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1, IDC: LU this year to continue to reduce the display of high-end/commercial market orientation development;
Set of micro-network news, IDC China yesterday (3) released a quarterly PC Monitor report showed that the third quarter of 2017 China's mainland monitor market overall shipments of 8.613 million units, the annual decrease of 8%, the quarterly increase of 10.2%, is expected to 2017 China display market shipments of 32.04 million units, the year minus 9.4%. At the same time, IDC China presented the 2018 China display market, the top ten forecasts, is expected in 2018 in the overall market continued to decline, high-end display and commercial market will usher in new development opportunities.
IDC estimates that China's overall display market 2018 shipments will drop 4.8%, of which independent display shipments fell 8.2%, bundled display down 1.2%. Two major factors continue to affect the independent display market, one is the consumer to buy independent display of the demand is reduced, the other is the Internet bar market continues to shrink, the Internet bar independent display shipments will be reduced by 13.2%. The bundling of the display market continues to benefit from the 2018 demand for commercial change, slowing down.
In terms of size, IDC estimated that the 2018 display market, 23-24-inch ratio of 44.6%, 25-27-inch ratio of 10.5%, large and medium-sized display ratio will be significantly increased, the main reason is that the first is the domestic market to medium and large size transfer; The second is the Korean panel factory does not cut 21.5 inches and the following small size, this size of the following IPS panel substantially reduced, display manufacturers can only move to 23-27 inches. IDC predicts that the 2018 surface, 2K and electric competition displays will grow by the year, the 2017 144Hz and above the output of the auction display in 2016 will increase by 145.6%, and 2018 will increase by 42.6%. The rapid development of the electric competition game promotes the home market and the net Bar market product replacement, but because the price of the electric competition display is high, the growth rate will still be restrained. 2 K display Market 2017 year 18%, is expected to increase by 11.5% in 2018; The 4K market grew by 18.1% in 2017 and is expected to grow by 7% in 2018, with the main drivers of growth coming from consumption upgrades and online pipelines becoming the main buying force.
In addition, IDC estimates that the display panel price in 2018 will be small monthly return, driving the display price corresponding small drop. But panel prices are expected to remain at historically high levels, limiting manufacturers ' price war space. In addition, by the Korean panel factory no longer supply 21.5 inches and the following small size panels, small size display price will be particularly limited.
IDC also estimated that the 2018 home market display market shows a ' one-liter ' trend, that is, shipments will be reduced by 8.6%, but the favor of high-end products increased; 2018 Internet cafes independent display market will slow down, is expected to reduce the volume of shipments of 13.2%, and in the Internet café market reorganization reshuffle, more net café owners will occasion the development of electricity competition, to seek transformation and upgrading, resulting in a surface screen and other products of new needs.
IDC pointed out that the commercial market will become the display market 2018 years of competition focus; Mainly affected by the market downturn in the Internet cafes, 2017 China's commercial display shipments will be reduced by 2.6%; If the Internet café is excluded, the commercial market will increase by 4.2% in the year. IDC also estimated that 2017 electric power pipeline independent monitor shipments are expected to increase by 9% per cent, accounting for independent display market share of 35%; China's monitor market in 2018 is expected to increase the number of pipeline shipments will be 6.7% year.
IDC China senior analyst Wang Banling suggested that 2018 China display market products will appear homogeneity trend, differentiated competition is imperative; The commercial market will be the focus of the 2018 China display market, and government, education, transportation and service industries will be the key to supporting the development of the commercial market. In the home market, manufacturers should be placed in large size, focusing on high resolution and competition products. 2, LGD China Construction Factory was approved by the Korean enterprises to encircle China panel business?
Newspaper reporter Li Xiaoyu
South Korean companies export OLED technology to overseas for the first time. At the end of 2017, the South Korean government has the conditions to approve the South Korean LG Group's panel subsidiary LG Display (hereinafter referred to as LGD) in Guangzhou, China to establish OLED 8.5 generation production line plan. As the leader of large size OLED panel, LGD Good news, recently, LGD announced the successful development of the world's first 88-inch 8K OLED panel. LGD's investment in China will rapidly expand production capacity and promote the popularization of OLED in the industrial chain. Chinese manufacturers will face more pressure in 2018 as Japanese and Korean companies accelerate their distribution in the OLED sector in 2017.
