'Chen Qingtai, chairman of China's 100th EV, and Ouyang Minggao, executive vice president of China EV 100, explained some of the hot issues in the development of China's electric vehicle industry in 2017.'
As the world's largest automotive market, China is actively promoting the transformation of the automobile industry and has formulated a series of policies to ensure that fuel vehicles The transition of electric vehicles to achieve cornering overtaking in the field of new energy vehicles, leading the global development.
On January 7, Chen Qingtai, chairman of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Summit, and Ouyang Minggao, executive vice chairman of the China Electric Car 100 Summit, voted on the "China Electric Vehicle 100 Summit (2018)" on November 20, The development of the automotive industry some hot issues and the media were exchanged.
Solid state lithium-ion battery technology is more promising
As the overall expert group leader of major projects of "863" plan for energy saving and new energy vehicles, Ouyang Minggao made a review of the development of electric vehicles mainly from a technical perspective.
He believes that the battery, power consumption, charging technology is the core technology in the field of electric vehicles, and the battery is the top priority in 2020 to industrialization of 300 watt hours / kg battery has made substantial breakthroughs, but some companies Safety standards have not been fully met.
Although a variety of battery research and development are in progress, but Ouyang Minggao believes that all-solid-state lithium-ion battery technology is still not yet mature, there are still technical uncertainties, the current show or have a breakthrough, a performance advantage and industry Prospects, mainly solid-state lithium-ion battery.
He predicts that solid-state lithium-ion battery is expected to achieve 300 watt hours / kg target by 2020. At present, the technology research and development at home and abroad are basically the same level, but the safety research needs to be strengthened. The core of solid-state lithium-ion battery is safety.
Is there a gap between Chinese and foreign car prices?
For OEMs, the core technologies of electric vehicles are specifically several major systems: the 'battery', not the single battery, and the entire battery system, including the high voltage electrical system, the thermal management system, the safety system, etc. 'The motor ', Is the entire electric drive system, including motors, transmissions, controllers, etc .;' electronic control 'nor is it a general sense of the electronic control, the vehicle is the future of intelligent control of the vehicle and network connection.
Ouyang Minggao believes that the core technology of the three block system, the current domestic OEM is better SAIC and BYD, foreign good is BMW, Nissan and Tesla. Domestic and foreign compared to some gaps, but not yet Particularly large, basically in the same starting line, are in the research and development.
In fact, the value of EV intelligent not only finally technical changes, but also in the transformation of the car business model.On the one hand, to improve the cost of electric vehicles, but also increase the added value of electric vehicles.Electric vehicles may be the final value-added In software and services, these needs will depend on intelligence and networking.
Ouyang Minggao believes that China's car prices will certainly be able to do well on the Internet. The reason is that Internet development in China itself is relatively good and has its own advantages.
Is it feasible to change mode?
According to the current lithium battery technology, after a number of charge cycles, the lithium battery will inevitably have the problem of capacity decay, but also can not achieve the "power-up," as fast. So Wei to ES8 is the choice Power mode, but this model has caused a huge controversy.
Ouyang Minggao believes that the exchange mode is not a technical problem, the technology can not change for all, this is a business model, technical standards and laws and regulations as different brands of electric vehicles to replace the battery is not exactly the same, automatically Electricity exchange system may not be universal, while the cost of building a power station is too high, so there is a certain challenge to promote the wide range of exchange mode.
At present, the mainstream car companies mainly use the charging mode.As the electric car mileage increases, the battery capacity will inevitably increase, full of battery time will become longer, but the rapid charge technology development can meet this demand.
However, Ouyang Minggao believes that as a whole, high-power fast charging costs will be higher, safety will be reduced, the impact on the grid will be great.However, because the luxury car does not consider the price and cost, Customer experience and particularly good, you can develop high-power fast charge, small cars do not need such a large charging power.
When to enter the Ebb Tide stage?
According to data from China National Gas Research Institute, there are more than 200 new-energy automobile enterprises in China, and I am afraid that such a grand occasion will not happen in any place in the world, but in the end it may not be able to survive in the end.Car is one of the most typical needs of the scale Effects of the line, the global automotive manufacturing center in Detroit, after a hundred years of fighting, only three remaining "giants."
Ouyang Minggao believes that it is possible that in 2019 and 2020, foreign-funded and traditional trolleys will all start to launch electric vehicles. Market-oriented operations will also come up. Subsidies will be canceled and natural ebb and flow will start.
Chen Qingtai believes that in 2017 China's electric vehicles in transition to high-quality development, the situation is very gratifying, the important performance is that the positive development has almost completely replaced the reverse development, innovation continued to improve, the overall technical level on a big In addition, the main product quality, taste, brand, from low to medium high-grade products, some products have been proposed to target luxury cars, standard luxury brands. As a result, the gap between enterprises will slowly Larger, and some accumulated technology, and some brand effect began to play a role, over time will appear Ebb Tide process.
How to fight the car prices?
Electric vehicle to move forward to cross a critical point, that is, the cost of electric vehicles to meet or exceed the fuel truck.If this hurdle, electric vehicles can rely on independent development of market forces do not need to rely on a lot of policies and subsidies to promote.
With the continuous improvement of batteries, motors and electric control technologies, as well as the information-based, network-linked and intelligent technologies based on electric vehicles, the cost-effectiveness of electric vehicles will reach or exceed that of traditional fuel vehicles by 2025 at the latest.
Chen Ching-tai believes that this period of 2020 will be just the stage for the government to step down. It is also the stage for large companies to accumulate strength. It is also how China's electric vehicles can make use of such a short transition period to step up their own expansion.
To this end, he made three recommendations for the car prices.First, continue to improve the cost-effective electric vehicles, in addition to batteries, lightweight, but also must be energy-efficient.Second, product technology to be two-lane operations, the first front Is to continuously improve the car's driving function, the second front in the driving function to improve on the basis of the combination of networking, intelligence, sharing. Third, automatic driving for a commanding height .Fourth, pay close attention to brand building.