In 2017, the chemical market showed a 'V' trend, mainly due to the rational price pullback in January-May due to overrun in the market in 2016. In June, with the increasingly stringent environmental inspection and the rising crude oil market, the market The trend opened the up channel, triumphing all the way.Overall, the chemical market is still the main theme of rising throughout the year.
The strong performance of international crude oil in 2017 is undoubtedly one of the important factors for boosting market confidence, especially in the fourth quarter, and on September 25, Turkey threatened to cut off the oil pipelines leading to other areas in Iraq's Kurdistan region, In November, the Keystone oil pipeline leading to the oil storage hub of the US Midwest was closed due to leakages. Imports from Canada decreased. Crude oil in Europe and the United States rose to its highest level in two years. At the end of the year, cloth Renter crude oil is standing at a high of 67 US dollars / barrel in the crude oil cost support, a lot of downstream chemical products rose last year on the basis of this year is still high turbulence, or even hit a new high.
Environmental inspection is one of the key words throughout the chemical market throughout 2017. During the year, a total of 4 Central Environmental Protection Inspectors were launched in the country. In addition, in order to achieve the stated objective of the "Air Pollution Prevention and Control Plan of Action," the MEP has targeted 2 + 26 cities A total of two rounds of environmental protection inspections were arranged with a total of five rounds of 70 days in the first phase (2017.9.1 ~ 11.9) and 140 rounds of 10 rounds in the second phase (11.10 ~ 2018.3.29) Check the intensity of the more stringent, part of the high pollution and high energy consumption of chemical products started to be restricted, the supply side tightened to push up the market price.With this year's highest increase of hydrogen peroxide, for example, the raw material hydrogen mainly from chlor-alkali enterprises, and chlor-alkali Due to the environmental impact of large-scale production reduction, leading to inadequate hydrogen supply to some of the hydrogen peroxide units, started significantly reduced, the spot cash flow is very small, combined with downstream papermaking, printing and dyeing and caprolactam device overall higher load, the market demand increases, the fundamentals favorable support The price went up by 154.7%. Except for hydrogen peroxide, the prices of epichlorohydrin, hydrofluoric acid, chloroacetic acid and coal tar products were also affected by environmental factors and prices rose during the year Pieces were 104.1%, 83.6%, 64.8% and 61.3%.
In winter, natural gas shortage further boosts the market.In order to improve the air quality, many regions have taken measures to change coal gas, with the advent of winter, increasing demand for heating, resulting in natural gas shortage, the market supply is very scarce, the urea market affected More.It is reported that in winter, gas-sensitive urea enterprises in Sichuan and Chongqing large area parking, the market flow of scarce resources, coupled with the manufacturer inventory low, the market price rose rapidly, the end of the year to close at 2,070 yuan / tonne high, a total increase of 25.5%.
Sudden and major events for the chemical market impact is not small .Through the end of August, Hurricane Harvey landed in the United States Gulf of Mexico, the local oil and refining industry caused a huge impact, accounting for about one-third of US chemical products production capacity suspension Production, the international market supply shortages caused the domestic product price changes.In this one, MDI products are very obvious impact, created a hot market from August to September.Custus North America on August 31 announced due to Hurricane Harvey Devices encountered force majeure, coupled with Japan's Tosoh unit shut down on September 10, Kumho Mitsui said the sharp drop in demand for MDI is expected to continue until March 2018, the international supply is in a critical situation, the domestic manufacturers to increase export efforts.Customs data show that, From August to September this year, the export volume of polymerized MDI was 92,800 tons, an increase of 37.5% over the 675,000 tons of the same period of last year. As a result, the domestic supply declined and led the price to rise to 43,000 yuan / tonne. Other products such as acrylic series were also affected The impact of hurricanes to varying degrees and short-term higher.
But the decline of products in 2017 accounted for less than last year rose more than 200% of the star product butadiene hit back to its original shape this year, basically back to the level before the sharp rise in June 2016, the end of the year to close at 9,950 yuan / ton, down 49.5% . Looking at the full year trend, the market decline from February to May the most fierce.Because of the butadiene market uprising early, downstream buyers have bullied under the expected replenishment of inventory, resulting in sufficient inventory of users, combined with the contradiction between high raw materials Mentality, the overall demand follow-up slow, butadiene demand side showing the disadvantaged manufacturers more difficult to ship, the price is difficult to maintain the virtual high, down since February.In addition, the terminal tire companies by environmental inspection and other factors started to be restricted, and further Downstream market trend. Downstream synthetic rubber followed down, according to statistics, butadiene rubber and styrene butadiene rubber fell 41.0% and 32.8% respectively.
Taken together, although the 2016 rally resulted in a rational pullback in 2017, the market opened the prelude to V-reversal in mid-May under the resonance of multiple factors such as crude oil and environmental protection. After that, Triumphantly, eventually closing at 5264. Market outlook, Saudi Arabia and Russia at the OPEC meeting held in Vienna on November 30 promised to extend production cuts, the supply side of the crude oil market has provided good support, investment banks such as Goldman Sachs, UBS have raised Crude oil expected price.But the United States shale oil exploitation may make OPEC's efforts to rebalance the crude oil market to a bubble, the crude oil market is still expected to be good in 2018, however, continue to rise on the red space is very small, the annual international crude oil prices may be 45- 70 US dollars / barrel interval within the operation.
On the supply side, the environmental inspections carried out in full swing in 2017. On January 1, 2018, the People's Republic of China Environmental Protection Tax Law will be formally implemented and the impact of environmental factors will continue to be fermented. Some of the installations will continue to limit production or stop production. The supply side of the market Tightening situation is difficult to alleviate in the short term.
In addition, it is noteworthy that in 2017 large-scale projects blossom everywhere, Zhejiang Petrochemical 40 million tons / year integration project and the constant force of 20 million tons / year refining and chemical integration project has entered the construction and installation phase, Million tons of ethylene project started groundbreaking at the end of the year, in addition to Shenghong 16 million tons / year refining and chemical integration, Sinochem Quanzhou 100 tons / year of ethylene and refinery expansion or other projects proposed or already under construction, although in 2018 It is very unlikely that it will be put into production. However, it is foreseeable that the production capacity of olefins, aromatics and other products in China will increase substantially in the next few years. With the increase of domestic supply, the self-sufficiency rate of products with greater import dependence will increase substantially.
On the demand side, the experts from the State Information Center Department of Economic Forecasting believe that in 2017 China's economy as a whole will show a favorable mid-to-east trend. It is estimated that the annual GDP growth will be around 6.8%, and the demand for the chemical market will be more robust. Overall, In 2018, the chemical market is still in good condition. There may still be room for growth at the beginning of the year. However, due to the higher market position, we should pay attention to the risk of a dip.