold value that kept its purchasing power through the monetary authorities at all times Constant, 'talked about for a long time, but never achieved,' he said.
Another example is the Unidad de Fomento account unit in Chile in 1967, which needed to keep adjusting its inflation rate in order to keep its prices stable, but eventually Unidad de Fomento was used only in some parts of South America.
From there we talked about bitcoin, Shearer said bitcoin is a "fun experiment." Bitcoin is another very clever idea, and I'm impressed with the technology, but in my opinion, it's another Technology, I tend to think bitcoin is a fun experiment, which is not a permanent feature of our lives.We overemphasize bitcoin, we should (concern) be extended to the blockchain, blockchain and other applications. He said.
Shi Jinli Li believes that many of the properties of bitcoin decide that it is not suitable to become a currency. 'Bitcoin volatility is too violent, so not a good currency at the same time, if bitcoin as a currency, will cause deflation. Of course, you can use it as an asset, and as long as people think something is valuable, you can use it as an asset. '
Swansley, deputy governor of the Bank of Sweden
Scholars generally believe that the virtual currency with deflation will inhibit economic development.Bitcoins will reach 21 million in 2140 the maximum limit, the limited number of virtual currency is difficult to become compatible with the needs of the development of modern economic exchange medium, if the currency , Inevitably lead to deflation, inhibit economic development.
In addition, Bitcoin lacks the credit support of the state and can not fulfill the function of commodity exchange as the functional currency. The lack of a central regulatory mechanism is incompatible with the modern credit monetary system.
Of course, some people question that Satoshi Nakamoto's essay on bitcoin was born during the financial crisis, when everyone completely lost faith in the central bank.
She said: "In Sweden, the transaction volume of bitcoin is 1/30 of the credit card transaction, and the latter is handled by the central bank system. The central bank Still competitive. '
In her view, 'money is a social contract that realizes the functions of stored value, transactions, etc. If you send too much, you will have inflation and too little deflation will hurt the people. Once we tried to use gold as the currency, but with the Human civilization, the development of science and technology, the gold failed.We used to use banknotes in the past, now is electronic payment, etc. 'In the opinion of Shijinsley, the future is still worth further observation.
Hold for technology, faith
Of course, there are a group of technical followers who do not think that bitcoin is just one of the thousands of assets in their eyes, bitcoin is the future currency. "The bifurcation, which attracted much attention last year, was in fact part of the 'miners' Bitcoin deals slowly, and 'breeds' out of events.
Jennifer Zhu Scott, Founding Partner of Radian Partners
'I do not care about the price of bitcoin, it has survived for so long, it shows that it is very viable, and I hold for the idea and belief behind the bitcoin, which will also inspire many new innovations "Zhu Jin 郦 said.
She said that if the value of stored-value, encrypted assets such as bitcoin appear to have outperformed gold; as for whether blockchain technology can replace the widely used real-time full settlement system (RTGS, process flow and money transfer instructions) commonly used by the central bank, 'Blockchain technology is not yet guaranteed due to size issues, but not impossible in the future,' she said.
'All in all, this is a long-term project. Digital assets are not perfect right now, but for the first time I read Zhong Cong's white paper, I was drawn to this kind of' point-to-point payment 'power. Today we can pool senior investment People, central bankers, Nobel Prize winners to discuss, is not it because it is a superb project ?, "Zhu said.
Specifically, bitcoin transaction data is stored in the block, the size of the block limits the amount of data saved.Current block size is 1M, each character at least 250KB, a block processing up to seven transactions per second Compared to VISA average transaction volume of tens of thousands per second, Alipay peak close to 90,000 Therefore, there are some insiders have told First Financial News, those who uphold 'bitcoin is the future currency' belief will inevitably support expansion , Because 1M greatly limits the payment scenario.But if you just use bitcoin for value storage, in fact 1M is not a problem.
As a veteran investor, Remus also talked about his beliefs about bitcoin from his own point of view. "The current monetary centrism is sometimes not trustworthy, and the investors I see who hold bitcoin tend to be smart , Well-educated and rational people such as one who grew up in Argentina and had seen their parents go to the supermarket to spend all their money in one day because of fears the next day the devaluation of the currency would be lacking in their ability to maintain the monetary value of the government For them, bitcoin can be a reassuring way of storing value.
Neil Rimer, co-founder of Index Ventures
However, Reimer still believes that bitcoin is in need of regulation and that "everything I want to involve (investment) needs to be regulated." I do not agree with the kind of 'we need to change everything' because the regulated science Not cool enough. "In fact, all innovations in finance and technology go a little beyond the regulatory framework in place, but operate in a responsible manner."
For example, he said, 'such as the United Kingdom, introduced the' sand box regulation 'model, assuming that they would do something of value that would allow them to develop freely but also ensure that the hazards are manageable.'
Global Central Bank Digital Currency = Future Currency?
It is precisely because of the current blockchain technology limitations, decentralization of the concept is still difficult to be widely accepted, cryptocurrency fluctuations and other reasons, now seems to be for all sectors of the central bank digital currency higher expectations.
Over the past two years, the world's central banks have shown great interest in studying digital currencies, including China, Japan, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Canada, the Netherlands, Australia, Singapore, India, etc. The Singapore Central Bank and the Bank of Sweden have started to make relevant Tests, the Chinese central bank is also organizing an active exploration and research.
'We are really researching the central bank's digital currency, but it will take some time for it to be observed,' said Skinner. To First Financial, 'If I release it, I think it is more likely to be M0 than M1 , M2. '
In its previous report, the Bank of Sweden said that a 'cashless society' is coming. In order to defend the central bank's ability to control its currency issuance and adjust its currency turnover to regulate its economy, the Bank of Sweden decided to develop its own digital currency 'e-krona' Not only does currency take advantage of the now popular blockchain technology, making clearing and trading systems easier and ensuring that money is central.
Fan Yifei, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, recently authorized the publication of the First Financial Paper. China's current central bank digital currency design should focus on M0 instead of M1 and M2. At this stage, M1 and M2 are based on commercial bank accounts and have realized electronic Or digitized without the need to digitize again with digital currencies. "Interbank payment and settlement systems (such as the S & P payment system and the online payment interbank settlement system) that support the circulation of M1 and M2, commercial banks' intra-bank systems, and non-bank payment agencies All kinds of online payment means are operating normally, and they are constantly improving and upgrading, becoming increasingly efficient and able to meet the needs of China 's economic development.
In Fan Yifei's opinion, using the central bank's digital currency instead of M1 and M2 will not only help to increase the payment efficiency, but will also result in a huge waste of existing systems and resources. In contrast, the existing banknotes and coins issue, India There is a high cost of such links as making and recycling and storing, more circulation system levels, and inconvenience of carrying, easily forged, anonymity uncontrollable, and the risk of being used in criminal activities such as money laundering. The necessity of digitization is increasing day by day.
Of course, all walks of life are still uncertain about what types of central bank digital money will become 'future currencies'. "I think the future currency may be the RMB CBDC. If it can promote trade along the" One Belt and Road, "it will certainly make a huge Progress. 'Zhu Jin 郦 said.
Reimer believes the digital dollar may be the currency of the future; Schiller believes the euro CBDC has the potential to be the currency of tomorrow.