From 2018 onwards, the benchmark on-grid tariffs for newly-built fully distributed Internet PV power plants in resource areas of one to three categories have been adjusted to 0.55 yuan, 0.65 yuan and 0.75 yuan per kWh, respectively, down 0.1 yuan from 2017, PV project subsidy cut 0.05 yuan per kWh electricity price, that is 0.37 yuan per kilowatt-hour subsidy Subsidy reduction is undoubtedly give yield just to meet the investment requirements of photovoltaic power station another hit, then, how to ensure the return on investment of distributed photovoltaic projects once again To meet the investment requirements ?! The only one answer is that forcing costs down.
The cost of a distributed PV power plant mainly includes components, installation costs, electrical equipment, auxiliary materials and development costs, etc. The average cost of components is about 45%, while that of installation and development is 14% and 8% respectively Compared with the centralized photovoltaic power plant, the distributed power plant can greatly reduce the electrical cost due to the access to the low-voltage power grid. Photovoltaic from the 'subsidy-driven' market to the 'technology-driven' market changes, prompting the cost of photovoltaic systems to decline. At present, China's PV module costs To 3 yuan / watt, a two-year decline of 23.8%; the price of photovoltaic systems has dropped to less than 6 yuan / watt level.
The next three years, the cost of photovoltaic modules will become the most important contribution to reducing the cost of photovoltaic systems. Photovoltaic modules account for about 45% of system costs, BOS costs account for about 40% of system costs. BOS cost reduction space is limited, involving product labor (Such as cables, electrical equipment, etc.) is relatively rigid, do not have a substantial decline in the conditions to reduce the system's responsibility to fall in the cost of photovoltaic modules, PV modules can reduce the production cost by raising the level of technology, but also can improve the battery conversion efficiency , So as to dilute the unit cost.Power down the PV module to reduce the cost of electricity, but the cost reduction requires the joint efforts of all sectors of the industry chain, such as the silicon from polycrystalline to single crystal transition; the use of electronic grade polysilicon; the development of efficient cell, Reduce silver paste; photovoltaic system tracker applications, build smart components and more.
Component prices will become the key to reducing system costs. The tax-inclusive component price is currently around 2.8 yuan / W (polycrystalline), accounting for more than 50%, but also a key part of the projected future cost of the system. In the following four aspects: First, the conversion efficiency of components is improved, it is estimated that during the 13th FYP, the absolute efficiency of crystalline silicon PV modules will be maintained at 0.2-0.5% per year. Second, the improvement of silicon utilization, such as multi-wire cutting Technological advances will reduce wafer thickness from about 140 microns to about 120 microns in 2015. Diamond wire cutting will reach wafer thicknesses of about 100 microns by 2020. Diamond wire cut is expected to account for monocrystalline and polysilicon cutting markets by 2020 80% and 20%; Third, the cost and price of silicon material decline, the new silicon material production technology such as polysilicon fluidized bed (FBR) method with low cost advantages, up to 10 US dollars / kg cost is expected to 2020 Accounting for 30-40% of the market share, the overall 2015-2020 grain silicon cost reduction rate of more than 40%; Fourth, technological progress in other processes, such as reducing the amount of silver, to improve the size of ingot furnace, Line to improve screen printing technology.
According to the survey of domestic and foreign institutions and domestic leading enterprises, the price of crystalline silicon modules in 2018 and 2020 is expected to drop to 2.5 yuan / W and 2.1 yuan / W respectively. After 2020, due to the improvement of component efficiency, there is still some cost reduction space , Component prices are expected to reach 2 yuan / W. In addition, the photovoltaic inverter system to intelligent transition, string and centralized inverter will coexist, string inverter prices expected from 2017 0.35 yuan / Watt drop to 0.20 yuan / watt in 2020, the centralized inverter is expected to drop from 0.25 yuan / watt in 2017 to 0.10-0.15 yuan / watt in 2020. Photovoltaic power station communication and monitoring system is gradually transformed from selling products to selling services , The estimated initial investment in communications and monitoring for 2017-2020 can be reduced by 0.2-0.3 yuan / W. The cost of other equipment such as junction boxes and combiner boxes, etc., and the cost of wiring are expected to fall as electronic technologies and materials are improved. About 0.1 yuan / W. Operation and maintenance system will be in the application of the intuitive and convenient, data acquisition and analysis accuracy and timeliness and remote maintenance and management aspects of more improvement and development, the cost will also have Decline to a certain extent OS prices lower space is currently BOS tax price is about 2 yuan / W. BOS, inverter although there is a slight decline in space, but the proportion has been smaller, the overall impact is not big.Design, stent, cement-based , Cable, bridge, combiner box, lightning protection and grounding, grid counters, secondary monitoring equipment and other prices do not have a substantial decline in space.Project road (or preliminary work), step-up equipment, outside the cost difference between the various projects Large, the price does not have a substantial decline in space.Rail roof costs are rising, due to the growing scarcity of high-quality roof, the cost will continue to rise.The future decline in roofing costs need to vigorously promote the roof owner investment model.
Distributed Photovoltaic power parity network: some areas have been achieved. Distributed PV BOS only 1.5 yuan / W, the current 2.8 yuan / W component prices and 15-18% EPC gross margin under the system price of about 5-5.3 yuan / W. The distributed system price of PV at component prices of 2 yuan / W and 15% EPC is about 4.1 yuan / W. Under the current system cost, some users have higher electricity prices and the areas with better irradiation have been realized In the case of distributed PV projects in Shanghai, without any subsidies or local subsidies, under the system price of 5 yuan / W, if the user-side weighted electricity price is 0.9 yuan / kWh, the proportion of spontaneous self-use is 83% electricity tariff discount rate of 10%, Shanghai 'spontaneous use, I Power Internet' roof distribution project has been able to achieve more than 9% of the IRR, the user-side parity Internet has been achieved.
