National Bureau of Statistics service survey center
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing
In December 2017, China's manufacturing purchasing managers index was 51.6%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month but still reaching the annual average. The manufacturing industry maintained its steady growth.
According to the scale of the enterprises, the PMI for large enterprises increased slightly by 0.1% from the previous month and maintained a rapid growth. The PMI for medium-sized enterprises was 50.4%, slightly down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month and continued to expand. The PMI for small enterprises At 48.7%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month and below the critical point.
From the classification index, among the five sub-indices that make up the manufacturing PMI, the production index and new order index are above the critical point, and the raw material inventory index, practitioners index and supplier delivery time index are below the critical point.
The production index was 54.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month and still above the critical point, indicating steady growth in manufacturing production with a slight increase.
The new order index was 53.4%, down 0.2 ppt from the previous month and staying above the critical point, indicating that the manufacturing market demand continued to release with a slight slowdown.
The raw material inventory index was 48.0%, down 0.4 percentage point from the previous month and below the critical point, indicating that the inventories of major raw materials in the manufacturing industry continued to decrease.
Employee index was 48.5%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month and below the critical point, indicating a drop in the employment volume of manufacturing enterprises.
The delivery time index for suppliers was 49.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and below the critical point, indicating that delivery of manufacturing raw material suppliers was slowed down.
| Table 1 China's manufacturing PMI and composition index (seasonally adjusted) | ||||||
| Unit:% | ||||||
|
| PMI |
| ||||
| produce | new order | Raw materials in stock | Practitioners | Supplier delivery time | ||
| December 2016 | 51.4 | 53.3 | 53.2 | 48.0 | 48.9 | 50.0 |
| January 2017 | 51.3 | 53.1 | 52.8 | 48.0 | 49.2 | 49.8 |
| February 2017 | 51.6 | 53.7 | 53.0 | 48.6 | 49.7 | 50.5 |
| March 2017 | 51.8 | 54.2 | 53.3 | 48.3 | 50.0 | 50.3 |
| April 2017 | 51.2 | 53.8 | 52.3 | 48.3 | 49.2 | 50.5 |
| May 2017 | 51.2 | 53.4 | 52.3 | 48.5 | 49.4 | 50.2 |
| June 2017 | 51.7 | 54.4 | 53.1 | 48.6 | 49.0 | 49.9 |
| July 2017 | 51.4 | 53.5 | 52.8 | 48.5 | 49.2 | 50.1 |
| August 2017 | 51.7 | 54.1 | 53.1 | 48.3 | 49.1 | 49.3 |
| September 2017 | 52.4 | 54.7 | 54.8 | 48.9 | 49.0 | 49.3 |
| October 2017 | 51.6 | 53.4 | 52.9 | 48.6 | 49.0 | 48.7 |
| November 2017 | 51.8 | 54.3 | 53.6 | 48.4 | 48.8 | 49.5 |
| December 2017 | 51.6 | 54.0 | 53.4 | 48.0 | 48.5 | 49.3 |
| Table 2 Relevant indicators (seasonally adjusted) | ||||||||
| Unit:% | ||||||||
|
| New export Order | import | Purchase quantity | The purchase price of the main raw materials | Factory price | Finished products in stock | In hand Order | Production and operation activities are expected |
| December 2016 | 50.1 | 50.3 | 52.1 | 69.6 | 58.8 | 44.4 | 46.2 | 58.2 |
| January 2017 | 50.3 | 50.7 | 52.6 | 64.5 | 54.7 | 45.0 | 46.3 | 58.5 |
| February 2017 | 50.8 | 51.2 | 51.4 | 64.2 | 56.3 | 47.6 | 46.0 | 60.0 |
| March 2017 | 51.0 | 50.5 | 53.4 | 59.3 | 53.2 | 47.3 | 46.1 | 58.3 |
| April 2017 | 50.6 | 50.2 | 51.9 | 51.8 | 48.7 | 48.2 | 45.0 | 56.6 |
| May 2017 | 50.7 | 50.0 | 51.5 | 49.5 | 47.6 | 46.6 | 45.4 | 56.8 |
| June 2017 | 52.0 | 51.2 | 52.5 | 50.4 | 49.1 | 46.3 | 47.2 | 58.7 |
| July 2017 | 50.9 | 51.1 | 52.7 | 57.9 | 52.7 | 46.1 | 46.3 | 59.1 |
| August 2017 | 50.4 | 51.4 | 52.9 | 65.3 | 57.4 | 45.5 | 46.1 | 59.5 |
| September 2017 | 51.3 | 51.1 | 53.8 | 68.4 | 59.4 | 44.2 | 47.4 | 59.4 |
| October 2017 | 50.1 | 50.3 | 53.2 | 63.4 | 55.2 | 46.1 | 45.6 | 57.0 |
| November 2017 | 50.8 | 51.0 | 53.5 | 59.8 | 53.8 | 46.1 | 46.6 | 57.9 |
| December 2017 | 51.9 | 51.2 | 53.6 | 62.2 | 54.4 | 45.8 | 46.3 | 58.7 |
Note
1. The main indicators to explain
The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an index compiled and compiled from the monthly survey results of the purchasing managers of an enterprise. It covers all aspects of purchasing, production and circulation of enterprises and is the first in the world to monitor macroeconomic trends One of the sex index, has a strong prediction, early warning role.PMI usually 50% as the economic strength of the demarcation point, PMI above 50%, reflecting the economic expansion of the manufacturing sector; below 50%, reflecting the manufacturing economy shrink.
2. Survey area
Involved in the "Classification of National Economic Industries" (GB / T4754-2011) in the manufacturing sector in 31 industries, 3000 survey samples.
3. Method of investigation
Manufacturing purchasing managers survey using PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method, the manufacturing industry as a major category, the sample size of the industry by its added value accounted for the proportion of total added value of manufacturing distribution, the use of samples and the main business Business income proportional to the probability of extraction.
The investigation was carried out by the investigation team directly under the State Statistics Bureau. Monthly survey was conducted on the purchasing managers of the enterprises by using the national statistical networking direct reporting system.
4. Calculation method
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Questionnaires Involved Production Capacity, New Orders, Export Orders, Existing Orders, Finished Goods Stocks, Purchases, Imports, Purchasing Prices, Ex-Works Prices, Raw Materials Stocks, Employees, Supplier Delivery Time, Production and Business Activities Expectation 13. The Diffusion Index is calculated separately for each question, which is the percentage of firms answering the positive answer plus half of the same percentage, with the ex-factory price index released in January 2017.
The PMI is a composite index weighted by five diffusion indices (sub-indices). The five sub-indices and their weights are based on their pro-economic impact on the economy, including: new order indices, weights of 30%; production index, the weight is 25%; practitioners index, the weight is 20%; supplier distribution time index, weight is 15%; raw material inventory index, weight is 10% .Among them, The indices are inverse indices and are inverted during the composite PMI composite index.
Season adjustment
The PMI survey is a monthly survey that is subject to seasonal factors and has volatile data. The published PMI composite index and each sub-index are seasonally adjusted data. Since January 2017, the index for the production and operation activity has been improved Season adjustment method, and historical data revision.