The medical sector signs of recovery | is expected to make the wind force

Pharmaceutical Network January 4 hearing a long time ago, the pharmaceutical sector has been the A-plate stock market, the plate volume is large enough, large and small, nearly 300 listed companies; sector rotation effect is good enough, attention is high, but since After 2015, the pharmaceutical sector is gradually becoming "marginalized." Especially in 2017, the market for "taking medicine and drinking medicine" has only been "out of wines", while "taking medicine" has been tepid. The overall performance of the sector has lagged far behind that of Other consumer segments, even the ones that were traditionally thought of as "big ones," have thrown away a few blocks of the medical sector.

However, after two years or so of continuously adjusting the pharmaceutical sector, the segment TTM price-earnings ratio has dropped to 35 times or so, the overall industry growth began to show signs of recovery .Therefore, the 2018 pharmaceutical sector may usher in a long absence investment opportunities.

First of all, the gradual release of the impact of medical insurance control costs gradually.After previously, limited to the aging population, the slowdown in the growth of medical insurance and medical expenses surged, medical insurance funds in China is facing unprecedented pressure on payments. drug Negotiation cut prices came into being, so medicine The industry growth rate dropped significantly, which explains to some extent the overall decline of the pharmaceutical sector in the past two years.

However, after two years, the pharmaceutical companies have adapted to the new normal of medical insurance control fees. From the perspective of operation effect, the national public hospital The growth rate of medical expenses has been basically controlled below 10% per annum. Pharmaceutical companies began to pay more attention to the improvement of internal operation efficiency. By reducing the cost to offset the impact of terminal price increases, the overall profitability of pharmaceutical enterprises could bottom out.

Second, the consensus assessment of innovative drugs won the policy spring.On October 8, 2017, the CPC Central Committee General Office and the State Council General Office issued the "Notice on Deepening the Reform of the Examination and Approval System for Drug Reform medical instruments Innovative opinions, "comprehensively enhance the review and approval efficiency, to encourage innovation in medical equipment, which marks the innovative drugs were raised to the national strategic level, the introduction of opinions will greatly accelerate the pharmaceutical enterprise New drug research and development, listing process, to the industry has brought huge new momentum.

On December 29, 2017, the Drug Evaluation Center of the State Food and Drug Administration released the first lists of breeds that passed the consensus assessment. The first batch of 17 products were approved, involving 12 varieties and 7 enterprises. With regard to the consistent assessment of the supply-side reform as the pharmaceutical industry, there is a first-stage result. Under the background of medical insurance control fees, the related enterprises are expected to gain greater market share through first-mover advantage.

According to previous plans of the State Food and Drug Administration, the consistency assessment of 289 listed generic drugs will be completed before the end of 2018, meaning that relevant enterprises must race against time and seize the market advantage this year, and have passed the consensus assessment and have strong ownership Strength follow-up to be the first to pass the consensus assessment of pharmaceutical companies, will receive priority procurement, health care support, production support, publicity and other policy bonuses.In my opinion, to encourage medical equipment innovation in the context of R & D upstream clinical CRO enterprises Institutions engaged in drug research and development) and innovative pharmaceutical companies themselves will benefit significantly.

Therefore, the investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical industry in 2018 will be significantly increased compared to 2017. Innovative drugs and consistency assessment will be the most important investment opportunities. In addition, consumption promotion-driven traditional Chinese medicine and the impact of the "two-vote system" , Pharmaceutical industry chain continued to enhance the boom can also be concerned about.

We can focus on research and development of innovative innovative pharmaceutical companies such as Hengrui Pharma, Fosun Pharma, Livzon Group, Anke Bio, Pulitzer Pharmaceutical, Tiger Medical, etc .; and benefit from consistent assessment companies such as Huahai Pharmaceutical , Jingxin Pharmaceutical, Xinli Tai, Huahai Pharmaceutical, China Resources Double Crane; as well as high-end Chinese medicine enterprises such as East donkey-hide gelatin, Pien Tze Huang, Yunnanbaiyao, etc .; and pharmaceutical chain enterprises, including people, Yifeng pharmacy, Sinopharm Accord .