Although the new energy automotive industry has been promoted for several years, compared with the publicity propaganda, the actual development has always been a big thunder and a small raindrop. The traditional automobile enterprises lacks the real passion and new-found brands lack the capital and technology stand by.
With the formal introduction of the "Double Credits" policy in September 2017, public opinion generally believes that 2018 will be the year for the new energy auto industry to take off. The reason is very simple. Whether for vehicle manufacturers or consumers, the new energy industry has been With a certain degree of understanding and understanding, the integration of upstream and downstream enterprises has also been accumulated for several years.
In fact, the new energy industry has transformed itself from a niche market not favored by the industry to the blue ocean that has become increasingly valued by all parties, including multinational auto companies. Many new joint ventures such as JAC, Zhongtai Ford and others have done so produce.
As the core area of the development of new energy automotive industry, power battery has been the focus of widespread concern, the future of China's power battery industry will be how to develop?
After the blowout caused by subsidies
With the new energy vehicle industry as a major strategy, the corresponding incentive policies are also introduced. Since the "2010 Notice on Piloting Private Purchase of New Energy Vehicles", the encouragement for the development of the new energy automobile industry Policy is endless.
Different stages of development will have different measures, mainly in the early stage of subsidies and policy-oriented funds, mainly to encourage and positively motivate consumers to buy, as well as the upstream and downstream industry chains to new energy sources, and these measures are very effective in the early stage of industrial development , But not sustainable.
As the order of magnitude of the new energy automotive industry gradually increases, the financial burden will also be heavier and heavier.
In the meantime, at the end of 2014, with no major breakthroughs in electric vehicle technology, the number of domestic enterprises that announced or entered the field of electric vehicles far exceeded the number of Japan's first R & D of new energy vehicles.
Some companies do not have the ability to engage in new energy research and development work ability is so positive because it is in order to get the subsidies of state and local governments.Follow-up occurred in 2015 cheating behavior was found that some OEM resignation is not conducive to the whole Car companies to develop remote prefecture-level cities do electric car conversion company, a car will be able to cheat more than 70,000 yuan of state and local subsidies, some dozens of small businesses profit a few hundred million a year.
As a result, the industry is worried about the effect and significance of subsidies for new energy, and new energy subsidy policies have also been adjusted, and acceleration of slope back-off has become the consensus of all parties.Although the 2018 new energy subsidy policy has not yet been promulgated, According to the spread of the draft can be found in 2018 subsidies for new energy vehicles will accelerate the slope back, the important point is that the new energy vehicles mileage of 150 km subsidy will be zero or zero.
The public opinion believes that this will have a huge impact on the new energy industry. In particular, the spectacular mini electric car in 2017 will hit hard in the first half of 2018.
According to the currently published statistics, mini-EV sales accounted for 65% of the entire new energy passenger vehicle market in 2017. In the first 11 months, Beiqi EC Series and Zhudou D2 respectively won the crown sales in the segment Runner-up, Beiqi EC series 64,910 vehicles, known beans D2 total sales of 41155 vehicles.
The combined mileage of these two vehicles is 162km and 155km, respectively. If calculated according to the new standard in 2018, the amount of 'national subsidy and land compensation' obtained in 2018 will be reduced from 34,000 yuan this year to 30,000 yuan, that is, In the original terminal price of about 100,000 yuan, need to upgrade to 124,000 yuan.If the company does not take the appropriate price adjustment strategy, electric car sales cliff diving has been able to foresee.
In this regard, Chery New Energy Battery Systems Director Zhu Guangyan told Die Zeit reporter told reporters that the current slope of withdrawal is an inevitable trend, not necessarily a bad thing.At present, the development of electric vehicles is still more dependent on National policies and subsidies, blindly emphasize the life cycle and energy density, resulting in a lot of things may be covered.And subsidies to the slope, the real competition is the strength and technology, when the business is not only targeting subsidies to do things may be Adopt cost-effective, secure solutions.
Rapid integration of the industry
In the previous large-scale subsidy incentives, not only to enter the electric vehicle manufacturing enterprises have mushroomed, including the upstream and downstream facilities also follow the same flowering everywhere, and cheating similar reasons.
Prior to the subsidies for new energy vehicles large and relaxed, in many aspects of automobile production have subsidies, policies are issued jointly by many departments, there is no effective regulation.Thus, some companies can produce a car to be profitable , A large number of crude shoddy; and some enterprises in the sale of part-time fraud, one hand set up factories, set up one hand car rental company, easy assembly 'production' of electric vehicles, defrauding subsidies, and then resell to control their own rental company, and then remove the battery recycling, So repeatedly cheat fill.
