At the beginning of the new year, once the hot mobile phone industry chain was stumbled. In the context of a slowdown of overall shipments, news of major mobile phone companies, such as Apple, cut their orders and the number of A-share handset supply chain companies is greatly adjusted. An Jie Technology, Chang Ying Precision and other mobile phone industry chain stocks even cut.
Securities Times · e company interviewed was informed that the second half of 2017, the Chinese market, mobile phone sales decline more obvious after the end of the 4G replacement tide, the communication network of mobile phone equipment weakened demand for application software on mobile phone hardware demand led role weakened , And camera, a full screen to stimulate consumer expectations, market head brand sales sluggish, so that the market as a whole feel the chill.Part of A mobile phone supply chain business progress less than expected situation also appears at the end.
However, the second half of last year, sales decline in the smart phone market there are structural reasons exist, affected by the supply chain, a number of mobile phone companies will be originally released in the fourth quarter of last year, delayed to the first half of this year, the first half of 2018 market boom is expected Boost, and the second quarter is expected to reproduce upward turning point.
Sales in China dropped suddenly
Compared with Apple cut a single message, as the world's largest mobile phone market, China's sudden decline in sales of the news more exasperated market pessimism.
Recently, the Ministry of Industry released data show that the Chinese market in 2017 smart phone shipments of 461 million units, down 11.6% .Among them, in December the domestic handset market shipments of 42,612,000 units, down 32.5%. Past data also showed , Shipments in the domestic handset market dropped 22% YoY in November 2017. In the first six months of 2017, the domestic handset market posted 239mn units and 565 new models were listed, down 5.9% and 26% YoY, respectively.
'This is the last ten years the Chinese mobile phone market has never seen.' 'Wu Lei, vice president of OPPO told the Securities Times · e company interview said that the decline in China's mobile phone market, a sweeping the growth cycle of upstream and downstream industries seems to be strong Press the pause button.
The research report released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in September 2017 shows the trajectory of the rise and fall of the smart phone market in China in recent years.
The report shows that the global mobile phone market in 2009-2010 into the era of 3G replacement, China's mobile phone output growth as high as 20-40%, 2013-2014 into the era of intelligent machines and 4G replacement, cell phone production growth rate reached 10-30 %. With the penetration of intelligent machines increasing, the output of domestic mobile phones has gradually entered a period of slow growth.In 2015, the output of handsets in China grew 8%, a marked decline from the double-digit growth of previous years, However, global shipments grew at a rate of only 2% in the same year. In 2016, with global handset shipments growing at a negative rate, China's handset production still achieved a rapid 10% growth.
2016 is also a miracle time for the rapid growth of Chinese brands.China shipped 139 million units in 2016, making it one of the top three in the world.OPPO shipments nearly 100 million units, an astonishing 122% growth rate, vivo growth over the same period also exceeded 100%. By 2017, the mobile phone market peaked, shipments showed weakness.
Correspondingly, the increasingly fierce market competition in the mobile phone market, the rapid concentration of market resources, a high-level mobile phone brands to accept the Securities Times · e company interview said that the pattern of the Chinese mobile phone market from the original 'inverted triangle' into a 'T' pattern, Head brands continue to expand product lines, high school low-priced shuffle across the board.With the end of 4G mobile phone replacement tide, the replacement cycle extended to 22 months, corresponding to the global average replacement cycle of 19 months.
Corresponding to the slowdown in the growth of domestic mobile phone brands, Apple also continued to pass the bad news last December, iPhone X cut a single message on the rampant, recently there are analysts said the iPhone X will be discontinued in June.A series of negative News, although Apple's share price hit a record high, A-share supply chain companies have been unusually bleak as of January 23, the well-known Apple shares nearly Jiejie shares of technology, Lan Si Technology, Opry Technology 11 Month shares fell over 30%.
On the other hand, the fourth-quarter report released by TSMC, the world's largest chip maker, showed that the number of computer-related applications in Q4 2017 increased 8% QoQ and that of consumer electronics-related applications dropped 38% MoM due to bitcoin and other encryption The strong growth of currency mining operations, the company made up for the impact of weakening demand for mobile phones.
Retail Channel: Business is poor
In the worldwide market of about 1.5 billion smartphones, the beneficiaries in the industry are not only upstream supply chain companies but also huge offline channels. At its peak, OPPO and vivo have more than 200,000 domestic stores, such as capillaries In general, infiltrated to various counties, townships .Sales fell as the case suffered, the line stores also felt the winter.
