 At this point in time, if we make a forecast from the bottom up, there are two points: First, it is easier to forecast the three-year period than the one-year period forecast. Second, Forecasting is easier than forecasting the investment. Let's start with the easier things. What is the picture of the entire industry in the next three years? Since I was a man of manufacturing origin, one of our most important topics in the 19 th National Congress was to create a nation, so I started with the manufacturing industry , Basically from three dimensions: the first dimension from the manufacturing perspective of the future opportunities, the second dimension from the entire manufacturing downstream, is from a hardware perspective about the future opportunities.The third is from the entire TMT From the perspective of the future we can see the opportunity. Manufacturing industry In the past 5-8 years basically there is an industry, if you configure the industry, your income will be in the market a very high ranking, that is the entire electronic module industry.Gift out a cell phone, almost all of the modules now The world's first and second are Chinese, so we must judge the trend of the megatrends and predict the nature of the change and the significance of the change at this year's Mid-term Strategy Conference. Short-term forecasts turn into transactions and medium-term changes become big data , Long term is actually a forecast of the trend.If you now turn around, in the past 5-8 years, all the electronic module company all over again, the rate of return is very good, I participated in the letter last week, communication seminar, the past four years A Share first place in 2013 when the market value of only a dozen billion, loss of several billion, the market value of 50 billion now, but also the module industry representatives in the future, when the module industry in China to do one of the best position, I think there will be three directions. The first direction is the module upstream (materials, equipment, chips), we may have in the past on the chip to give very high attention, because this is a big device, but I think everyone's research on the material industry is seriously less than When the downstream of each industry become Chinese enterprises, the material industry must have come into being, whether it is panel materials, module materials, semiconductor materials, 5G materials, you will find that with the future of 5G China The rise of many excellent companies will come together.Materials, equipment, chips in the past year continued performance or the equipment industry, because the equipment industry is easier to out of performance, card bit success, you can quickly make a profit to the past One of the best performing years is the Han's Laser. In the materials industry, I think everybody can attach great importance to it. In two parts, some of them are new materials such as graphene, silicon carbide, 3D printing, as tool-type materials to help various traditional materials Improve performance. The other part is the alternative of traditional materials. Their development in the military brewing, infiltration into the car, which began to shift to consumer electronics, I feel This trend has been seen very clearly. The critical point is when we need the most sensitive, as in 2013 to 2014 to see the new energy battery, the critical point came out, although the amount is not large, but the chain trend has emerged. The second direction, I have already said in Dalian this year, from the horizontal expansion of electronics, one is the integration of civil and military, one is the car parts. The night before a dinner, car gangster gathering, I found that people on the left is billions of net worth, The right is also a billion people net worth, one is in the two years ago, 170 million valuation of investment in intelligent cars, one is last year, the integration of civil and military graphene new materials, are the largest shareholder.Military and civilian integration is the greatest significance through the production relations The greatest significance of the automotive industry is that we see the world's top 100 auto parts, seven trillion of revenue, 95 are Europeans with the Japanese-based, only five are Chinese enterprises. Seven trillion should correspond to 1.5 trillion in profits and 20-30 trillion in market capitalization, and I believe the next five years should be able to replicate the path to the rise of China's manufacturing industry for smartphones, so this is the first level we talk about. The third opportunity in other smart hardware, smart phone era, Chinese enterprises should say that in constant chasing process, smart phones now do one of the highest in the world. The future you will see in other smart hardware, Chinese companies are not chased For example, when it comes to AR / VR, you will find that all Chinese enterprises are cooperating with international giants, which is totally different from the past. This is the first dimension to speak of. The second dimension stands in the entire hardware dimension and we still see three opportunities: First, the social purpose of the hardware, it should be the most essential thing on all our Internet, is social, so we can see the video-related technology is still the future from the downstream to see the most space-hungry, whether it is the current mobile phone I've been talking to people in the industry more than once, telling me that AR / VR has come to a critical point, and even talking about our traditional TV screen will not become a social portal. The so-called Internet education, Internet TV and Internet medical services from 2013 to 2015 are, in the end, only informatization of education, medical informationization and informationalization of TV content. They are not connected and socialized, so AR / VR Vipkid is just video interoperability, has 4 billion to 5 billion in revenue, and will grow faster, so to stand a high degree of understanding of the video. You only understand the video will know why This year, Haikang, Dahua, two security giants soar, because these companies stand in a higher dimension. Second, which industries do not match the production relations and productivity, the most typical is the car with the speaker of these two industries, backward production relations lead you to spend a very high price to buy some no innovation, no progress of the product, this is a very Important dimension. Third, in the future, what areas can turn hardware products into services, which is the second dimension that I want to talk about, and the whole point of view is in terms of hardware. The first two points are particularly important. The third dimension is the future from the TMT point of view we have to think about the future of the world is what? Now the hottest topic is about artificial intelligence, but I do not know if you ever wondered, artificial intelligence must come from the data, the data come from? This problem is not solved, the first floor did not cover well, first cover the second floor Floor, this thing will collapse.We want to discuss is the first layer of the problem, what is the future of the technology industry? In a word, accurate