On January 5, the announcement of the General Administration of Safeguards of India announced the preliminary findings on the safeguards for PV modules and recommended that the Indian government impose a moratorium on photovoltaic cells (whether encapsulated or not) entering China or Malaysia entering India before the final result is determined As much as 70% of the 200-day defensive tariffs are used as temporary safeguard measures. It can be said that various sectors of the community have been talking about this and have repeatedly speculated on the intention behind this move.
'Double reverse' will not save the country's PV industry, a recognition that has been well documented in Europe (and Germany in particular) and the United States, but India is still "on its own" to promote safeguards on PV modules , The first view is that this is to protect India's own photovoltaic industry is a commercial-based government behavior; the second view is that this is in the Modi government can not finish the scheduled photovoltaic targets whistle, leaving its In the future can not be completed photovoltaic power plants scheduled to build the room for maneuver.
The rationale behind the first argument is that the proposal to levy a defense tax was proposed by the Indian Photovoltaic Manufacturers Association (ISMA) on December 5, 2017, with ISMA representing five Indian PV manufacturers, Mondera Solar PV, Indian Solar, Jupiter Solar Power, Websol Energy Systems and Helios Optoelectronics, all of which make up more than 50% of total PV production in India.
Nonetheless, the five companies are also not optimistic about the state of production.According to the Indian Safeguards Administration released data show that from 2014 to 2015, India's domestic photovoltaic industry market share of 14%, and from 2017 to 2018 down To 10% .Data from relevant industries in India also confirmed that at present, the installed capacity of homemade solar cells in India is about 1,386 MW. In terms of total solar power generation capacity, over 75% rely on Chinese-made batteries, 15% rely on US products, while the rest are Rely on domestic products, that is, the above five companies, occupy India's market share of only 5%.
In that sense, PV manufacturers in India have indeed come to the point where they have to "go back to the top" and apply for 'state protection' and protection.
However, those who support the second view do not think so. The precedents in Europe and the United States prove that whether India is 'double reverse' or imposing defensive tariffs may 'save' India's photovoltaic industry in a short period of time, It is not good for India's government to develop new energy targets and ordinary consumers. In particular, it is not conducive to the goal of 100GW PV power plant built by Indian Prime Minister Modi in 2020 (now adjusted to 2022).
According to a survey conducted by Bridge to India's consulting firm, Modi's slogan is lacking in terms of implementation in India and the most optimistic scenario is the completion of 70 GW of installed capacity by 2020. In fact, the data show that India's fiscal 2015 solar energy With installed capacity of 2.9 GW and 5.8 GW in FY 2016. If the target of 100 GW is to be achieved, the installed capacity needs to increase by more than 16 times. This is simply 'unacceptable' to India's weak power transmission infrastructure. The weight.
But perhaps this is the effect Modi's government wants, because it can serve as Moody's 'fig leaf'. Judging from the progress of the PV power plant construction in India, the implementation of construction conditions is not as simple as shouting slogans, especially for defensive purposes Tariff will lead to reduced imports, the domestic production capacity is not enough to meet the needs of installed capacity consequences, but also makes the Modi government's photovoltaic targets difficult to achieve.This has become a natural excuse: 'The original goal can be achieved, but capacity and not There is no other way to do that.
Holders of this view argue that the most immediate evidence is that U.S. products that make up 15% of the market share are not covered by defensive taxes.
It is undeniable that no one can correctly judge whether these two views are correct or not. However, it is undeniable that once the 70% defensive tariffs levied on temporary assistance are implemented, it will not only affect China , Malaysia's photovoltaic industry caused heavy losses, research its fundamental, is not conducive to the long-term development of photovoltaic industry in India.
