On Monday, the collective brokerage home appliance stocks, to help the stock index after a lapse of two years to re-stand on the 3500 point mark since the beginning of this year, the appliance sector blitz, the overall increase of 13.91%, 28 SW Second in the real estate section.
Analysts pointed out that on the one hand, the current upward trend of the major indices is still obvious, the market is still strong kinetic energy on the one hand, on the other hand, due to the current valuation structure of the appliance industry is still relatively reasonable, consumer upgrades are also largely support the industry profitability , So the market outlook is still likely to continue beyond expectations.
Recently, the agency generally optimistic about the performance of home appliances plate 后 5b4 At the same time, the funds have been accelerating the layout of the plate. As of yesterday, 18 household appliances in the single large net inflow of funds, including Gree (2.547 billion yuan), Qingdao Haier (653 million), Midea Group (404 million yuan) large net inflow of funds during the period ranked the top 3. In addition, Hisense Kelon (80,695,200 yuan), Hisense Electric (61,082,200 yuan), Supor (39,738,700 yuan ), Flying Electronics (34.3875 million yuan), Shen Konka A (25.5604 million yuan), Macro (21.868 million yuan), Skyworth Digital (12.1856 million yuan) and Zhejiang Meida (11.4877 million yuan) Are also more than 10 million yuan, the above 11 stocks since 2018 accumulatively 3.849 billion yuan of gold.
Among them, Hisense Kelon, Gree, Hisense Electric, Qingdao Haier, Midea Group, Macro and Supor seven leading stocks since 2018 a total net inflow of large single capital reached 3.8 billion.
Overseas capital is more advocating the value of investment, especially since the beginning of last year (January 15 to January 19) interoperability flow of funds north, although Gree shares fell more than 3.8% during the interval, but still enter Stock Connect and Shanghai Stock Connect 30 stocks before the interim increase of more than 147 million.
January 22, Gree also appeared a discount of 18.18% of the blockbuster deal, the buyer for the Shanghai Century Avenue, CITIC Securities Sales Department, the seller for the Shenzhen Nanshan Avenue, Northeast Securities Sales Department, the transaction price of 46.31 yuan, the turnover of 47.7 million yuan.
From the performance point of view, as of the 12th, a total of 31 cities listed on home appliances 16c9 家 released annual report performance notice, of which 24 companies pre-hi performance, accounting for nearly Bacheng.
The valuation of related leading stocks is still low, although the overall growth of the household appliances sector is still impressive, with Hisense Kelon (11.07x), Gree (17.33x), Hisense (17.94x) and Qingdao Haier (20.23x) ) Latest dynamic price-earnings ratio is lower than the appliance industry 23.78 times the overall price-earnings ratio.
In addition, Midea Group (23.91 times), Macro (29.06 times) and Supor (30.00 times) and other stocks latest dynamic price-earnings ratio is also relatively low at 30 times the following (including 30 times).
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Appliance plate in the golden period of development
Analysts pointed out that, in addition to underestimate the value behind the appliance sector rising behind the basic logic is to increase spending power recently Mizuho Securities chief Chinese economist Shen Jianguang pointed out that China's retail sales in 2018 is expected to catch up for the first time or even exceed the United States.According to Mizuho According to the data provided by the banks, the retail sales in China are expected to surpass 5.8 trillion U.S. dollars (about 38 trillion yuan) this year, a 12-fold increase from 2000, when retail sales in China were still below the scale of the previous year In addition, there are other statistics show that the scale of China's home appliance market in 2017 reached 1.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.8% .In this context, the value of the appliance sector also further highlights.
According to the National Real Estate Development Investment and Sales in 2017 released recently by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the sales volume of commercial flats in real estate in China is expected to refresh the property market in 2017. This is undoubtedly a good thing for the appliance sector.
From a horizontal and vertical comparison point of view, CICC pointed out that in 2016 China's urbanization rate was 57.4%, equivalent to the level of Japan in about 1955, is still in its infancy.With the current China's second and second tier consumer electronics consumption gradually high The new home appliances market is still in the golden period of development.
Essence Securities said that as the real estate after the cycle, appliances, especially in kitchen appliances and white air-conditioning relative to real estate in terms of greater flexibility.At the same time as a durable consumer goods, household appliances industry, the development of strong stability, especially in the 34 market From the accelerating trend of consumer upgrades and the growth logic of individual stocks, there is obviously a large investment opportunity in the sector.
In addition, the fiery consumer spending before the Spring Festival undoubtedly on the A-share market, consumer electronics and other consumer segments will also have a direct positive catalyst, and this year's Spring Festival relative push than in previous years, is also expected to lengthen the consumer segment of the market cycle, release more Investment opportunities.
In addition to being favored in the secondary market, the data from the agency's research also show that listed companies in the home appliance industry have recently been closely followed by agencies such as Foshan Lighting, Vantage, Boss Appliances, Sanxiong Aurora and Sofia.
On January 19, 47 public fund companies, including Rongtong Fund, Galaxy Fund, Debang Fund, Qianhai Open Source, Wanjia Fund and Zheshang Fund, released their shareholdings of the funds one after another on the whole. As a whole, the financial, household appliances , Food and beverage and other industries to become 'sought-after goods', the leading home appliances Gree Electric Appliance is getting more holdings of 24 funds.
Look at industry trends
Some reports pointed out that in the past five years, China's total retail sales of social consumer goods slowed down, while the quality of consumer goods contrarian rose, with an increase of 26.4% from 34.4%. Thus, consumer awareness of consumer spending is shifting from price to quality , While promoting the consumer electronics market to high-end, intelligent development.Among which the United States said it will focus on endogenous growth, automated layout and integration; and Gree said that through artificial intelligence home, new energy technologies, smart equipment and more The layout of the field; Qingdao Haier also said that the overall direction of 2018 is the wisdom of the family and globalization.
Liu Buchen industry insiders said the high-end is the trend of the entire appliance industry, but under this trend will occur differentiation, some brands will be more and more high-end, the other part of the brand will be eliminated.This trend will be more obvious.
Also insiders said that for the high-end appliance business, not only the price is expensive, the key to have the appropriate value, value-added, consumers will buy it Caixing otherwise, it can only be called a high price but can not be a snatch of high-end consumer Upgraded business opportunities.
See the dividend rate
Since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of the three major dividend indices has been significantly higher than that of the SSE Index. The SSE Dividend Index, the CSI Dividend Index and the Shenzhen Dividend Index have risen 16.03%, 16.53% and 40.53% respectively this year, much higher than the 6.13% increase of the SSE Index.
Among them, the average dividend yield over the past three years, more than 4% of the 20 listed companies, Gree appliances as the leading home appliance stocks in the past three years the average dividend yield of 7.23%, ranking second only to China Shenhua.
Market participants believe that long-term high cash dividend rate means that listed companies operating in good condition, with strong profitability as a support, these stocks are often the object of value investors are concerned about the same time, as the broader market continued to rise, a high proportion The cash dividend also meets the long-term funding preference for low risk.
According to China Merchants Securities, the current share price of Gree is corresponding to 6% of the 2017 annual dividend (assuming no increase in the dividend payout ratio). It is estimated that the profit in 2018 will reach 26 billion to 27 billion yuan, corresponding to a PE of about 10 times in 2018, while in 2018 , The same cheaper and 'familiar' industry leader which only Vanke, price-earnings ratio of 11 times.
In addition to the generally concerned about the United States, Gree, Haier and the boss of appliances, high-quality small appliances such as Flying Branch, Op lighting, etc., are also many institutional investors optimistic.