Polyolefins generally out of the V market in 2017, the first half of the expected demand bubble burst, the price pressure drop, prices bottomed out in the second half rebound, but showing the off-season is not short, the peak season is not prosperous situation. 2018 polyolefin market apparent demand growth However, the ban on import of materials and the normalization of domestic environmental inspectors can not be neglected. With the demand side of the downstream industry still maintaining the rigid demand, the growth rate is broadly stable. It is estimated that the price of 2018 The center of gravity slightly shifted up from 2017. At the same time, the change in the ratio of PE to PP production is expected to result in the prices of both of them returning to the level of 2013 basically unchanged.
On the supply side, the apparent consumption of PE is expected to reach 29.27 million tons in 2018, a year-on-year growth rate of 9.50%, a slight decrease from the growth rate of last year but still exceeding the CAGR of 8.02% for 4 years and PP apparent consumption Volume is expected to reach 29.44 million tons, an increase of 7.92% over the previous year, down from last year and lower than the compound growth rate of 8.41% for the last 4 years. Although the growth rate of new material supply in 2018 has declined compared with that in 2017, However, the ratio of PE to PP production changes greatly, and PE is more abundant than PP. In terms of materials replenishment, the impact of the ban on manufacturing in 2018 is now more difficult to assess, mainly due to industrial and living sources The situation of the import of waste plastics is unclear, and the actual implementation of the ban on obsolescence remains to be seen. It is conservatively estimated that the rate of decrease of imported materials in 2018 may be slowed down in the second half of 2017 and the annual import of PE materials will be reduced by about 750,000 Ton, PP import expected to reduce roughly 580,000 tons around the same time, the domestic environmental remediation will be normalized, the rate of domestically produced feed back will continue to hover at low levels, the entire feed back market continues to shrink is undoubted, this part of the material back gap Will be replaced by the new material, the overall supply side A greater impact on the late market game lies in the end is to reduce the return of more material or more new material increases.
Demand side, downstream polyolefin to fast consumer goods, consumer goods, the product involves a wide area, the use of short cycle, non-durable goods accounted for the main proportion of these characteristics make polyolefin downstream from other industrial products, the demand is relatively rigid, by Macroeconomic impact is less macroeconomic more than just affect the inventory changes in the industry chain, thereby affecting the apparent demand, the actual demand has little effect.According to PetroChina statistics, polyolefins in 2012 after the end of rapid growth, 2016 to 2021 The average growth rate of domestic polyolefin market demand can still reach about 6%, to maintain a relatively stable situation in 2018. Downstream of polyolefins in 2018 to promote industrial consolidation and upgrading of environmental protection, the minimum nominal thickness of the national standard membrane doubled, the courier industry Still showing good momentum of rapid development, stimulated by conservative estimates of demand growth at least unchanged with 2017, the overall stability.
Unilateral strategy, a large number of domestic and foreign production capacity expected to put into operation in the first quarter, the supply pressure is large, and warehouse receipts in March are facing cancellation, the market has some selling pressure, with the Spring Festival holiday factors, downstream demand in the off-season, the price is low May appear in the eve of the first quarter of the Spring Festival.Second and third quarters of the relative concentration of maintenance is good, downstream peak season also started, as well as the first quarter of over-pessimistic repair, the price should bottom out in the fourth quarter, the basic supply of new basic Will stabilize the supply of domestic, with the pre-recovery equipment to resume operation, once again abundant supply, but the downstream is still in demand season, the price may be high turmoil, a slight fall.
Arbitrage strategy, short-term recommendation PP15 anti-sleeve and L-PP anti-sleeve, PP15 anti-sleeve logic: MTO unit profits have dropped to historic lows, this loss can not be long-term continuation of the market will gradually MTO device parking or down , Far PP is expected to be harder to further worsen, PP will generally appear in recent months, the pattern of monthly premium; L-PP anti-set logic: market speculation in 2018 a large number of new PE equipment expected to put into operation, and PP imports less dependent on foreign PP-3MA positive and L-PP positive sets, PP-3MA positive sets of logic: the current PP and MA spread has narrowed To a lower historical level, MTP, MTO plant losses serious, this loss can not be extended long-term status, some devices have been parked or reduced load, such as Xingxing Energy, Ningbo Fude, etc. With 2018 is the methanol launch period, the market It is generally believed that two sets of Iranian units will also be put into operation in the first half of 2018, and the volume of imports will be significantly increased while there is no big incentive for the supply of PP. L-PP is a set of logic: new production capacity will be added to foreign PE in January and February 2018 Reassessment of start-up situation, Ruosuo Labor less than expected, may usher in a retaliatory rebound, pessimistic expectations of the early repair. Long-term recommendation L-PP anti-set, the main logic: the domestic PP production capacity has been put on the peak in recent years, production capacity growth continued to decline, is expected in 2018 Capacity growth rate of 7.2%, well below the 9-year compound annual growth rate of 11.3%, while the PE side, both at home and abroad have entered the expansion of production capacity is expected in 2018 global PE capacity reached 108.7 million tons in 2020 will reach 12530 In addition, the domestic PP industry product transformation is urgent, a large number of general-purpose materials (homopolymer PP) are expected to be replaced by specialized materials (copolymerization PP) in 2018, all of which will be in the The status of bizarre goods, the price of PP drawing provide a good support.