AI, driven by the cloud! DRAM supply continued tight in the first half

Analysts predict that DRAM supply will continue to be tight in the first half of the year, while NAND flash memory will supply excessively in the short term, but supply will gradually be digested and gradually recovered in the second half of the year Tight situation.

Barron`s.com reported on the 5th that Keybanc analyst Weston Twigg released a research report stating that the overall DRAM supply will remain tight until new production (2018) arrives later this year (2018) The survey shows DRAM quarterly quarterly quarterly quarterly growth rate should be 5-9% (including PC / server DRAM prices rose higher, less mobile DRAM), the second quarter will be flat offer, while the second half of the year Will be flat to moderate decline in the situation.

DRAM makers are still predicting that this year's bit-rate of demand growth will be around 20%, and the projected increase in supply will be around this range, with half of the bit-rate growth coming from nano-process conversion and half coming from new capacity .

NAND flash memory quotes should decline in the first half, but Q1's decline will be quite modest. NAND will be over-supply in the first half, as manufacturers begin mass-production 64-layer 3D NAND. Survey, NAND contract prices will be slow in Q1 Decline, the quarterly rate of decline between 3-5%, Q2 decline will be exacerbated to double-digit .In the second half, offer decline will slow down, or even stabilize, mainly thanks to the slowdown in supply growth.

MarketWatch reports that Sanjay Mehrotra, chief executive of Micron Technology Inc., said in a December 19 interview that the drivers of demand (data center, cloud computing , GPU, machine learning) is very much decentralized and unlike the past, he said, artificial intelligence (AI) is just beginning, and now it's just the tip of the iceberg.

Mehrotra said the server market will continue to be the largest source of growth for years to come. In addition, the current small driverless fleet will be an additional area of ​​rapid growth that complements the strong demand from the cloud Micron expects 2018 fiscal year Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share for the second quarter of about 2.51-2.65 US dollars, better than the first quarter of fiscal year 2018 (as of November 30, 2017) of 2.45 US dollars, revenue estimates of about 68-72 billion US dollars, far Better than the FactSet survey of 62.4 billion US dollars market average estimate.

Nikkei Asia commented in October last year that Li Peiyan, general manager of South Asia Branch, said at the time that data center servers will replace smart phones as the most powerful sources of growth momentum in the DRAM industry since 2017. Li Peiyin said that in the next few years, applications such as AI in smart cars Driven by data center servers, DRAM demand will become the most important growth engine for power locomotives.

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