First, the first Chinese mobile phone maker to market tide
Put aside these days by the media boom millet upcoming IPO talk about next year may IPO also includes another top five Chinese mobile phone brands free brands, specifically who is not always disclosed, it is time to know.
Mobile phone brands, the mainland mobile phone design company Wen Thai has been listed, the dragon flag has been queuing, financial investment just finished Huaqin believe it has entered the final preparations for the IPO stage.
Second, China's Ministry of Commerce has the opportunity to affect the development of the smartphone industry for the first time
There was once a foreign executive with Lao Qiu said that from the market and status, there are only two countries in the world: China and the United States, there are only two clouds floating in the sky: China and the United States.
Before the U.S. government had always dominated the industry strategy, this time the Chinese government finally ushered in the first chance.
Broadcom acquisition of Qualcomm, Qualcomm acquisition of NXP, the trend of two mergers and acquisitions will affect the future development of the mobile phone industry pattern, I believe no one in the mobile phone industry doubts.
Broadcom will be held in March next year Qualcomm shareholders will nominate new directors, the EU will soon be the antitrust review of the acquisition of NXP Qualcomm, will expire in April the Chinese Ministry of Commerce review will directly affect the successful acquisition of Qualcomm NXP.
If China's Ministry of Commerce is able to pass the antitrust review of Qualcomm's acquisition of NXP as soon as possible, Broadcom's acquisition of Qualcomm will face tremendous financial pressure.
If China's Ministry of Commerce postponed the approval, once Broadcom has taken over the board of directors of Qualcomm, it may directly give up its acquisition of NXP.
Logic is more complex, do not understand? That you do not understand the industry, do not understand does not matter.
Third, Samsung's global market share continued to decline, India copied the pattern of China's mobile phone market
As I said last year, the Samsung strategy in China has decided the global trend. Unfortunately, Samsung has not changed and now it has no ability to change.
Over the past few years, Samsung's biggest mistake is to easily give up the Chinese market. If LaoJie is the Samsung boss, even if the annual loss of 10 billion US dollars, will not let, including Huawei, OPPO, VIVO, millet easy profit.
Because once the Chinese brand to make a profit, the first thing to do is erode Samsung overseas markets, while India bear the brunt.
In the fourth quarter of this year, Xiaomi's market share in India has been flat with Samsung. Samsung's market share in India, which has as high as 40%, has already been halved. Next year, Samsung will continue to slide with the development of Chinese brands such as Xiaomi, OPPO and VIVO.
Chinese mobile phone brand to seize the global market share of Samsung will be the main theme of the 2018 mobile phone market.
Fourth, Lenovo, ZTE, TCL will face the fate of life and death turning point
Starting from 2016, including Xiaomi, OPPO and VIVO, they have started large-scale overseas markets, mainly in South Asia and Southeast Asia.
Lenovo, ZTE, TCL Although the loss of the domestic market is still pretty good performance, rooted in the good performance of the European and American markets, these markets millet OV over the past few years no time to take into account, but certainly will not give up the next two years.
Once Lenovo, ZTE, TCL in the overseas market experience millet OV, if the three companies do not change, the result is self-evident.
Fifth, China's second and third tier mobile phone brands survive more difficult
The overall pattern of the domestic mobile phone market has been set, and foreign countries are also showing signs of clumsyness. Mobile phone brands without a base will become increasingly difficult.
With the expansion of overseas brands in China, even if the space left for second-tier brands overseas is getting smaller and smaller, it is not surprising that the risk of failure of the mobile phone suppliers will become more and more prominent. The tragedy of the LeTV cell phones may be staged at any time .
Sixth, the rise of China's mobile phone brand, the real battle in the United States
China's mobile phone brands can monopolize the Chinese market, but also monopolize the Indian market, but in order to achieve international brands, the United States is the real battleground.
At present, Apple, Samsung accounted for more than 70% share of the US mobile phone market, ZTE, TCL, Lenovo, although good, but are low and can no longer low low-end phones.