LGD in China construction plant dust settles
LGD Overseas OLED production line factory was finally finalized. Recently, the South Korean government approved LG Display and Guangzhou, China to establish a 8.5-generation OLED production line plan to deal with the expanding OLED overseas market demand. At the same time, the Korean government asked LGD to strictly prohibit the leakage of its manufacturing technology, to prevent the outflow of High-tech.
It is reported that this is the first time South Korean enterprises to transfer this advanced technology abroad. In the next 3 years, LGD plans to invest 5 trillion won in Guangzhou (equivalent to about 30.5 billion yuan), accounting for the company's future 3 years of OLED investment of 25%.
As early as July 25, 2017, LGD announced that it would build a joint venture to produce OLED large-size panels in Guangzhou, China, and its panels were mainly used in television and electronic billboards. According to the introduction, the joint venture factory registered capital of about 15.7 billion yuan, LGD will hold 70%; The Chinese company, Guangzhou Kai-Tech, holds a 30% stake.
The South Korean government has not approved the partnership because of concerns about technology. This has led LGD to invest in Vietnam to build factories, and to speed up overseas market layout to expand capacity of the determination is unusually firm.
Promoting the process of OLED popularization in TV industry
Apple's iphone x has a demonstration effect on OLED screens, prompting more and more vendors to swarm into the OLED sector. Samsung is an absolute hegemon in small-size OLED markets like smartphones. However, in the global large size OLED panel market, LGD is a leading position.
According to IHS Markit, a market research agency, OLED TV shipments will soar from 723,000 units in 2016 to 6.6 million in 2020. For LGD, backed by China's big market, from Guangzhou factory directly to China's television manufacturers, will undoubtedly rapidly expand production capacity, reduce transport costs, and further stimulate the growth of OLED market. Industry insiders expect the LGD Guangzhou plant to meet the needs of mainland China and other European and Japanese manufacturers.
LGD President Lu Shangde said that 2017 company OLED panel capacity of 1.8 million, is expected to expand to 3 million in 2018, 6 million in 2020.
OLED display screen battle is imminent
According to the Forward-looking Industry Research Institute released "OLED industry market forecasts and Investment Analysis report" data show that 2016 global OLED shipments of about 350 million, the future in OLED overall screen trend, the estimated OLED screen 2019 will increase to 750 million, will be 2016 shipments of more than twice times, Annual compound growth rate reached 32%; The market will increase from $11.3 billion trillion in 2016 to $29.3 billion in 2019, with the penetration rate expected to exceed 50%.
In the OLED market, Korean enterprises occupy the first echelon. IHS Markit reported that 2017 Q3 quarter global flexible OLED display market size of 3.04 billion U.S. dollars. Among them, Samsung Electronics occupies 96.5% of the market share. LG Electronics is closely followed by a 3.3% share of the market. The third and Hui photoelectric market share of 0.1%.
Because the flexible OLED screen technology is difficult, low yield, the entire market is still a seller's markets, the industry is expected up to 2020, flexible OLED screen will be in short supply situation. 2018, LG, Samsung and other leading enterprises in a menacing, Chinese panel manufacturers are also speeding up the market layout. Recently, the Beijing-Orient and other Chinese manufacturers and Japan JDI Strategic cooperation News constantly, which indicates OLED display in Japan and South Korea war.
