Due to a large number of foreign sources before and after the Spring Festival arrives in Hong Kong, the latter part of the plastic price will be some callback, the author is expected to fluctuate around 1000 points up and down 1000 points.
Waste plastics imports contracted or exceeded expectations
In the first half of 2018, only the additional production capacity of 700,000 tons of China Shipping Shell in the domestic market may be put into operation in March, but from the fourth quarter of 2017 onwards, more than one set of installations have been put on the market in succession, We expect that there will still be a number of overseas installations to be launched by 2018. Concerns over supply pressure in 2018 are also coming from this point and the Chinese market will obviously be under pressure if a large number of Middle East and North American sources continue to flow to China In fact, compared with the growth rate of demand in recent years, there is no obvious splitting in the growth rate of international production capacity, so the pressure may not be as serious as imagined.
At present, the market believes there is not much pressure to increase new capacity in China. However, given the continuous one-month import profits, the market is expected to have a concentrated supply of foreign goods before and after the Spring Festival. Coupled with the seasonal accumulation during the Spring Festival, the post-market supply or more relaxed.
Most optimistic about the supply side of the market is still the import of waste plastics.After the state banned the import of household waste plastics in July 2017, the domestic investors remained tight on the polyethylene supply in 2018. As of December 26, 2017 Published in the first batch of 2018 restricted import approval, the number of waste plastic is almost negligible, so long sharply in the futures disk Masukura pull up behind the second and third batch of approvals, the number of waste plastics more Is as low as 0, January 22, 2018 approved the show shows that the fourth installment of the approval remains low, which undoubtedly exacerbated the market for the expected material market significantly compressed body expected if the compressed back into the supply of 1 million in 2018 Ton, then the new domestic production capacity can not meet the growth of domestic demand, polyethylene price center of gravity is expected to a higher level.
Demand growth is expected to maintain 5%
From a macro point of view, in view of the GDP of the world's major economies maintaining a relatively steady growth, I believe that the positive growth rate of polyethylene demand can still be maintained, domestic demand is still expected to be 5% -6% growth rate.Data show that in 2017 polyethylene Output of 15.83 million tons, an increase of 5.43%, apparent consumption of 27.4 million tons, an increase of 11%, with imports of 2 million tons, the demand growth rate of 8%, while the year 2017 did not There will be obvious accumulation of stocks, therefore, this part of new sources of domestic effective digestion in 2018. As long as domestic demand growth of 5% -6%, it is sufficient to digest the pressure on new capacity at home and abroad.
From the microscopic point of view, the downstream factories of LLDPE are mainly divided into agricultural film factories (accounting for 25%) and packaging film factories (accounting for 60%). In recent years, the raw material purchasing methods are flexible, the futures prices are high and the stocking enthusiasm is reduced; For example, in the January 15, the futures prices high, the spot transactions sluggish; 16 futures plunge, the enthusiasm of the factory getting goods to increase volume transactions.At present in the sensitive time point before the Spring Festival, the author Concerned about the mulching plant when to start stocking .If the pre-holiday raw material prices are too high to delay the stocking, then there will be a centralized stocking needs after the holiday.While the packaging film factory volume is larger, the season is not obvious, in general, the need to track Orders, but also need to focus on inventory.At present, all aspects of packaging film stock is not high, demand performance remarkable.
In short, mid-March supply will gradually ease the transition to the proposed short-term oscillation to keep thinking, rolling operation, bargain-hunting more.