Back in the past just in 2017, the traditional agricultural machinery market entered the glacial period, so that people in the industry marvel at it. In particular, the tractor market has experienced "two consecutive falls" for many years. In 2016, Still ', and the decline in 2017 was even more bleak than in 2016. The large tractor market contrarian in 2016, somewhat more than comfort for tractor companies, as a shine in the tractor market. 2017 tractor market fell across the board, is optimistic about the larger tractor market is more robust decline in China's tractor market has encountered the situation? 'Two or even' bottomed out? 2018 market in turn deduce what the outcome All of these questions focus on the concerns, worries or hopes of industry insiders.
Main business income landslide, export contrarian up
From the analysis of the economic operation of tractor industrial enterprises, the main business revenue and profits showed a slight decline, the total liabilities and the slowdown in the growth of accounts receivable.As of the end of October 2017, 174 enterprises above Designated Size realized the main business income 56.302 billion yuan, profit 1.677 billion yuan, down 1% and 2.67%. Main business income growth deteriorating, the decline in 2017 breakthrough bottom line, into the path of negative growth.
The industry profit trend is even more alarming, with negative growth for three consecutive years since 2015, but the growth rate has been decreasing year by year. The market continued to decline, which has hit the confidence of enterprises in expanding their investment and boosted their awareness of market risk control And capacity statistics show that as of the end of October 2017, China's tractor industrial enterprises overall profit of 33.32 billion yuan, down 0.91%; accounts receivable 89.95 billion yuan, up slightly from the previous year 6.95% .This is the golden period of development in 2013 20% ~ 40% profit growth in stark contrast.
If the tractor domestic market is lackluster, the export market is reassuring. The tractor exports in 2017 showed the most prominent feature of the "incremental incremental drop," the export structure continues to optimize statistics show that, as of the end of the year, By the end of October 2017, China had totally 121,000 tractors exported, down 21.21% year-on-year and down 68.51 percentage points on a year-on-year basis. Its export volume reached 409 million yuan, a sharp rise of 36.46% over the same period of last year with a growth rate of 50.49 percentage points.
The decline in exports originated from two factors. First, the exports of walking tractors dropped significantly. Statistics show that as of the end of October 2017, a total of 81,000 sets of walking tractors were exported, down 32.45% from the same period of last year with a deceleration rate of 99.76 percentage points ; Second, the trend of large-scale wheeled tractor exports increased, large tractors in the export of wheeled tractors have increased substantially.
In 2017, China's tractor export market showed a steady upward trend mainly due to the following reasons: First, the recovery of the world economy, especially the economic recovery in Asia and Africa, has become a powerful support for the export of agricultural machinery. China's tractors and harvesters exported to Asia and Africa all showed a sharp rise The second is that the export of agricultural machinery dropped drastically in 2016, resulting in the 'depressions' in the export market. The market is gaining momentum and energy is released in 2017, boosting the export growth of agricultural machinery. Third, the quality of China's agricultural machinery continues to improve, especially for large-scale agricultural machinery products and its international competitiveness Significantly increased, the export of agricultural machinery have a stronger role in stimulating.
Significant decline in the domestic market, horsepower demand interpretation of the new features
Since 2017, the tractor market of our country has been going down all the way. The market of medium, small and medium sized tractors has been falling back. The market survey shows that as of the end of October 2017, the total domestic sales of various tractors reached 1,227,900 sets, down 12.32% from the same period of last year. Total sales of 61,400 units, dragged 340,000 units, small drag 867,500 units, down 18.78%, respectively, 14.55% and 12.32%.
China's tractor market decline is inevitable, if one year growth, it must be rarer than the New Year, this judge few opponents of the industry because we all know that China's tractor market experienced gold 10 years later, the market rigid demand Is already a spent force, and different characteristics of the year presented, all marked with the imprint of chance factors, such as the 2017 tractor environment changes.
First, the subsidies for agricultural machinery lagged in. Although the national subsidy was issued to all provinces in 2017, many provinces have yet to release the subsidy program, and the distributors and manufacturing enterprises have not learned the past and no longer subsidized the market in advance Strong wait-and-see mood, most consumers hold money to buy. Second, the purchasing power decreased, the update cycle is extended .2016 three major grain prices dropped sharply, farmers income decreased, purchasing power decreased, rigid demand has been suppressed, a direct result of tractor refresh cycle Extend the tractor market power support is insufficient. Third, agricultural revenue decline in recent years with the tractor social retention increased year by year, the user investment income shrunk, suppressed potential consumer confidence in the investment, have a greater impact on the market.
Market demand for horsepower in the medium-sized and long-haul markets also showed new features in 2017. Market surveys show that tractors from 25 to 100 horsepower still dominate the market in the first 10 months of 2017. The accumulated sales of various trailers totaled 340,000 units, Dragged 85.15% over the same period in 2016, up 0.69 percentage points.
Horsepower concentrated to the middle of a very strong tendency of 25 to 50 horsepower and 80 to 100 hp segment showed a significant degree of year-on-year decline in varying degrees, 50 to 80 horsepower segment showed a larger growth, a typical medium-sized tractor models. Drag the horsepower segment of the proportion of view, 40 to 60 horsepower segment accounted for up to 45.44%.
In the first 10 months of 2017, China sold a total of 61,400 large tractors of over 100 horsepower, down 18.78% from a year earlier, accounting for 4.8% of the total, down 0.38 percentage point from the same period of 2016.
From more than 100 horsepower big drag on the market analysis, horsepower section on the extension of the more intense.
110-140 horsepower segment showed a significant degree of decline in different degrees, 140-180 horsepower segment showed varying degrees of substantial rise, especially in the 150-180 horsepower tractor up to three digits year-on-year.