With policy support and capital intensive investment, the rapid rise of China's panel industry is fierce. At present, BoE and huaxing have invested in smart phones, such as small and medium sized OLED panel production lines. In the third quarter of 2017, Beijing-Orient surpassed LG as the world's largest manufacturer of large scale panels and will produce large OLED TV screens. With the gradual release of production capacity, Chinese manufacturers in the display area of domestic substitution is worth looking forward to. Communication News
3, LG AI Home appliance layout expanded to OLED TV 2018 push THINQ TV;
LG Electronics announced the 2018 OLED TV will import its own developed artificial intelligence (AI) platform thinq, expand the thinq biosphere, THINQ TV is expected to be with other products at CES 2018 debut. Yonhap reported that LG announced 2018 will launch the AI platform Thinq and Google Voice assistant Google Assistant Smart TV, users can only give voice commands to switch screen mode, channel or adjust the volume, television, Soundbar can also be connected with a CD player, a video game, and other devices. For example, users just press the remote to start the voice recognition button, you can give the "Switch to theater mode", ' Now watch the show after the end of the TV ', ' Connect game ', ' in Google photo to find 2017 in Las Vegas photos ' and other orders, but also ask ' Looking for Tom Cruise's movie ', ' Who's the actor who's watching the TV show now? ' And so on. And in the United States can use Google Assistant query itinerary, search for restaurants, search for the latest sporting events, such as personalized services, LG plan in the future through the software update, further provide restaurant booking, ordering services such as pizza, air purifier, air-conditioning, sweeping robot, intelligent light bulb and other things networking (IoT ) Functional devices can also be linked to Google Assistant. LG said the Google Assistant service, although currently available only in the United States, will be extended to other countries in the future. At present, with Google Assistant equipment including refrigerators, washing machines, dehumidifier, air-conditioning, sweeping robot, air purifier, oven, mobile phone (V30) and other products, 2018 TV to join AI home appliances front, will be able to further complete the Le Gold AI family eco-circle layout, industry personage pointed out that Google software, combined with LG Hardware, is expected to make a bigger profit. In addition, LG also exposes OLED TVs that will be listed in 2018 to their own development of intelligent Processor Alpha 9, removing subtle flaws on the screen, reducing viewing disturbances, providing a high quality image experience, and expanding 4-K videos that support high dynamic range imaging (HDR) or wide gamut effects (HFR) images. Kang, Minister of Home Entertainment (he), points out that THINQ TV will provide an unprecedented user experience with AI and more perfect quality. Digitimes
4, the Life and Death Bureau of the video;
Note:
November 2016, the music of the mobile phone supply chain arrears crisis outbreak, resulting in the music system capital chain break. Since then, music to see the negative news, the debt problem intensified.
Violent unrest ensued. July 2017, the 3 companies and Lok Vision Network chairman of the Jia Yueting couple of the 1.237 billion yuan assets of the judicial freeze. Subsequently, Jia Yue Pavilion resigned as chairman of the Music Vision network.
This allows us to start to pay attention to the best quality of the music video system in the survival of TV video-we want to know, this piece of music in the industry's most word-of-mouth business can be a sound development, and ultimately lead the music as a way out of the mire.
However, unfortunately, according to recent relevant channel feedback information shows that the current video television has come to a critical point of life and death. In the overall decline of the brand, any one of its units, it is difficult to be immune.
Wen/Spa
' Over the past two months, sales of the music video have plummeted. ' In the middle of November, a person close to the video television said to NetEase technology, ' online, the monthly sales of video TV has fallen to 1/10 to 1/5. Online, le View mall sales also fell to less than the original 1/10, Beijing-east days, such as the sale of the Cat channel sales of about half. '
' It's too bad to be bad. ' Another person who is very familiar with the video TV is feeling the technology of NetEase.
The deterioration of the situation is not a sudden occurrence, but it has lasted for some time. In November 2016, the Lok-Vision mobile phone supply chain arrears crisis, affected by the crisis, music television sales also began to decline. At the end of June 2017, the general meeting of the shareholders, Liang, the CEO of the Music network, revealed that from the first half of 2017, the television performance of negative growth.
However, before the video television has been regarded as the best quality of the system of assets, all parties think it will not be too much impact; After all, the 2013 was born with a ' subversive ' image, and so far its sales have surpassed 10 million units (according to the official figures), the first in the emerging Internet TV brands. In the peak of video sales in September 2016, the domestic market for every 5 TV sets sold, there are 1 video Super TV, this number in all TV brands in the industry, the entire channel first.
So now, what's wrong with the video TV?
Sales hit Bottom!
Sales of the video are falling sharply across the channel.
Le video tv sales and offline two channels, mainly on the line in Jingdong, the cat and music to see their own music mall sales, offline is mainly in the music under the line store Lepar sales. A former music staff told NetEase Technology, in 2016, the total sales of video TV, the line of the Jingdong cat accounted for more than 30%, le View mall about 30%, offline Lepar accounted for more than 40%.
