On January 5, a notice from the Indian General Administration of Safeguards announced preliminary findings on the safeguards for PV modules and suggested that the Indian government impose a 70% defensiveness on photovoltaic cells (whether encapsulated or not) entering India until the final result is finalized Tariff as an interim measure of protection for a period of 200 days.
'India's' Solar Energy Story' is based on panels from China and previous tariffs that if implemented will mean the end of a record low tariff in 2017. '' BNP analysis Vandana Gombar said.
There is also no lack of doubts about the government's move in India, while India's Financial Express said although some local PV manufacturers have expressed their support for the proposal, other manufacturers think it will seriously undermine the local manufacturers outside the special economic zone Bridge to India, the consultancy, also pointed out in the report that anti-dumping will bring huge uncertainty to the entire solar energy industry in India, affecting all stakeholders in the entire industry chain, under construction and in planning project.
In recent years, with the strong economic development, India's new energy market is attracting more and more attention.The Indian government has an ambitious plan for new solar-based energy, but in the short term, India seems We are setting ourselves up for this.
India's new energy market has great potential
"India is an exciting market." Ashish Sethia, Head of Research for Asia Pacific at the BNEF at the BNP Future Energy Asia Pacific Summit in Shanghai on November 28, 2017, said: 'Demand for electricity continues to grow, While renewable energy is cheap, there are many people who see India as the next China, though that may not be right, but it is also a good comparison. '
Data show that India's GDP in 2016 was 2.2574 trillion U.S. dollars, with a population even reaching 1.324 billion. "India's GDP accounts for about a quarter of China's total GDP per capita is about 1/5 and 1/6, but the total population But relatively close to China. "Sethia said:" India also has significant room for growth in terms of GDP, GDP per capita and per capita electricity demand. "
The transformation of energy structure in developed countries is often accompanied by the elimination of traditional energy sources, and in India, the deployment of new energy sources can be synchronized with the growth of electricity demand.Li Boqiang, president of China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, interviewed in the 21st century Economic Reporter said India, like China, has the most potential feature in India's new energy market, but in his view, India is still in a phase of rapid development and low per capita consumption. The sustained economic growth can effectively stimulate energy demand , Its market potential is clearly better than the developed countries.
"India is the only one of the major economies in the world today that we believe is the electricity demand to maintain an annual growth rate of 4% -5% in the next 25-30 years." According to Sethia, India had a cumulative installed capacity of 320GW in 2016, of which Coal accounts for 59% of the total, with 9% for new energy and 3% for large-scale PV power plants. The BNEF predicts that by 2040 India's cumulative installed capacity will increase to 1471GW, with the share of coal falling to 17% Accounting for 36%, small PV and wind power will account for 9% and 13% respectively.
However, India's weak industrial base and low level of economic development are also restricting the production capacity of its new energy equipment, which provides a broad basis for Chinese enterprises in relevant fields to enter the Indian market. All kinds of problems, "said Lin Boqiang." But overall, demand for China's renewable energy equipment is still high. "
Although the Indian government attaches great importance to the development of renewable energy, Lin Bo-keung believes that India's current system has another disadvantageous side to the development of new energy: its government is unable to provide strong subsidies for new energy development and other support. 'India and China are different , The Chinese government can concentrate on major events but India can not do so and it mainly has more forms of market-oriented cooperation among enterprises. "Lin Bo-keung said: 'Although the space is huge, it must be relatively patient in the Indian market.'
Zou Xiyuan, GCL Chief Executive Officer Jan. 9 Similarly to 21st Century Business Herald reporter, India pointed out that India's financial strength is not as strong as that of China. There is no doubt that there is a gap between China's promotion of new energy sources and China. In addition, Another phenomenon is the price is generally depressed.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance Climatescope data show that in 2016 the global average real-time electricity price, retail electricity price, residential electricity, commercial electricity, industrial electricity prices were 50.42, 118.72, 112.37, 138.97, 115.41 US dollars / MWh respectively Respectively, lower than the global average of 42.33, 97.92, 77.23, 116.12 and 100.4 US $ / MWh, respectively, whereas in general, the market with higher electricity prices will have greater impact on the development and deployment of clean energy due to the cost advantage of clean energy The more attractive.