However, after cheating and compensatory behavior was exposed by the media, the new energy cheat act was effectively stopped and the new energy automotive industry gradually returned to normal.According to the data released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in November 2017, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China completed 122,000 And 119,000 units, up 70.1% and 83% respectively over the same period of last year, with cumulative production and sales of 639,000 units and 609,000 units completed in January-November respectively. The industry forecast that as of the end of 2017, full year 2017 sales will reach '70 Million 'goal.
Public opinion has generally believed that the core of the development of new energy vehicles is the urgent need for breakthrough power battery technology, after experiencing new energy cheating events, the development of power batteries has also become the industry needs to re-examine the field.
Wu Feng, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, told Die Zeit reporter: 'To increase the driving range of electric vehicles, there is a need for high specific energy batteries. In the pursuit of high specific energy, heat can cause car combustion and explosion, The problem of safety of the battery is not the single factor, so the safety and reliability of the lithium-ion battery should be improved systematically and multi-anglely based on the thorough and comprehensive understanding of the battery reaction mechanism and its associated side reactions in the application environment. This requires a comprehensive solution to a variety of materials, battery design, battery system security technology.
In fact, the power battery industry is facing more problems due to the rapid development of new energy sources.
The data show that since 2017, driven by the pressure of upstream raw material prices and downstream auto companies' prices, power battery manufacturers started to suffer 'winter', and the data recently released highlight the dilemma in this area.
From January to November 2017, the accumulated installed capacity of domestic new energy vehicles was only 25.23GWh, and experts expect that it will not exceed 35GWh for the full year of 2017. According to the statistics of third parties, the production capacity of domestic power batteries has exceeded 200GWh in 2017.
Even based on previous projections, by 2020 China's production of new energy vehicles can achieve 2 million vehicles, the demand for power lithium battery is only 170Gwh, therefore, the current power battery production is a serious surplus.
Market supply and demand is so unbalanced, which led to supporting products into the Ministry of Industry and Power Catalog of power battery companies, from more than 200 in 2016, down to the current more than 90.
Insiders believe that the power battery industry is facing reshuffle, or large-scale reshuffle has already begun.
Prior to the country Xuan Gaoke, the National Science and Technology Achievement Transformation Fund, New Energy Vehicle Venture Capital Sub-Fund Managing Partner and President Fang Jianhua had told the media that although the number has been reduced by more than half in the outside world seems to have been a lot of adjustments, but in Fang Jianhua view, this is just the beginning of the adjustment, the next knockout speed will be faster.
Many problems need to be solved urgently
In the meantime, at the same time as the rapid elimination of power battery enterprises, more and more auto companies have begun to choose their own products for small and medium-sized power battery enterprises to carry out the development, including the equally sprung up of new innovative energy car brands have also selected Corresponding to the size of the battery business cooperation.
Some industry analysts pointed out that in the traditional automobile manufacturing supply chain, the OEMs on the same parts at least three or more suppliers supporting supply.In the field of new energy vehicles, power batteries account for 30% of the total cost -50% , Such a key component, OEMs also need more than three suppliers, but at present the so-called power battery manufacturers no more than five.
Dongguan Tafel new energy technology executives Jiang Kecheng told reporters on the Times Weekly, the current high-quality power battery suppliers are not enough car manufacturers to choose.On the one hand we will find that production capacity seems to be surplus, but on the other hand continue There is a dark horse in the industry. The reason for this contradiction is that there are still a few high-quality suppliers now available for the depot. The depot wants to build a robust supply chain and he has to develop such a supplier.
The resulting cycle, a short period of time caused by the power battery industry is difficult to form a polymerization effect, the scale of overcapacity, but the overall high-quality, high-quality enterprises and product numbers are not many.
It is precisely because of their own way, their own development of ideas, resulting in the battery industry can not form the same as the traditional field of fuel vehicles 92 #, 95 # fuel specifications.
Zhao Deyong, Managing Director of Beijing Saideh Resources Recycling Research Institute Co., Ltd., told TIME Times reporter that in 2017 the size of the power battery has been introduced. After two years of gaming, more than 500 kinds were declared at that time. Up to now, More than 100 kinds of batteries have too many specifications and sizes. As a result, many problems have arisen from the beginning of equipment production to the recovery after use, and the yield rate is hard to be improved.
Although relying on the development of logistics business areas, new energy vehicles made no small improvement in 2017, but the ultimate development trend after entering the field of passenger vehicles, in particular, how the market performance after subsidies to the downslope, the power battery industry Would not like the industry experts described the 'battery industry will repeat the mistakes of the photovoltaic industry', this year or will be the key to see the key year.