Many poor Americans, China's low-end mobile phones can occupy a certain market share is normal, in the United States over Samsung is the symbol of the rise of China's brand.
If you lose the U.S. market, Samsung mobile phones will completely decline.
Unfortunately, it is estimated that 2018 will not come this day, Huawei has just announced its entry into the United States market, want to have performance within a year, it is difficult! Not only Huawei, millet is also difficult!
In 2018, it is already a good sign that China's handset brands can gain a foothold in the mid-to-high-end market in the United States. What else?
In short, although China's mobile phone brand is very strong, the global point of view is still in a catch-up position.
Seven, millet is essentially an investment model, the Internet model does not exist
For so many years, many people think that the internet mobile phone has created millet, but in reality, everyone is wrong.
The real achievement of millet is the investment model, regardless of millet Internet ecology or intelligent hardware ecology, the essence is investment ecology.
None of the brands that mimic the millet internet handset are successful because the success of millet is not a success of internet handsets.
Eight, the patent will not become a stumbling block to the Chinese mobile phone sea,
Often talk about the Chinese mobile phone to the sea, there are always people jumping out of that patent is a stumbling block to China's mobile phone.
Although there will be more and more disputes over patent infringement in Chinese mobile phone brands, these affirmations will hardly deter the pace and determination of entering overseas.
As early as a few years ago, China's major mobile phone brands have begun to attach importance to patent licenses. For example, millet has signed patent licenses with Nokia, Microsoft and Dolby. Other brands are also actively negotiating.
Due to the intervention and supervision of the NDRC, the implementation of the principle of fairness, fairness and non-discrimination in the licensing of Chinese mobile phone enterprises is guaranteed. All these problems can be solved in the next few years.
The purpose of litigation is reconciliation, over 90% of the patent litigation ended in reconciliation, the so-called patent is China's mobile phone stumbling block to the sea is a false proposition.
Nine, the real sense of Android Face ID will not come until the second half
Rely on Face ID, Apple technology once again lead Android manufacturers more than one year, just like the previous fingerprint recognition.
Full screen era of the best technology portfolio is certainly Face ID no doubt, although fingerprinting identification is not bad, based on Difficult and Face ID comparable
Even if the screen fingerprinting, it is estimated that the real popularity will have to wait until the second half of next year.
It is said that full screen mobile phone shipments will exceed 900 million units in the next year. Objectively speaking, there is no Face ID or fingerprints on the screen, so it is really not a true full screen.
Ten, the biggest opportunity for China's mobile phone lies in the field of security
iPhone X is very cattle, selling is also very expensive, but really bring consumers a revolutionary upgrade, Face ID is just a man-machine interface changes.
The real revolution in cell phones is not coming from the foldable screen, not the Face ID, not even the 5G and the Internet of Things
The wave of next wave of cell phone changes certainly comes from security because only safer handsets will import more core applications, whether electronic ID cards, social security cards or hotel room cards.
Unfortunately, the interface, the standard is not uniform impede the development of China's mobile phone in the field of security, the mobile phone China Union has been trying for the past two years, hoping to bear fruit next year.
China has the ability to control the pace of mobile security era, the premise is that we can unite.
Attachment: "Old Man: 2017 Top Ten Trend Analysis of Smartphone Industry"
Overall, the smart phone market will be relatively stable in 2017. Especially for China's handset brands, there will be no major changes in the overall pattern of handsets in China due to the inability to see major channels and technological changes. However, some details of the trends should still be Attract attention
First, China's smart phone market, the overall pattern of change, Huawei OV continue to lead the market
Although there is no open data, just over the past 2016 for Huawei, OPPO, VIVO is clearly a good harvest, the three companies are not listed companies, it is difficult for outsiders to know the real specific profitability, but from the industry analysis and speculation From the point of view, the profitability of the three companies should all be around Rmb10bn, which may seem very popular. However, compared with more than 10bn profit-making efforts by home appliance manufacturers Gree, Midea and Haier, the Chinese mobile revolution is far from successful and needs to continue its efforts.