January 23, Zheng Liangyu in an interview with the Securities Times · e company said: 'The end of last year are all cell phone sales season, but this year I feel bad business. Store sales have been declining since the second half of the year, and the inventory of each mobile phone brand has increased a lot, and the sales profit has also fallen sharply.
Sales of cold, a lot of offline businesses sprouted in. Zheng Liang said that he is located in Taihe County, Fuyang City, had about 600 mobile phone retail stores, closed in the second half of 2017, about more than 100. He believes that mobile phones at the county level The main reason for the sluggish urban business is: 'Now the quality of mobile phones are good, basically able to solve the demand, we do not have the power of mobile phones.Although the mobile phone product updates soon, such as all brands are selling full screen, but changed A screen is not too attractive to consumers.
'From several brands we sell, Huawei is still relatively good, OPPO, vivo have declined, gold fell even more powerful, but to do these few brands of business is still some profit, and sales since the second half of last year, millet, Meizu, etc. Several brands have been losing money, plans to turn off the Meizu shop this year. 'Zheng Liang said,' Now the news is worth the wait, the recent channel of several major mobile phone brands will be encouraging, the release of the signal is the first half of this year will have More innovative products for sale.
According to data released by the data agency in 2017 offline market sales report, major Chinese brands in sales, Apple, Huawei shipments remained stable fluctuations, millet bottoming out, the majority of other brands showed a downward trend shipments. The top ten brands in the mobile phone market sold 31.767 million offline devices in January last year, down from 26.391 million in December, down 17%.
China's market top OPPO, vivo sales in January 2017 to December offline market is even more spiral decline in January the two companies offline sales were about 8.1 million and 7.1 million, but in December Sales dropped to 5.7 million and 5.2 million respectively, down about 29% and 27% respectively. Goldlink, which suffered a funding chain issue, posted a 31% drop in December sales in December 2017 from Metros and 47% in Meizu %.
The second quarter or turning point
Smartphone growth cycle to the inflection point time? Although the market performance is bleak now, but business and industry analysts are still more optimistic.
Yan Zhanmeng, a senior analyst at Countpoint, a data institution, said: 'The decline in this round of mobile phone market is mainly due to the rapid growth of the Chinese market in 2016. Market capacity peaked and natural callbacks were formed. We previously expected handset shipments in China to start in the second quarter of 2017 Callback, the actual decline occurred in the second half, basically in line with expectations.
For the year-end market sales decline, January 23, OPPO stakeholders to accept the Securities Times · e company interview said that from the overall market environment, the mid-2017 mobile phone market began to decline, the market competition is more intense, OPPO in Base on the premise of a larger base, the impact is obvious.From the business itself, there are product initiatives on the strategic choice, OPPO product price segment layout is more concentrated, the low price segment of the product is relatively lacking, the company did not for short-term Business data and change business activities.
For the market rumors 'on the upstream supply chain significantly reduce the procurement of components is expected to', OPPO said that the expected order placement of components, on the one hand is based on the judgments on the handset market, on the other hand is the price of components Expected judgment: 2018 As the 5G is not yet commercially available, it is expected that the industry trend will be similar to that of 2017 in 2018, but the brand concentration will be even higher. The Company will actively deploy high and new technologies such as 5G, AI, full-shaped screen and accelerate the expansion of overseas developed markets, The future is expected.
An analyst with securities firms to accept the Securities Times · e company interview, said the first quarter of this year by the mobile phone supply chain of Apple and domestic brands 'cut a single' factors, combined with the overall slowdown in the mobile phone market, shipments and part of the company capital chain Tense negative emotions, triggering the previously profitable investors to leave, the concept stocks into the overall 'pessimistic moment', but this pessimism is expected to change in the second quarter, the second quarter of this year, smart phones will be intensive release of new products, coupled with Apple in the next There are a lot of reserves in the first half of the year and we expect the industry will see an upward turning point in the second quarter.
For the overall market trend in 2018, a number of listed companies to accept the Securities Times · e company reporter interviewed also expressed optimism.Mobile phone ODM executives told the Securities Times · e company reporter said the end of the year mobile phone sales decline structural factors, He explained that there will be a large number of new products available for sale in the fourth quarter of last year. However, due to the supply chain and other reasons, all new models equipped with new technologies are postponed until the first half of 2018 and will be reversed in the first half of 2018. There The release of a large number of new products is expected to make the handset industry in the first half of the year not short off-season. In addition, Chinese handset brands will aggressively enter the overseas market in 2018 and are also expected to boost the handset industry chain.