However, compared with China, India also has its own advantages, first of all, India's overall planning is more reasonable.According to the original introduction of Zouxiu, India will often be the first site planning and early advance high-voltage lines and other infrastructure, thus avoiding some Internet In addition, labor costs in India are also lower than those in China. "Nowadays, workers in India are on average about 800-900 RMB a month, which is actually much cheaper than China in many installation and construction work 'Zou Xi said the original.
PV 'double reverse' will be a double-edged sword
Trina Solar Asia Pacific Middle East Helena Li, president of module sales on January 10 21st Century Business Herald reporter said that the current global solar industry is rapidly growing, the vast majority of the market is expected to realize the same price in 2020. In Li's view, India will also continue to be one of the most important growth markets in the region with the launch of several large-scale photovoltaic projects.
In recent years, the Indian government has paid great attention to the development of clean energy and its solar energy accounts for 100GW in its plan to achieve 175GW of clean energy installed capacity by 2022. Many analysts pointed out that the high-cost imported photovoltaic module from China is valid in India Reduce the cost of solar energy to complete the planning of the PV installed capacity of the key.
According to the report of Bridge of India, imported PV modules have a 89% market share in India in fiscal year 2016-2017, of which, China PV module market share has reached 79% due to the price being about 10% lower than that of local manufacturers. According to the report If not, the Indian government had activated the DCR mechanism in 2010 and required solar PV power stations to purchase a certain percentage of their local PV modules during the construction. The imported PV modules have a market share of 95% or higher.
This also led to some dissatisfaction with local PV manufacturers in India in July 2017, the relevant departments in India began to accept the Indian Solar Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) submitted to the photovoltaic cells and components of the anti-dumping investigation petition December 19, 2017, ISMA On behalf of five local PV companies in India, they applied for the implementation of safeguard tariffs on imported PV to protect their local industries On January 5, 2018, the General Administration of Safeguards of India released the preliminary findings that the increase in imported PV products and the serious PV industry suffered in India There is a direct correlation between 'damage'.
However, the Bridge of Bridges believes that the key issue for local PV companies in India is the lack of core technologies and raw materials. "Most of them are only secondary performance products with high prices and technology and raw materials are totally imported." The key question for this industry is whether the local or other manufacturers will use the opportunities offered by the tariffs to make investments to create a prosperous and competitive module manufacturing industry in India.Whether the scale, technology Or operational capacity, there is still a huge gap between Indian and Chinese manufacturers.
'Double-reverse' on the Indian PV enterprises in the world to what extent there is doubt, but considering China's PV close to 80% of the market share, which hit the Indian solar plan is obvious.Recently, the Indian media Quartz has written that, after a relatively "stagnant" 2017, there are already more than 4,000MW projects available for bidding at the beginning of 2018, and the Indian solar energy industry is expected to pick up in 2018. In response, Zou Xiyuan believes that India The relative stagnation of solar power in 2017 is mainly due to manufacturers' concerns about the 'double reverse' survey results.
In response, Trunk Solar Chief Brand Officer Yang Xiaozhong January 11 interviewed 21st Century Business Herald reported that the Indian government attaches importance to photovoltaic manufacturing and applications, is conducive to the sustainable development of Indian economy and society, but the Chinese PV industry in the manufacture and application of Are in a leading position, India's ambitious plan and goal of PV development is difficult without the participation of China's photovoltaic industry to achieve the situation. 'Anti-dumping duties levied is a double-edged sword, the Chinese PV companies will hurt, it will also hurt India's local applications End enterprise, including installing enterprise. 'He said.