The proportion of the data was confirmed by a number of video-viewing former employees, but was not officially confirmed by the music television.
Online sales, NetEase technology did not get the specific figures, but there is a publicly published list can be given some support. According to the Beijing-east side of the relevant data revealed that in 2016, the best sales of video television in Beijing East TV sales of the first or second, but in the 2017-year double 11, music video sales have been from the top 15 of the list to disappear.
Online, NetEase technology visited 10 stores in Haidian district of Beijing, then randomly visited 4 Lepar stores in Chaoyang District and Tongzhou District, and contacted the 5-Lepar in two or three-line cities and small counties.
All Lepar shopkeepers said to NetEase technology, the operation is now relatively bleak.
One shopkeeper told NetEase Science and technology, Music television 2016 sell best, peak when he a store of water can have 60.7 million yuan, now only a hundred thousand of, less than the original 1/3; A lepar shopkeeper in the county of the central province opened the shop to tell NetEase technology, 2017 years of Double 11, his shop only sold out 5 TV sets.
One person close to the video show that the number of video TV sales in the three quarter of 2017 years ago was about 1/3 of the same period in 2016.
Third party corroboration, from the monthly public release of the Oviyun Network "Global TV brand shipments Monthly Data Report": The synthesis of the report of the monthly data, video TV shipments are also gradually approaching ' bottom '.
Here need to explain, shipments are not sales, shipments refers to from the manufacturer to obtain sales channels of the number of televisions. It and the final sales of the television between a ' stock ', it is possible that the TV to the sales channels, backlog in the warehouse, did not sell. Overall, the more televisions are sold, the more the manufacturers produce, and the more televisions there are to channel. Conversely, the less. The trend of shipments and sales is generally consistent.
From this table can be seen: April 2017 (including April) before, the video of the output of television or 100,000 units, its April shipments of 387,000 units; However, by May, shipments fell directly to 80,000 units; In August, it fell to 24,000 units.
' This trend is very dangerous. ' A senior industry insider told NetEase Technology, in the color TV industry, annual shipments of 1 million is a threshold-to achieve this quantity is a certain size of the manufacturers, less than the annual shipments of 1 million units, the brand is difficult to foothold in the market. However, this figure is a ballpark figure, not a precise one.
The person to NetEase science and technology explanation, this is because color TV production is a more complex thing, need to integrate the resources of each production link, each year about 1 million shipments to roughly protect an independent brand of funds to operate; Shipments are too small, the turnover is limited, earning money may not be enough to support the operation of various production links.
According to the current situation, if the video can only maintain the existing shipments, its 2018 shipments are expected to be less than 1 million units.
Some shopkeepers said that during the peak season of November-December, there was a slight pick-up in sales of the video TV, but the promotion was seasonal, small and difficult to influence the overall situation.
On the decline in sales, NetEase technology has been to the music television official verification, but the deadline for the press, no response received.
Offline channel collapse
The sharp drop in TV sales has brought about a chain reaction.
The first is the Lepar shop under the large area of closure, which is a fatal blow to the video TV: The loss of Lepar stores, music video loss is not only the store to bring the TV sales, but also the future profit space.
The birth of the Lepar store began in August 2014 as the ' Lepar Super Partner ' program, which was opened by Le TV video. The reason to have to line up the store, because China's color TV sales line accounted for 70%-80%, online accounted for only 20%-30%. If you want to expand the scale, you have to go down the line.
Lepar is not only a store under the video tv online, but also the landing of the business model of video TV, because although the total number of video TV sales through Lepar stores accounted for only about 40%, but the quality of sales are online.
A person close to the music to see NetEase technology, music video TV business model is the hardware negative, television itself does not make money, plans to rely on the later stage of television advertising operations to make money; To achieve this, we must vigorously develop members, because only have a large number of video members, Le view of the ' side to buy ' and other operating mode can really fall. And the sales of Lok-view members mainly by line. ' We want two out of 10 people on the line to buy a member, but in fact 10 people inside about 0.2 people buy members, but offline sales, due to the sales staff of the active promotion, basically with members. ' The person told NetEase Technology.
