IHS Markit said recently that driven by rising consumption and strong industrial production growth, global chemical demand is expected to increase in 2018 and chemical production in various regions of the world will also increase simultaneously. The global chemical industry is expected to show steady growth The agency predicts global GDP growth of 3.2% in 2018, comparable to the rate of growth in 2017 and up from 2.5% in 2016.
Yield growth dazzling
Kevin Swift, chief economist at the ACC, said global chemical production is expected to grow by 3.2% by 2018, up from 2.7% growth last year, while developing countries in Asia Pacific and Africa As well as the Middle East will show dazzling chemicals production growth.In addition, benefiting from the development of shale resources, North American chemical production will also be strong growth.
ACC predicts that U.S. chemical production will increase in 2017 despite a massive shutdown of U.S. chemical production units in the months of August and September last year due to Hurricane Harvey in the course of the year and is expected to experience even more dramatic growth in 2018 and 2019. According to the current Statistics estimate that US chemical production (excluding pharmaceuticals) will increase by 0.8% in 2017, 3.7% in 2018 and 3.9% in 2019. Swift states: 'The U.S. chemical industry is rising simultaneously with the world. Has come out of the woods, business investment is on the rise, and oil and gas production in the United States is rebounding, all of which will lay the foundation for further development, expansion and capital investment in the future. "
Martha Moore, ACC's senior manager for economy and policy, believes the majority of US chemicals will grow much more rapidly than in the past 20 years, and as more new chemicals projects come on line and In the context of the good US and global economy, demand for chemicals is expected to accelerate dramatically, which will not only increase the output of basic chemicals, but also drive the demand for specialty chemicals.
EU outlook is optimistic
The European chemical outlook is equally positive, with the European Chemicals Council (Cefic) saying EU chemical production is estimated to have risen 3% in 2017, driven by the increase in major consumer demand, and it is expected that EU chemical production will continue to grow by 2018, but the rate of increase Slowed to about 2%.
Marco Mensink, Cefic, said: "The kinetic energy of the EU's chemical industry for maximum production is continuing to increase, which not only contributes to economic growth but also promotes technological innovation." According to the German Chemical Industry Association (VCI) The pharmaceutical industry performed exceptionally strong with a 2.5% increase in chemical production VCI expects German chemical production to increase by 2% by 2018, chemical prices by 1% and industry-wide sales by 3% and full-year sales revenue may For the first time reached 200 billion euros.
Cefic said the European chemical industry is regaining confidence following the economic recovery, with the European chemical industry outlook still positive in 2018 according to Cefic figures but due to rising energy and raw material prices and rising carbon costs in the EU ETS, The chemical industry in the region still has the risk of investment outflows.
At the end of last year, BASF chairman and VCI president Kurt Bock said: 'At present, industrial production in Germany still maintains a high momentum and we are confident that the upward trend of German chemical industry will continue into next year. In addition, the upward trend of the chemical industry in Europe will also Continue and will further boost the export business, however, the political changes still exist and we need to be prepared for sustained turmoil. "
Trade market is good
The world petrochemical export markets are improving, especially in Asia and Latin America, and are helping to absorb the U.S. chemical production growth and will usher in a rebound in global trade.According to relevant statistics, it is estimated that petrochemical producers in North America, between the end of 2016 and the end of 2019, Production capacity will increase by about 10 million tons / year, and most of the new capacity will be gradually put into use from now to mid-2019.
Mark Eramo, vice president of oil markets, midstream, downstream and chemicals at IHS Markit, said the near-term outlook for the petrochemicals market remains solid unless it is severely disrupted by economic and energy fundamentals and the global economy is heating up Demand for petrochemicals continues to grow, and in some markets it may even face the current undercapacity challenge, and the current demand rise cycle will evolve into a 'super cycle' if the demand spikes or the supply shorts.