On the last day of 2017, the last macro data released during the year can be regarded as a powerful leopard tail for China's economy and a New Year's Day gift for the upcoming 2018.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, as of December 2017, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 51.6%, though still a slight drop of 0.2% from the previous month but still above 51% Higher level, indicating that the manufacturing industry to maintain steady growth momentum of development.
In fact, the PMI has remained above 51% for 15 consecutive months since October last year, with some 52% of the individual months in 2017. According to the annual PMI of the past 10 years, The result of 2017 is even more outstanding - the annual average of 51.6% has also become the highest point in seven years since 2010.
High-tech manufacturing and other improvements significantly
In his reading of PMI, Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics Survey Service Industry Survey Center, said that the PMI for manufacturing continued to expand, with an overall steady growth of 51.6%, significantly higher than the overall level of 1.3% last year .
On the demand side, the breakdown shows that the new PMI for manufacturing in December registered a 53.4% drop of 0.2% over the previous month; the index of imports registered a 51.2% increase and the growth rate rose 0.2%; the index of new export orders recorded 51.9%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month and the highest for the year.
Guotai Junan Research pointed out that the Christmas led the euro zone, Japan, the United States manufacturing PMI index continued to be in an expansion stage, strong external demand led China's exports to better import index rose 0.2 percentage points to 51.2%, domestic demand remains strong, and infrastructure, real estate investment In terms of production, the manufacturing index for December was 54.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.
CITIC Securities fixed income analysts obviously believe that manufacturing in December 2017 continued to maintain high growth, but the growth rate has slowed down.December by the winter limited production and other environmental policies, the manufacturing sector has been hit a certain extent, the national The blast furnace operating rate continued to maintain below the historical low of 63%.
Huatai Securities chief macroeconomic analyst Li Chao told reporters that the annual average of PMI in 2017 was 51.6%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from 2016 and consistent with the slow GDP growth in 2017, indicating a steady ending of the economy in 2017.
Li Chao believes that the improvement of high-tech manufacturing and consumer industries is the most obvious, significantly higher than the level in 2016, but also higher than the overall manufacturing level.At the same time, as the Spring Festival approaching, but also the good conditions related to the consumer industry to improve.
Data show that in December 2017, the PMI for high-tech manufacturing and consumer products sectors was 53.8% and 55.48% respectively, up 0.6 and 2.3 percentage points from the previous month.
Guotai Junan Research pointed out that high-quality development is the fundamental requirement for future economic work. In fact, the toughness of the Chinese economy will be reflected in the structural improvement in 2017. Although the traditional industries are weaker, the high-tech industry is slowly filling up even if In the context of production cut-off for environmental protection, the economy has not seen any sharp drop.
According to Chen Zhongtao, an analyst at China Logistics Information Center, the stability of economic development is enhanced in 2017. Based on the PMI's judgment, the annual economic growth is about 6.9% .Recently, the PMI survey shows that the enterprises are full of confidence in the new year's economic development and the Expectations for Production and Operation Expectations It is estimated that economic development in 2018 will gradually move towards the basic track of stable and sustainable development and the economic growth will be maintained at a moderately reasonable range of 6.5% or so.
December 27, 2017, China Economist, Institute of Industrial Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released The fourth quarter of 2017 'China Economist Hot Survey' shows that economists are expecting a slight increase in the full-year 2017 economic growth rate Up, while economists with a growth rate of 6.8% accounted for the most, accounting for 32.5%, up 10% from the previous quarter's survey. Economists judged at 6.8% and 6.9% of the total accounted for nearly 60% of the total.
Manufacturing PMI in the past year the monthly index (%)
Data Source: Zou Li, National Bureau of Statistics Charting
2018 need to focus on business costs
While China's economy is getting steady in 2017 and laying a solid foundation for the development in 2018, we must also pay attention to some new changes.
Data show that in December 2017 the PMI index, the purchase price index of major raw materials and the ex-factory price index was 62.2% and 54.4%, respectively, 2.4 and 0.6 percentage points higher than the previous month, both fell again for two consecutive months after the recovery. Among them, the petroleum processing and coking industry, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry and other industries prices rose significantly.
Guotai Junan Research pointed out that the purchase price of raw materials and the ex-factory price index rebounded sharply in two consecutive months, with the more restrictive production stoppage in December 2017, mainly due to high energy-consuming industries subject to supply repression, but as 2016 Base year high base, PPI is expected to fall.
Chen Zhongtao said that with the rising raw material prices, corporate costs have risen in the second half of 2017, reflecting the increase in the number of raw materials, the number of enterprises increased significantly, the proportion of the surveyed enterprises reached an average of 37%, higher than The same period in 2016 10 percentage points.
Correspondingly, the enterprises also reflected the increase in transportation costs, and along with the recovery of market demand and the acceleration of industrial restructuring, the supply of energy and raw materials was localized and phased in. The average proportion of enterprises reflecting this problem was 7.8% , Up 2.3 percentage points from 2016.
This will also have an impact on the profits of enterprises. It is obviously believed that the purchase price index of raw materials goes broadly wider than the ex-factory price index and margins of manufacturing enterprises are under pressure. In November 2017, the profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size increased significantly In the context of a slowdown, the profitability of industrial enterprises in December is hardly expected to improve significantly.
Guotai Junan Research predicts that the supply-side structural reform will shift from 'subtraction' to 'addition' in 2018, so the price rise caused by the reduction of production capacity will be weaker and the price will drop slightly over the same period last year; Look, the profits of downstream industries may improve.
In addition, the continuous decline in the index of practitioners also attracted attention, data show that in December 2017 manufacturing practitioners index continued the trend of decline in five months, recorded the lowest for the year 48.5%.
Chen Zhongtao said that along with the enterprises to speed up the transformation and upgrading, innovation and development, there have been structural employment contradictions.Enterprises reflect the adaptation to new business development, application of new technologies, new models to promote the recruitment of professionals is difficult, such professionals are in high demand , The supply is insufficient. The proportion of enterprises reflecting this problem throughout the year averaged 14%, 3.1 percentage points higher than the previous year.
Guotai Junan Research pointed out that overall, in the case of better overall economic supply and demand, the reduction in personnel means that the economy is more efficient and more automated. However, we should also pay attention to the impact of the restriction on environmental protection on employment, which is the case Under the people's livelihood social security fiscal spending must keep pace.