Le view from 2015 began to shop under the line sales channels, the official disclosure of the number on the march, in 2016 reached 10,000. However, according to NetEase Science and technology, the current number of Lepar stores may be less than 2000, and this is a critical value of the internal estimates, if below this critical, the future of video television may be difficult to maintain the current market size and shrinking.
NetEase technology has seen many lepar stores disappearing.
2017 8, September, NetEase technology in accordance with LEPAR official website address has visited the Beijing Haidian District All Lepar stores (a total of 10), and randomly visited the Chaoyang District 3 stores and Tongzhou District 1 stores. However, the situation was not optimistic, only 4 of the 14 stores are still operating normally.
By December, things were getting worse. December 27, NetEase Science and technology reporter Lepar official online found that the entire Lepar store in Beijing has only 16 left. In 8, September, Lepar official online stores in Beijing are divided into various districts and counties show, a district has more than 10 or more.
NetEase Science and Technology random interview in Beijing and Shandong two shopkeepers situation in support of this point, one of the original 6 Lepar shop, in August has been closed 3; The other had 4 stores, and by December they had 2.
This is not a partial case. Close to the video tv people to NetEase science and technology to confirm that the offline Lepar large area of closed shop is a fact.
He revealed that Lepar shop online under the regional division of Demolition and disassembly, has shrunk from the original 16 regions to 12 large areas, and the ' big area ' is not the ' big area ': For example, Beijing originally belonged to the North China area, now Beijing is a separate large area. He also revealed that, from the feedback from the head of the region, each large area of the Lepar shopkeepers are only out, every day only heard who quit, but no new entrants.
Large districts are also nominal. The source said, Lepar shopkeepers are not willing to big district leaders, that is, the grid Lord, because the grid owners can not get any benefits. In the video planning, the grid owners theoretically have two advantages: the region's regional television wholesale power, in the region after the television to operate (the future operation of television advertising, etc.) the proceeds of the split. But now the TV can't sell, there's nothing else to talk about. ' he said.
This situation also in the NetEase technology interview was confirmed. Lepar shopkeepers told NetEase technology, did not feel to do the grid Lord has what too many benefits, but to pay a lot of deposit, a series of goods also to punish money, so we do grid Lord's enthusiasm is not high.
However, exactly how many lepar shops are left, said the person close to the music view, I am afraid that they do not, because the Lepar shop closed, and will not immediately give music feedback what information. Le see inside found Lepar shop closed, because the line of sales only left the original about 1/10-1/5, a lot of stores are not in stock. ' The meaning of the Lepar store is that it can bring some retail volume, if not sell goods, the store is meaningless. ' he added.
If according to the proportion of the decline in sales, probably estimated that the video TV still remaining stores, that should be 10,000 1/10-1/5, that is, 1000 to 2000. These people have explained to NetEase technology The origin of the critical value of 2000-this is based on the "video of the need to maintain sales" and ' each Lepar shop needs to sell how many TVs to survive ' these two figures.
Look at the volume of video TV that needs to be maintained. The person said that the music video before the total sale of about 10 million units, often the boot of the 7.008 billion units; The average life span of a television set is 3-5 years, and in 5 years, 10 million TVs are eliminated from the market after about 5 years; As a result, Lok sees the need to sell at least about 2 million TVs a year, and 5 years from now, the market will continue to have 10 million sets of video TV.
See how many TVs each Lepar store needs to sell to survive. According to the person to NetEase science and technology reporter said, a lepar shop every year about the need to sell 500 TV to survive (this number is the average, not a uniform figure, in the first-tier cities, selling 500 units may not survive, but in the small county, selling 500 units may be able to live very well) The person explains that this is an estimate of the cost, profit, etc. of a lepar shop.
In view of the music video cable and offline two channels, under the line to bear 50% of the sales to calculate, offline need to sell 1 million units per year, each Lepar shop needs to sell 500 units, sell 1 million units need 2000 stores.
If the store is below this value, the amount of video tv may be decreasing. and NetEase technology to get the Oviyun network data show that January 2017 to October, the total of video TV shipments of 1.421 million units, even with an average of 142,000 per month of the number of calculations, its annual shipments will also be 1.705 million units, less than 2 million target value; What's more, these 1.421 million Taichung 83.67% are shipped 2017 years ago, four months.
