Pre: 2018 battery development prospects
After: 2018 Power Battery Development Outlook (second part)
In the previous article, we looked forward to the future development trend of electric vehicles. South Korea's SNE research is optimistic about the development of electric vehicles and believes that sales of PHEV and BEV will reach about 21% of the total vehicle sales by 2025. Volkswagen And Nissan will sell more than 2 million electric vehicles, under which SNE believes that the power battery industry will be a huge market of $ 97.9 billion in 2025. Of course, not everyone is so optimistic about the development of the electric vehicle industry For example, LMC Automotive holds a relatively conservative attitude. LMC believes that the current global market share of electric vehicles accounts for only about 1% of the total, while the United States accounts for a lower proportion. In 2025, US demand for electric vehicles is expected to be only 2.4%, less than 10% of the world. Let us use SNE optimistic about the data to look forward to the future development trend of power batteries.
In the last article, we mentioned that power batteries will dominate the demand for lithium-ion batteries as the demand for power batteries continues to grow.According to SNE's forecast, by 2025, the market share of power batteries will occupy the entire lithium-ion battery 82.2% of the market share, lithium-ion battery industry will have a decisive impact.
The market demand for power battery will grow rapidly with the development of electric vehicle industry. It is estimated that the market demand for power battery will reach 1243GWh by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 46%. The world's top 10 electric vehicle manufacturers (VW, Nissan, GM, Toyota, Hyundai, Tesla, FCA, Honda, BYD) will reach 874GWh, accounting for about 70% of the total demand, indicating that the competition in the electric vehicle industry will continue to intensify and industry concentration will continue to increase .
With the rapid growth of the power battery industry, the majority of power battery manufacturers have started their wrestling. From the shipments in the first seven months of 2017 (survey data of SNE research), the enterprises in China, Japan and South Korea are the motive force The absolute lead in the battery market, Panasonic is still in the absolute leading position, shipments in the first seven months of 2017 increased by 32.5% compared with 2016 and the market share in 2017 increased by 1.3% to 24.9% over 2016. In the second tier Is South Korea's LG Chem, China's CATL and BYD. In particular, LG's shipments in 2017 achieved a substantial increase of 160.7% and its market share more than doubled to 11.7%, followed by a steady increase in CATL shipments 22.7%, the market share slightly reduced to 10.3% .But BYD shipments in the first seven months of 2017 actually declined, the market share showed a slight decline, Xiaobian think this may be with lithium battery BYD only Supply of their own electric vehicles, with the BYD battery began to supply other electric car manufacturers, this situation will be greatly improved.
According to the survey of suppliers of mainstream car makers (SNE research data), the major power battery suppliers of major car makers are mainly South Korea's LG and SDI, while Toyota and Tesla use Panasonic's power battery. The domestic manufacturer BYD With its own industry chain advantage, but also occupy a seat, CATL is by virtue of a number of manufacturers to provide power batteries (such as Nissan Alliance, Volkswagen, GM, Hyundai - Kia, BMW and other car prices), but also in the power battery market Steady heels.
However, in China, due to the restriction of the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles, the supply of motive batteries is mainly driven by domestic motive batteries, which provides a breathing space for the majority of domestic motive battery manufacturers. However, this advantage will be offset by the subsidy policy Of the cancellation and loss, then the majority of battery manufacturers need to rely on their own cost control and product technology and power battery manufacturers at home and abroad positive fight, this is the vast majority of battery manufacturers the real exam.
Although power batteries will have huge market demand in the future, in the short term, power batteries will continue to face the problem of overcapacity. In 2017, overcapacity in power batteries will reach 157%. Since then, as demand has increased, overcapacity will develop Will be improved, but overcapacity will not be completely solved until 2023. The market demand for power batteries will surpass the supply for the first time in 2023, and the gap will reach 10%, and the situation of undercapacity will continue to worsen. By 2025 this gap will reach 27%.
However, in China, due to the rapid expansion of power battery capacity, the supply of power batteries will continue to surpass and peak in 2018, with an overcapacity of 257%. As the market demand continues to increase, this phenomenon will be somewhat improved. However, the domestic market will remain overcapacitized until 2025, so under this circumstance, there are only two solutions for China's battery manufacturers: 1) defeating other competitors through technological upgrading; 2) occupying the international Market, but this also faces fierce competition from battery manufacturers in Japan and South Korea, so in any case, to upgrade the technology level is the only option for battery manufacturers.
Power battery overcapacity is an indisputable fact, especially overcapacity in China is particularly serious, three types of lithium-ion batteries (cylindrical, square and soft battery) are facing the challenge of overcapacity, according to SNE's forecast (Note: The following Data does not include the Chinese market), the situation is relatively soft flexible battery, as demand growth faster, so in 2019 will be able to get out of the shadow of overcapacity, and production capacity will continue to increase the gap until 2025 capacity gap will reach 61%. The demand for square batteries is growing relatively slowly, so the situation of overcapacity will not be alleviated until 2020, and the deficit will continue to expand afterwards, reaching 44% in 2025. The case of cylindrical batteries Relatively awkward, with the continuous increase of production capacity, the situation of overcapacity will continue to deteriorate by 2019, and will peak in 2019 with an overcapacity of 54%. Since then, the excess capacity will be completely digested until 2022, With the increase in demand, the problem of insufficient production capacity will continue thereafter, and the production capacity gap will reach 32% by 2025.
In 2018, a large number of power battery projects will be completed and put into production. With the influx of large capacity into the market, overcapacity will become a lingering haze for the development of the power battery industry. Especially in the Chinese market, overcapacity will continue until 2025 Year, so Xiaobian believe that in the case of lack of demand, overcapacity, the blind expansion of production capacity is not the best choice in technology R & D into more cost is the best choice at this stage.Once the new energy subsidy policy is canceled, the vast majority Electric vehicle manufacturers are no longer subject to the subsidy policy restrictions, then we will compete with foreign battery manufacturers face to face, how to survive in the fierce competition is that we need to consider the problem, only by low prices can not solve the problem, the technology Advantage is the key to success.