Huawei OV has become the leading group of China's smart phone brands far ahead, of course, here refers to the level of profitability, sales alone, in terms of, and including millet, Lenovo or even acoustic, TCL, Jin and did not form a clear gap, In 2017, the three companies have limited space for growth in the Mainland and overseas expansion is the general trend.
Second, going overseas is the identifier of the 2017 smart phone in China
If 2016 is the first year for Chinese smartphone brand manufacturers to fully enter overseas markets, after going through some attempts, we believe that in 2017 China's mobile phone brands will step up overseas.
Although Huawei has been devoting itself to overseas markets in these years, the gap between Samsung and Huawei in the world is still clear. Huawei, as the challenger of Samsung, has the shortages of global channels and brands. Although Huawei has a good market in Europe, Europe's population base is too low, compared with many emerging markets is not enough, Huawei to enter the global market, need to solve the unified channel and brand strategy, or in the next few years is likely to OV beyond.
Although OV has little promotion of marching into overseas markets, both companies have achieved good results in the past two years. Unlike Huawei, OV has basically copied domestic strategy, distribution channels and large-scale promotion of high-end , This model is very easy to make breakthroughs in emerging markets, of course, the two companies are definitely not limited to emerging markets, OPPO has announced its entry into the United States market, I believe that access to Europe and Huawei's direct PK is not far away.
Compared with the brands that have made good business overseas such as Lenovo, ZTE, TCL, and Voice over the past few years, Huawei OV has more high-end positioning and poses greater challenges. However, once a breakthrough is made, the pressure on Samsung will be even greater. Huawei OV, etc. Full access to overseas, Lenovo and other traditional advantages of overseas manufacturers is not a small pressure, if the mainland mobile phone market has been set pattern, overseas brands in Chinese shopping has just begun.
The next ten years is the golden decade for Chinese brands to go overseas. Whether we can have a group of handset manufacturers with international influence makes us wait and see.
Third, Samsung's China strategy determines the global trend
Samsung mobile in recent years in China unfavorable, the market share dropped from more than 20% to below the current 5%, of course, Note 7 explosion factors, but the face of the rise of Huawei OV ineffective is the key, presumably this year Samsung Channel adjustment is to deal with the competition of the three companies, but in the face of profitability has greatly enhanced Huawei OV, objectively speaking, a bit late.
If Laoshe is the leader of Samsung, Huawei will have to suppress the outbreak of OV even if the loss in the Chinese market is too high. As soon as the Huawei OV grows up, the three companies will get sufficient financial support to march overseas so that the Samsung overseas market will be fatal Threat, after all, emerging markets in the next few years is the main increase of smartphones.
Once Samsung can not suppress the growth of Huawei OV in the mainland market in 2017, future Samsung mobile phones will face increasing profit pressure in the world.
Fourth, chip makers will invest more in mobile phone companies
Over the past few years, Internet companies and venture capital companies have been investing in mobile phone brands in China. However, this trend has basically come to an end in 2016. In the past year, Qualcomm, MediaTek and Zhanrui as chip providers have been trying to invest in mobile phone brands. Among them, The acquisition of Shanghai Aerospace Science and Technology, has also been involved in triple trading company acquired German King, Qualcomm has invested in millet before, now including Qualcomm MediaTek is also trying to invest in other handset manufacturers, guessed good, in 2017 the two companies stake in those companies will see Knowing that chip companies are actively investing in mobile phone brands is the best way to solidify their customers in the increasingly clear environment of the smart phone market.
Fifth, OLED panel, memory, high-end image sensors and other key components out of stock or throughout the year
The overall innovation of smart phones is not enough, but the OLED panel has become the mainstream of the market trend. Although BOE and Sharp are all actively building factories, it is unlikely that mass production will occur in 2017. Samsung will still dominate the OLED panel. Apple introduced the OLED panel, the production capacity shortage will be more serious.
The reason for the out-of-stock of memory and high-end cameras is the increase of mobile phone memories and the gradual popularization of dual cameras. As the construction and capacity release will take time, the dramatic improvement in out-of-stock in 2017 will be as hard to solve.