It was a feeble and precipitous decline.
About the offline store close related situation, NetEase technology has to the music television official verification, but as of the press, no response.
National Serial Goods Price confusion
Outside the closed Lepar store, the surviving Lepar shop has started a series of shipments to sell the music video.
This could put the video into a vicious circle.
According to NetEase Science and technology reporter understand, the national Lepar shopkeepers formed a variety of groups, one of the functions of these groups is mutual mobilization of supply: Because some lepar shopkeepers have goods, but can not find buyers; Some shopkeepers have buyers, but there is no supply.
This kind of behavior, the industry called ' string goods '. Under normal circumstances, in order to continue to develop, the General brand will resolutely put an end to this behavior, and the random string of goods, price reduction of the conduct of severe penalties; Because the string of goods will lead to a brand price system chaos, in their own brand within the price war, and make the brand price in the market quickly see the bottom, leading to channel business because of the thin profit and unwilling to sell, thus forming a vicious circle. Have the industry to tell NetEase technology, price system is a big taboo sales, lepar shopkeepers between the ' string of goods ' will lead to the loss of music to the channel to control; At the consumer end, because of the different sales prices seen in various channels, the brand will also be questioned, which will further lead to lower sales.
But for Lepar stores, the national string of goods has become the owner of the way to survive. Now many shopkeepers are holding hurriedly shipments, the goods cleared up after the state of mind, they do not care whether there is a penalty for this constraint.
In addition to the owner of each other to take goods, there are some other channels to get the goods (video TV). A lepar shopkeeper told NetEase Technology, many of the arrears is a TV to come, not to pay the money on TV. He gave NetEase science and technology reporter cited an example, such as music to do a lot of advertising, but not yet advertising company's money, the television to advertising companies, advertising companies need to find channels for the sale of debt, so as to recover the arrears; In order to try to ship, generally such channels to the television, the price will be lower, lepar shopkeepers get, sell the price will be correspondingly reduced, but there is still a difference can be made.
A shopkeeper to NetEase technology display Lepar Partnership crowd chat record, even a shopkeeper is willing to a TV loss of 2000 yuan for sale. ' Now it's time to ship. He said that his own shop's music video, each price is already lower than the Internet hundreds of yuan.
About the serial goods related situation, NetEase technology has been to the music television official verification, but as of the press, has not received a reply.
Collective silencing of supply chain
The biggest threat to the supply chain is the decline in sales and the collapse of the channel. If the supply chain is not given back in time, it will threaten the production of videoconferencing, which may cause further ripple effects. This, the music video phone is a cautionary tale.
It is to be sure that by April 2017, the generation of video TV factory has five: Crown Czech, Foxconn, Yi Chang, TCL, in the strong. In March 2017, le See has organized a number of media to visit the largest factory video television-Crown Jie Technology (Qingdao) Co., Ltd., this is the Wang Dayong Intelligent Terminal Supply Chain Senior vice president of the time when the answer to the media questions revealed.
But in the August 2017, there are insiders told NetEase technology, music video of the generation of the factory has only a crown jie. This information has not been directly verified and verified and is not fully validated. However, from a series of media reports in 2017, four of the remaining three-Foxconn, Yi Chang, tcl do have a situation.
In July 2017, the Beijing Business Daily reported that the Shenzhen Crown Tripod of Foxconn affiliated company has withdrawn from the new shareholder sequence, and since 2016, Shenzhen Crown Tripod has ceased to appear in the new shareholder list.
By October 2017, the new still owed Yi Chang shares 440 million yuan. November 30, Yi Chang shares issued a letter on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange inquiries reply to the announcement, which disclosed the cooperation with the video of the corresponding situation:
Yi Chang shares and music as a subsidiary of the Network music as a new beginning since February 2016 cooperation, sales of the main products for the television sets, 2016 annual company to music as a new realization of sales of 1.079 billion yuan; 2017 1 ~ September, the company to music as a new total to achieve sales of 1.141 billion yuan; As of the end of September 2017, the company on the music accounts receivable balance of 556 million yuan; October, the new cumulative to the company's money back about 116 million yuan.