data age, the future of both ToC and ToB world are Is to get the data for artificial intelligence analysis, and then improve the overall business efficiency, change your business model. We have seen very clearly in the To C world. For example, in search of this industry, for example, the earliest search was that Microsoft did search-oriented technology and Google did not think search was a technical job. It should be a data work. One million people Search Tianfeng Securities, 200,000 people open this information, it should put this information in the first place, this is Google's practice, but not the nature of the search. What is the real search, such as the search days Wind Securities, If you are a college student is looking for a job, put the days of wind securities recruitment data to tell you, if you are investing, you may want to open an account, I put the account information on the first one.If you are an industry, You may want to go public, to raise funds, I will recommend to you our investment bank information, it is based on accurate data. So you see two companies in the future will be very cattle, one is today's headlines, because it has your precise data, it knows what you like to see the second is Sogou, it knows what you type every day This contains information that you do not know, so this time Baidu found no accurate data, because my data are generated from the search for this scene, and today's headlines come from every day you read the news, Sogou Is from every day you type, the scene generated by the dimension far more than search.So recently, Baidu to do one thing, voice free, free to get your data.Get data to become a business model, Amazon speakers is Because you get the data for your voice, he knows what you're buying. So in turn, we think, in our To C area, what is our demand? Eat, drink, food and clothing, education and medical, social, office, which is the earliest? Yes. What is the earliest behavior? You can master your accurate data, because the line is two things, where are you now, where are you going.Therefore, whether it is to share a bike trip, take a taxi, Uber, all the first is up, but In the future, I believe it will enter an era of accurate data in such fields as food, clothing, education, healthcare, and more unfortunately we will find that these accurate data are increasingly focused on the few Internet giants So it is a very big opportunity, but it is mostly monopolized by the internet giants. At the same time, in To B's field is full of opportunities, the future should have three technologies, the first is the Internet of things, the second is the video, the third is artificial intelligence. The first two are to get the data, artificial intelligence is to deal with the data These three data permutations and combinations combine to form instrumental techniques to help transform and upgrade industries, and in contrast, what did we hear about the Internet from 2013 to 2015? It's subversive, 2013-2015 The logic of the bull market is 'subversion + cross-industry mergers and acquisitions'. In the future, I think the first one is tools and help. The second is global M & A, especially in global manufacturing. I think this sign is very clear. So when these three technologies combined with business we have clearly see the unmanned supermarket, the ultimate goal of the unmanned supermarket is what we are in the open, open an APP, you can personally visit a certain trade Shop, you can order an order, can help single-store sales increased tens of times to several hundred times.Therefore, it has a camera and Internet of things, get accurate data, it knows what everyone wants, he than yourself Know what you want in the Internet of Things, industrial Internet of Things, in all walks of life, in transportation, in logistics, it will enter an era of precision data, and the important premise of accurate data is the Internet of Things and video , And Internet of Things and video important premise is 5G. We launched the 5G report in June last year, when you talked to people in the industry who thought they would be lower than expected because many of the patents are in the hands of Huawei and China and feel that foreign companies will not cooperate, but finally found 5G than expected Fast development.When an industry chain to meet everyone, users access the Internet 50 times faster, operators can earn more money, higher ARPU value, application vendors can make more applications to sell more money, mobile phones Manufacturers can change machines, parts manufacturers can sell higher unit price, everyone will be well, so 5G will only be higher than expected. So our current driverless is based on a bike's GPU budget, this must be unscientific , Because the communication technology is unstable, not fast enough, but the 5G era will go into the era of cloud computing. A huge remote computing center than a single CPU do not know how many times stronger, so I think in the To B world is the Internet of Things + video, video is important, 70% of the time the brain is dealing with the eyes to see things. These instrumental technologies, whether new materials, video, internet of things, or artificial intelligence, are helping traditional industries, so that's where we stand in the third dimension, which is where we think you can think hard, The logic of data, we can string all the things that happen in the future of the technology industry can understand, and you want to understand you will unswervingly configure some of the trends in the next three years.The above is what I stand for the entire industry A judgment of the future 3 years. If we turn to investing, in fact, we will eventually study the relationship between stock price and profit. We will firmly favor these white stocks at the end of last year because their valuations are too low. When you can not see anything clearly, I believe the underestimated value is king. Now we can still see many, many companies with a market value of 5 billion to 10 billion next year only 20 times. Therefore, the same token, what happened in the past year? The relative movement of the stock valuation, the previous White Horse ten times, 50 times the performance of the growth stocks, are now twenty times, glorified to the division, but after the division, you will find that there are still many companies, including my recent Companies looking at computers and the media are 20 times more valued, so when you can not see anything, you still believe in undeclared high-value investments that give rise to certainty. We see there are many 20 times more valuations in machinery, in environmental protection, in chemicals, in materials, in military industry, in medicine, in consumption, in electrical equipment, etc. It is very important and should therefore be left aside , In the end is the GEM, non-GEM, to grasp the performance of the company, the stock price is still related to the performance of the next phase of the stage, just as last year's stage, the White Horse stock valuation benchmark to bring the meeting today's purpose Also by inviting over 300 listed companies, we are patiently looking for 20x valuation next year.
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