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At present, the subsidies for new energy vehicles in our country have been gradually withdrawn, and for the new-energy automobile enterprises, the subsidy decline means that the new energy vehicles are even more sensitive to the cost of the batteries. In fact, in the "Medium- and Long-Term Development Plan for the Automobile Industry" By 2020, the annual production and sales of new energy vehicles will reach 2 million units, and the specific energy of power battery units will reach 300 W / kg, striving to achieve 350 W / kg, and the system will strive to achieve 260 W / kg of specific energy, down to 1 yuan / watt or less. 'But whether the above goals can be achieved, the recent period of the industry triggered a heated debate. China Association of Automotive Engineers Yan Jianlai, deputy secretary-general pointed out that with the international lithium ore and other raw materials prices soaring crazy, power battery Cost reduction has greater resistance, the cost dropped to 1 yuan / watt in 2020 when little hope.
■ five-year price drop Liu Cheng
Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Ministry spokesman Zheng Lixin said that as China has become the world's largest producer of power battery, the competitiveness of China's battery companies have also greatly enhanced, compared with 2012, China's power cell energy density increased by 1.7 times the price It dropped by 60%.
The same is true of the foreign battery industry.Data show that the battery prices of Japanese and Korean companies have dropped from 600 to 800 US dollars / kWh in 2010 (about 3.9 to 5.2 yuan / Watt) to the current 150 to 200 US dollars / According to Prabhakar Patil, chief executive officer of LG Chem Battery Division, most battery electric vehicles cost about US $ 400 / kWh (about RMB2.6 / kWh) / Watt), Tesla is 240 US dollars / kWh (about 1.56 yuan / Watt).
It is well-known that the high price is one of the important factors restricting the new energy vehicles to be further accepted and accepted by consumers. Therefore, how to reduce the cost of power battery occupying more than 50% of the manufacturing cost of vehicles is the most important issue.However, For new energy vehicles, the current price of power batteries is difficult for them to compete with traditional fuel-efficient cars at a competitive price. "Battery costs are among the most talked-about issues in the new energy automotive industry. 'Chinese Academy of Sciences, Tsinghua University Automotive Engineering Professor Ouyang Minggao pointed out that looking at the world, China, the United States and Europe in the battery system, the average price per kilowatt-hour goals were 1000 yuan, 100 dollars and 100 euros, the horizontal comparison, it is clear that China's 1,000 yuan / KWh target price is high, the more desirable goal should be $ 100 / kWh.
■ Lithium, cobalt and other raw materials soaring price dependence on foreign high
As Yan Jianlai said, due to the demand for new energy and new materials industries, downstream replenishment and fund-side stockpiling and other factors, some metal prices have risen more than expected.In 2017, the new energy vehicles demand for lithium margins more than the global marginal pull The increase in lithium ore, the price of lithium carbonate remains strong. At the same time, tungsten, titanium and antimony prices also have varying degrees of rise.Data show that due to mineral reserves and capacity constraints, China is heavily dependent on lithium Resources, of which 70% need to be imported from overseas.
In addition to lithium ores, the demand for cobalt ore by our country's electric car manufacturers has also increased substantially, resulting in the price increase of cobalt ore far behind other metal mines in 2017. As of December 25 last year, metal Cobalt rose as high as 97.35%, setting the highest price record since 2001. Like lithium ore, cobalt reserves in China account for only 1% of the global total, cobalt ore accounts for 5% of global production capacity, cobalt material is the same Seriously dependent on imports, and dependence on more than 90%.
Based on this, Jiangsu Changshu Hezhong Environmental Protection Institute of Science and Technology Sha Yongkang a burst of blood pointed out: 'Due to a serious lack of resources, China's power battery raw material prices depend on the international supply prices, China's auto companies say not .. Plus the battery business Labor costs and hardware equipment prices are soaring in recent years, power battery cost reduction is very difficult.
According to a power battery company in Jiangsu responsible person revealed that by upgrading technology and equipment, large-scale production and the upstream raw material suppliers and a series of measures such as price hikes this year, product prices fell more than 25%, but by the upstream cobalt, lithium and other raw materials rose Impact, the cost increased at least 15%, which means that profits have decreased.
■ more cost reduction is king
Interestingly, some battery companies are full of confidence when discussing the target of lowering the battery cost in 2020 to below 1 yuan / watt as proposed in the "Medium-term and Long-term Development Plan for the Automotive Industry."
At the Fourth China Congress held earlier, Xu Xiaoming, general manager of Anchi Technology, put forward: '1 yuan / watt of the goal, if not including tax, do not have to be able to achieve by 2020, if the tax, the price is about 1.17 Yuan / watt. 'Lihua Jun, general manager of Zhenhua New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. even believes that not only the cost can reach 1 yuan / watt, the price may be reduced to 1 yuan / watt level.
The drop in battery costs is the only way to push forward the development of new energy vehicles. In recent years, with the increase in battery energy density and the substantial increase in output and demand, the large initial R & D costs have been diluted and the economies of scale are becoming increasingly prominent. In the national new energy vehicles innovation project team leader Wang Binggang view, by 2020 China's battery cost dropped to 1 yuan / watt when no problem.
As for raw material prices and other factors, Wang Binggang bluntly, the global reserves of lithium ore and other raw materials is very rich, the demand for electric vehicles is not enough to cause serious scarcity of resources problems.Recently, there are securities investment analysts believe that the global lithium, cobalt, etc. Mining has been a serious over-investment situation, the price this year, or will show a more stable development trend.
However, the current reached a general consensus is that only when the cost of power battery unit dropped to 100 US dollars / kWh, the new energy vehicles can be truly large-scale promotion use.Bucker battery CTO Luo Zhaojun admitted that in order to achieve international standards Of the product competitiveness, 0.6 ~ 0.8 yuan / watt when the battery cost is more ideal.In response, Sha Yongkang and Wang Binggang suggested that by increasing the battery life cycle, increasing the battery recycling and utilization of the ladder to expand the scale effect and improve the quality Rate and other ways to promote lower battery costs.