From the proportion of view, 100, 130, 150 horsepower section of the main drag-type models, accounting for up to 55.7% of which 150 horsepower section to become the largest increase in models.
The mainstream area plunged, concentration fell
In 2017, there are two notable changes in the Dazhong-Dao regional market in our country. One is the drastic drop in the mainstream regional market. According to market surveys, as of the end of October 2017, a total of 202,000 large and medium-sized tractors have been sold in the 10 major mainstream regions in China , Representing a year-on-year decrease of 18.53%; accounting for 50.32% of the total, a decrease of 2.04 percentage point from the same period of 2016.
Among them, 33,500 units and 29,200 units were sold in Inner Mongolia and Henan regions respectively, up 14.61% and 11.05% respectively over the same period of previous year. The three northeastern provinces, along with Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu, Anhui, Long area market showed varying degrees of decline, the decline in the Gansu market except outside, are more than 20%, up to 37%.
Competition chaos, steady hidden behind the crisis
In 2017, the competition pattern of medium, long and medium-sized tractors changed drastically, highlighting a decrease in concentration. The cumulative sales of the 6 mainstream brands reached 157,700 units, a significant decrease of 28.57% from the same period of previous year, accounting for 39.18% of the total, down from the same period in 2016 7.32 percentage points from the performance of mainstream brands, compared to the same period '5 under 1', China YTO, Foton Lovol, Changzhou Dongfeng, Zoomlion showed a significant degree of decline in varying degrees, a slight decline year on year Shandong, Di Seoul (China) contrarian growth, an increase of 9.45%.
Under the premise of large and medium-sized market downturn, the two characteristics are highlighted: First, the high-end big brand platform "Diving", Dongfanghong, European Leopard, Dongfeng 'troika' are spared; second, small brand small Climbed up. Some small businesses contrarian growth. In the survey, we found that there was a single enterprise with an increase of 40% over the same period of last year. In Jiamusi, we also found some non-inflow enterprises selling at very low prices without subsidies In short, large and medium-sized market competition in the transformation and upgrading of the market, demand downturn in the environment, is rapidly divided, the interpretation of the new competitive landscape.
From 2017 International Agricultural Machinery Exhibition, we tractor industry highlights the 'siege' complex. Outside companies want to rush in, and inside the company want to rush out.
Outside the business want to rush in. 2017 exhibition shine, the scenery is infinite than the tractor category.All the booths can be described as crowded, colorful flags fluttering.The survey showed that the exhibitors tractor brand as many as 131, an increase over the previous year 6% .For example, many of the new brands such as Tianjin Yong Meng, Shandong Kohl Farms, Wo Fu Tian Agricultural Equipments, Shandong Liancheng, Tengzhou Tengtuo, Weifang Xinlian, Luoyang Tianyuanggelasi, Yingxuan Heavy Industries and Jingshan Sanrei Heavy Industries, Punch up his sleeves, into the tractor industry.
On the contrary, there are not less than 20 tractor companies sadly leaving in 2017. According to the survey, there are 15 or more in Weifang alone. Of course, these companies that leave are naturally hard to find at the show. The historical experience tells us that this phenomenon is neither the past nor the present, but the future.
Every year, there are constant exit of enterprises and continuous influx of new businesses in every industry. This is the basic logic followed by metabolism in a market economy environment, but it is understandable that an industry is enduring, always hot, attractive and attractive So many companies to go before, how much is still a bit surprising.
In recent years, the tractor market deteriorating, why so many companies rush into it? According to the author's investigation, no more due to the following reasons: First, the tractor market capacity, more than 150 million units a year sales, including medium and large mop There are more than 50 million units, the main business income of 71.329 billion yuan (2016 data), accounting for 15.03% of the entire agricultural machinery industry.Such a plate, can not let many companies tempted.Second, China's tractor industry is mature, the supply chain Improve the formation of Weifang, Luoyang, Ningbo, southern Jiangsu as the center of the tractor production cluster for the new entrants to provide a fertile soil .Three is a demonstration of new brands.In recent years, a number of little-known small businesses have grown rapidly among the large Brand, is tantamount to the new entrants into the tonic, provides the most sufficient reasons for entry.Fourth, with the traditional hot market cooling, some companies rely on a single product is difficult to support the survival and development of enterprises, out of the extension of industrial value Need to enter the market chain, so that already crowded tractor industry, with the addition of many brands, will further aggravate market competition in the next few years, shuffle Or will sweep the tide of the industry.
Basically steady up, dragging the market or bottoming out
The tractor market chaos in our country is difficult to change in a short time, the rise of big names and brand-name dying need a process, although time can not accurately grasp, but the result of competition must be competition, this is the truth.
The market will enter a consolidation phase after the two-year slide in 2017, especially after the formation of 'depressions.' It is estimated that the sales volume of major medium and large trailers in 2017 will be around 10 million units in 2017, down by 10% % Or more; 2018 market or bottoming out, sales of 550,000 units, an increase of about 8%.
In 2018, the market may show the following features: First, the market demand edged up slightly. After experiencing the "two-year losing streak," we judge the market has bottomed out this year or staged a counterattack to defend the battle. However, due to the low rigid demand, Second, the big market is expected to be deserved. Subsoiling land and land transfer, large-scale operation, the rise of professional cooperatives and many other factors will contribute to fertile soil for the upswing in the big trailer market. In addition, in 2017 The big drop in the market has unexpectedly plummeted so that the big market for dragons in 2018 will be looking forward to the future. Thirdly, the price war or the flames will not be able to make any changes in the purchasing power of consumers in a short period of time. There are many tractors, The competition in the market will become extremely tragic. In a very homogeneous and very homogeneous environment, price competition will become an important option for many corporate brands. Marketing has once again become the focus of business.