Out of stock for the second and third tier devices more core brand impact, will also directly promote the mobile phone market to further reshuffle.
Sixth, second and third tier mobile phone brands to accelerate consolidation and reorganization
No matter for Lenovo, ZTE, TCL or LeTV, 360 and so on all these tough years in 2016, giving up or sticking to the management of these manufacturers is certainly considered a year's theme.
Relative to the Huawei OV and the sharp rise in earnings, profitability and survival pressures of second and third tier brands are growing. Lenovo claims that it will make a profit in 2017, which is a good guess. It is based on the reduction of investment in the mainland market, the main market in the future Increasing from overseas, Lenovo, ZTE, TCL and other overseas brands have a certain advantage, the short term strategic relocation of mainland China is clearly a key overseas layout is a wise choice, or with Huawei OV expansion in overseas markets, are Is the problem
360 shares Obviously, Zhou Hongyi is about to give up the signal of the mobile phone, it is said that Zhou Hongyi has given the Great God brand hundred abundance, the resurrection of the Great God may not far, has been rumored Coolpad will acquire the hammer, but because of the riot of funds affected the cool music , The probability of acquisition in the short term is not estimated, but the music as the integration of mobile phones and cool or probability events.
Seven, offline channels continue to flourish
Channel reorganization is the main theme of the 2016 Chinese mobile phone brands. The rise of OV benefited from the outbreak of offline channels. In fact, not only OV and Jinnai are benefiting from the channel. In spite of the hype of Internet brands, both companies achieved good results in 2016 Performance, sales of more than 40 million Jin Li, for the low-end market and operators hundred Li Feng sales also exceeded 20 million, the key is that both companies have made good profits, Zhou Hongyi hundred Li Fung shares a wise select.
Huawei's Thousand Counties Project, Xiaomi's New Channel Campaign, and OV's Strong First-tier and Second-tier Cities are the strategic arrangements for improving the offline distribution of handset brands. In the Chinese market, the channel will always be an important or even decisive factor in determining the trend of handset brands.
Eight, Huawei OV total sales will exceed Samsung.
The total sales volume of Huawei OV in 2016 is less than 30 million away from Samsung. According to the current market, the three companies have predicted to suppliers in 2017 that surpassing Samsung's sales is a big probability. However, the increase in the domestic market is limited and the overseas layout takes time , Three companies in the global market to challenge Samsung still need a few years or even longer, to stabilize the mainland market to maintain the best profitability is Samsung's premise can overcome.
Nine, the mainland mobile phone patent war full probability of eruption
2016 mobile phone patent battle surging, Qualcomm sued Meizu, Ericsson sued in India Jinli, millet, Dolby sued OV in India, Huawei sued Tianlong in Guangzhou, a variety of lawyers letter like snow flying, the patent war to the outside world Trigger.
Many patent giants such as Ericsson, Nokia, Huawei, ZTE and Interdigital all raise flags for Chinese handset makers, but they are really going to want to launch large-scale patent war. They think that they still need changes in the environment. Although Trump may take more power in China Pressure on the protection of intellectual property rights, a variety of patent litigation will continue to increase, the full patent payment era of mobile phones in China 2017 or impossible.
The protection of intellectual property rights is a trend, but also the guarantee for the mainland to achieve innovation and upgrading, but the distance has to wait.
Ten, China's mobile Internet model to explore the end
Millet is not as good as the Internet phone is an Internet channel mobile phone, Internet investment has experienced years of tide will completely come to an end in 2017, as the music financing of 15 billion yuan Although the music has solved the financial difficulties of the phone, but still no case for the music as the phone To solve the profit problem, although the music TV ecosystem can be established, but the relative TV, cell phone life cycle is too short, trying to make up for the profitability of mobile phone through the dodger system seems impassable, as the failure of mobile phone eco-test will shut down the Internet model to explore the door of the mobile phone brand.
The phone is still the phone, the Internet can change the phone channel, but difficult to change the rules and regulations to upgrade the operation of the industry. The so-called Internet phone can rest!