'Look at this picture and 17% to 20% of the job functions will be replaced by automation, something that will happen in China by 2030.' Recently, Huaqiang Sen, dean of McKinsey Global Institute and a senior managing partner of the world, The 3rd New Economic Think-tank Conference 'said so.
"China is already the center of the global digital economy." Hua Johnson believes that in the advanced economies, the economic development in the next 10 to 30 years will be driven digitally, including of course China.
For the first time in two sessions in 2017, the digital economy will be included in the government work report. So how will the digital economy in China develop in the future? At the same time, how to prevent potential risks?
Three elements to promote the development of China's digital economy
According to statistics, in 2007 the top ten global market value, including Apple, Google, Microsoft, including technology networks occupy seven seats.It is noteworthy that Tencent and Alibaba from China for the first time into the top 10. China's digital economy Why development is so rapid?
Huaqiang Sen believes that China's digital economy is mainly driven by three factors, first and foremost, a huge and rejuvenating market base for rapid and large-scale commercialization. According to the latest data released by China Internet Network Information Center (CNNIC) In January, the number of Internet users in China reached 751 million. Among them, the number of young Internet users aged 20 to 29 reached 29.7%, accounting for the highest proportion.
Second, the digital giants are fully capitalized and are building a strong digital ecosystem, with Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent already accounting for 42% of the total venture capital, according to data provided by McKinsey.
Third, the government gave innovators room to experiment.In May 2016, the National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Science and Technology, Ministry of Industry and Information and Internet Office jointly issued the "Internet + 'Three-Year AI Implementation Plan,' 'and stated explicitly that it will form by 2018 Hundreds of billions of artificial intelligence market scale, release a strong signal of favorable policies.
Hua Qiangsen said: 'There is both a market, a company, and a government. All of them are willing to develop the digital economy. This is integration. All these mergers are taking place in China. I think this will continue in the next 30 years.'
However, Hua Qiangsen also pointed out that at present China's digital economy has not yet reached the position of the world's leader. 'Whether it is people, databases, training or trading volume, etc., from all aspects we can see that China is catching up with the United States, but there are still A gap.
According to the analysis by McKinsey Global Institute, the gap between China and the United States in industry data was 4.9 times in 2013, while the gap narrowed to 3.7 times in 2016. Hua Johnson said it is good for investors Message, because 'means there are more opportunities to narrow this gap.'
There are still seven major factors to promote employment growth
By analyzing income levels, demographics and industry bodies, the McKinsey Institute forecasts that the level of automation of Chinese society will be between 17% and 20% by 2030. That is to say, only 12 years later, nearly 20% of Chinese society, The job function will be completely replaced by automation.
Machines replace man, it seems that the digital economy is an inevitable question.If technology has become as clever as human beings, how should humans survive and how can human beings achieve inclusive growth through their work?
According to Gao Hongbing, vice president of Alibaba Group and president of Ali Research Institute, there is no need to worry so much about FaceBook that it is active in over 2 billion and WeChat more than 900 million. This creates a super giant market and creates A lot of jobs, he said, 'Alibaba created 33 million jobs, FaceBook also created 4.52 million jobs'.
Despite rising levels of social automation and automation, the McKinsey report shows that there are still seven major drivers of employment growth from the demand side: consumer income growth, aging healthcare, technology spending, real estate investment, Investment in infrastructure, energy conversion and efficiency, among which the growth of consumer income has become the most important factor in promoting employment growth.
Hua Qiangsen said that China has an advantage on the demand side compared with the United States because the number of middle-income groups in China has exploded, generating huge consumer demand and becoming an important factor in promoting employment.
In the meantime, new jobs in the digital economy will create new demands for employees, Hua said, adding that more expertise will be applied in the future, including cooperation, management and people-to-people engagement.
Taking the case of expertise, for example, the McKinsey Global Institute analyzed that the number of hours of work being automated replaced by one million full-time man-hours was 569 and the number of hours worked was increased to 2293. This shows that knowledge workers still have Strong competitiveness. "And some manual work, such as drivers, builders, etc., is most likely to be replaced by machines or automation," Hua said.
In the face of the new situation, how should China respond to maintain the sound and rapid development of the digital economy? Hua Qiangsen put forward four propositions: first, to provide training for the labor force to cope with changes in the labor market; secondly, to expand the digital economy and expand the scope of participation; Third, continue to build infrastructure to support the flow of globalization to stimulate global demand; Fourth, strictly adhere to the principle of global governance optimization.