Speaking at an industry forum, Jiang Bing, chairman of State Grid Electric Vehicle Services Co., Ltd., said that EVs will once again change the world. EVALUATION OF THE EV MARKET IN THE FUTURE OF NEW ENERGY DEVELOPMENT TO 2022 Jiang Bing proposes the following four Point of view, he called 'four gray rhinos'.
Gray rhinoceros: electric car to achieve 'oil and electricity parity'
1, according to the composition of the estimated cost of electric vehicles, power battery costs dropped to 100 US dollars / kWh, the electric car will be the purchase price of traditional fuel trucks.
2, the cost of power lithium battery system is 'oil price' key.
3, each doubling of total shipments, solar cell prices reduced by about 20%.
4, According to the trend of power lithium battery shipments forecast, by 2023, the price of power battery will drop to 0.6-0.7 / W, about 100 US dollars / kWh, the electric car will achieve absolute 'oil price'.
Gray Rhino II: Photovoltaic power generation will become the cheapest energy
1, New energy such as solar power generation is intermittent and fluctuating, while the electric car is charged with strong flexibility and controllability, which can well adapt to consume clean energy and realize new energy vehicles to charge new energy sources.
2. According to the statistics of China PV Industry Association, from 2007 to 2017, the market prices of PV modules and inverters decreased by about 92% respectively.
3, in fact, according to the current trend, 2022 photovoltaic electricity costs can be reduced to 0.4 / kWh.
Gray rhinoceros three: distributed energy storage to achieve commercial applications
1, with the progress of energy storage technology, the decline in battery costs and the improvement of the electricity market, distributed energy storage is expected to be commercialized around 2022. Electric vehicle battery is the lowest cost energy storage device.
Gray rhinoceros IV: 5G network deployment will be basically completed
1, 5G is the last constraint on the development of electric vehicles, which will promote the electric car to complete the gorgeous leap from 'Nokia' to 'Apple'.
2, 5G network has a very high rate, downlink rate of more than 20Gbps, uplink rate of more than 10Gbps. Network delay 1ms, and has 100 million connections / sq km connection density, hundreds of billions of connections.
He pointed out that the future of energy, the underlying clean-up, distributed, storage, Internet of things, big data are all factors to be considered.Electric car is the future of energy systems is an important basic unit, charging pile is a The important base port is also the coupler and key hardware for connecting the two terahertz markets of new energy sources and electric vehicles.
He said that by 2030, the number of electric vehicles will reach 100 million and the power of vehicle-mounted power batteries will exceed 1 billion kilowatts, equivalent to 50 Three Gorges hydropower stations. In 2040, the number of electric vehicles will reach 200 million. The power of vehicle- Will be more than 2 billion kilowatts, equivalent to 100 Three Gorges power station.If you consider retiring power batteries, 2030 power battery power will increase 200 million kilowatts.
There is no suspense for turning the power of cars and more and more mobile machines from fuel to electricity, which if combined with renewable energy may benefit the society to an unimaginable extent, a huge system that affects the whole world and affects the future At present, everything is still a starting point, need to take precautions, make the top design, step by step.
